Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: wipe out with the IBB diving -5.76%

October 24, 2018 6:11pm

The Advance/Decline Line was shattered 3/41 and 1 flat

This was a fear based panic attack …

As I had stated in the pre-open: “Investors … WAIT before re-entering buying into sector equities; GRAVITY is STILL a force in this market! There will be some equity bursts out of the gate but, I would NOT trust any of them …!”

Pre-open indications: 5 HITs and 2 MISS

Who is defining the metrics for individual investors?

RMi’s daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.

I won’t apologize for being a “Devil’s Advocate” challenging views or consensus by building a better or possible case for an alternative explanation.

Daily analytics and metrics:

The Dow closed down -608.01 points or -2.41% to 24,583.42
The S&P closed down -84.59 points or -3.09% to 2,656.10
The NASDAQ closed down -329.14 points or -4.43% to 7,437.54

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

The open was positive with an A/DL of 29/15 and 3 flat;
The mid-day was negative with an A/DL of 6/35 and 4 flats;
The close was negative with an A/DL of 3/41 and 1 flat;

Pre-open indications:

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$3.60 – hit;
Athersys (ATHX) closed down -$0.09 – hit;
BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.43 – miss;
bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$9.67 – hit;
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$3.21 – hit;
Sangamo Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down -$1.05 – miss;
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down -$9.98 – hit;

Five (5) key metrics:

… The greatest volume to the downside: HSGX, VSTM, XON, SGMO and MDXG

… Upside volume was weighted to: BLFS, OSIR and CLBS

… Leadership ($) to the downside: SAGE (-$8.98), BMRN (-$7.36), BLUE (-$6.67), RARE (-$6.53) and RGNX (-$5.99)

Best moves ($) to the upside: BLFS (+$0.43), OSIR (+$0.30) and CLBS (+$0.09)

… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:

Wednesday was down -5.76% after indicating a NEGATIVE -0.59% in the pre-market;
Tuesday was down -0.48% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
Monday was down -1.44% after indicating a POSITIVE +0.01% in the pre-market;
Friday was down -1.58% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
Thursday was down -1.47% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
Last Wednesday was down -0.05% after indicating a NEGATIVE -0.11% in the pre-market;

Henry’omics:

The Dow erased all of its gains for 2018. The S&P 500 also turned negative for the year while the NASDAQ entered correction territory.

Sector equities have taken a beating this month. The Dow has dropped 7.1% in October, while the S&P 500 has pulled back 8.9% as the NASDAQ has tumbled 11.7%.

Investors have been grappling with increasing market volatility of late. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) widely regarded as the best gauge of fear in the market, traded above 24 on Wednesday and is up more than 100% this month.

Any of Tuesday’s upside was wiped-out on Wednesday; the question is WHY?

Is about the initiation of Q3 quarterly LPS (Loss-per-share) results – NOT TOTALLY, it’s about CONFIDENCE in the sector’s development programs.

The ONLY individuals making money are CEOs and their management teams WITHOUT regard to investors and their stake holdings!

As I stated yesterday, “Weakness is STILL on display”; well today it totally stood-out!

Review the range of the 3 upside from +$0.09 or +2.1% (CLBS) to +$0.43 or +3.45% (BLFS) while the 41 downside ranges from -$0.0048 or -0.58% (AST) to -$8.98 or -7.32% (SAGE) with a 1 flat close (RENE.L);

Interesting stat: Volume INCREASED … look at the depth – 0 out of 3 of the upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume while the downside experienced 26 having greater volume (than the 3 month average) out of 41.

From the pre-open newsletter, “getting a handle on the sector’s fallout … we will be still facing the shifting sands of share pricing. The disregard of fundamentals in these past weeks does not improve our view of the short-term. While damage to shareholder value is retrievable over time; suspicion lingers on risk, volatility and liquidity.”

October sessions:

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 41 decliners, 3 advancers and 1 flat;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 21 advancers and 1 flat;

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 33 decliners, 11 advancers and 1 flat;

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 8 advancers and 3 flat;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 8 advancers and 1 flat;

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 25 decliners, 19 advancers and 1 flat;

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 4 decliners, 39 advancers and 2 flats;

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 17 advancers and 2 flats;

Friday closed POSITIVE with 9 decliners, 35 advancers and 1 flat;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 38 decliners, 7 advancers and 0 flat;

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 42 decliners, 2 advancers and 1 flat;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 18 advancers and 4 flats;

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 10 advancers and 1 flat;

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 17 advancers and 2 flat;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 35 decliners, 8 advancers and 2 flat;

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 27 advancers and 2 flat;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 12 advancers and 1 flat

Monday (10/1) closed NEGATIVE with 33 decliners, 13 advancers and 1 flat;

In 19 sessions in September – there were 10 negative closes and 9 positive close;
In 21 August sessions – 6 had negative and 15 had positive closes

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.