November 12, 2018 8:13am
What real news have we read – NONE, most quarterly estimates miss; as the short-term gets dumpier, the near-term is opaque and there are serious questions for the long-term in what will materialize.
Veteran’s Day, bond market is closed, hopefully a mini-rally today after a dreadful week and mixed month to date
Thank a veteran, we served!
Pre-open indications: 3 BUYs and 0 SELL
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths – it’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized!
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U.S. stock index futures point to a slow and mixed market
Dow futures are DOWN -0.10% (-25 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.13% (+9 points)
U.S. stock index futures pointed to a mixed open Monday morning amid a surge in benchmark crude prices.
Europe markets turn lower on tech sell-off;
Asia markets traded mixed
Data docket: None today
- The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) is indicating a POSITIVE +0.06% UPSIDE in Monday’s pre-market;
- The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is NOT indicating in Monday’s pre-market;
- The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) is NOT indicating
- The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is indicating a POSITIVE +0.03% UPSIDE in Monday’s pre-open
The session could see low trading volumes as the bond markets are closed as the U.S. marks Veterans Day.
From Friday’s night’s newsletter: consensuses beware; it helps if met in very few cases and destroys in many others “
Review the range of the 6 upside from +0.04% (VYGR) to +13.52% (BLFS) while the 39 downside ranged from -0.64% (FIXX) to -18.53% (XON) with 0 flat closes.
Decreasing volume stat:
• 3 out of 6 of the upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume
• 10 out of the 39 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average).
“The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) in a week’s history lesson; a five session aggregate of a negative -0.3% after 3 downside sessions out of 5!
- In 7 session in November – there was 3 positive closes and 4 negative session;
- In 23 sessions in October – there were 17 negative closes and 6 positive sessions;
- In 19 sessions in September – there were 10 negative closes and 9 positive sessions;
- In 21 August sessions – 6 had negative and 15 had positive closes
- Review the range of the 19 upside from +0.35% (FIXX) to +24.53% (AST +$0.26) while the 26 downside ranged from -0.24% (KOOL -$0.0007) to -41.16% (MDXG) with 1 flat closes (RENE.L).
Decreasing volume stat:
- 7 out of 19 of the upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume
- 10 out of the 26 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average).
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:
Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed down -$0.31 to $6.70 on Friday after Thursday’s report of earnings of $1.2 M or $0.07 per share, compared to a net loss of $1.4 M for Q3/17 beating estimate of a loss of $0.50 per share, compared to loss of $0.08 per share a year ago. These figures were adjusted for non-recurring items. This “Q” represents an earnings surprise of 114%. Cash position amounted to $105.4; thus a “runway” until 2020 – Maintaining BUY;
CRISPER Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$1.33 to $36.37 after Thursday’s -1.15 to $37.70, Wednesday’s +$3.79 or +10.81% to $38.85 after reporting Q3 (a net loss of $50.7 M or -$1.07 per share) and enrollment for a P1/2 trial of CTX001 for β-thalassemia is currently open at multiple clinical trial sites in Europe, and the first patient has been enrolled in the trial. $487.3 M in cash extends a lot of “runway” – Maintaining BUY;
Verastem (VSTM) closed down again -$0.21 to $5.51 after Thursday’s -$0.13 to $5.72 after Wednesday’s +$0.76 or +14.93% to $5.85. VCEL took a beating after their “beat” expectations of an estimate of -$0.72 and revenue of $14.5 M versus estimate of $6.6 M. – BUY;
Vericel VCEL) closed down -$0.49 to $16.11 after Thursday’s $16.60, Wednesday’s $17.09, Tuesday’s $16.65 after a blow-out revenue “Q” and Monday’s $11.54 – Now they “key” a 2 B knee repair market – SELL to BUY;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.