November 12, 2018 5:41pm

The risk barometer has registered - high


Pre-open indications: 2 HITs and 2 MISS

Crispers get stir fried yet again: CRSP -$0.20, EDIT -$0.76 and NTLA -$1.48; I kept telling many, they had become trading vehicles.


Who is defining the metrics for investors?

Some have stated, “I am the “weatherman” of the sector; forecasting and presenting conditions of the sector in a given period.”

There are a variety of end uses to sector forecasts because they are used to protect your portfolio’s life and value.


Daily analytics and metrics:

The Dow closed down -602.12 points or -2.32% to 25,387.18

The S&P closed down -54.79 points or -1.97% to 2,726.22

The NASDAQ closed down – 206.03 points or -2.78% to 7,200.87


From the pre-open newsletter, “… sentiment resides in trading. What real news have we read – NONE, most quarterly estimates miss; as the short-term gets dumpier, the near-term is opaque and there are serious questions for the long-term in what will materialize.”


The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:   

The open was negative with an A/DL of 8/37 and 0 flat;

The mid-day was negative with an A/DL of 4/40 and 1 flat;

The close was negative with an A/DL of 4/40 and 1 flat;


Pre-open indications: 2 HITs and 2 MISS

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed up +$0.35 – hit;

CRISPER Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -0.17 – miss;

Verastem (VSTM) closed down -$0.44 – miss;

Vericel VCEL) closed down -$0.15 – hit;


Five (5) key metrics: 

… Greatest volume to the downside:  MDXG, HSGX, SGMO, XON and VSTM

… Upside volume was weighted to:  FATE, ATHX, AGTC and CLBS

… Weakness ($) to the downside:  SAGE (-$9.50), BLUE (-$6.73), ALNY (-$4.49), RGNX (-$3.65) and RARE (-$3.14)

… Best moves ($) to the upside:  CLBS (+$0.54), AGTC (+$0.35), FATE (+$0.18) and ATHX (+$0.03)

… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:

  • Monday was down -3% after indicating a POSITIVE +0.06% in the pre-market;
  • Friday was down -2.21% after indicating a POSITIVE +0.08% in the pre-market;
  • Thursday was down -0.77% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
  • Wednesday was up +2.3% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
  • Tuesday was up +0.44% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
  • Last Monday was down -0.06% after indicating a positive +0.13% in the pre-market;



The title says it all as ... in the context of over-reaching valuations and hosile sessions in the month of November ... we NEED to expect ... blistering declnes!

It's all about RISK to platforms NEEDING clinical results.

Monday's losses bring the Dow's decline over the past two sessions to 804 points; it closed at 25,387.18. The NASDAQ pulled back 2.8% to 7,200.87 and fell back into the correction territory it first entered during the October market rout.

The S&P 500 traded in correction territory, down more than 10% from its 52-week high.

In late-afternoon trading, my coverage list advance after feeling the low of 40 of 45 down following the opens 38 down and closed  with an Advance/Decline Line (A/DL) of 4 advancers, 40 decliners and 1 flat maintaining the mid-day number.


Today's barometer 

My beginning month “sucker’s bet financing call of HSGX has come to fruition - dived again on Monday -$0.03 to $0.48 after Friday’s -$0.03 to $0.51, Thursday’s -$0.54, Wednesday’s -$0.54, Tuesday’s $0.56 and last Monday’s $0.55 - still going nowhere;

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed up +$0.35 or +5.22% to $7.05 after Friday’s $6.70 and Thursday’s $7.01 - there is still NO clinical DATA;

I had been FRETTING about VCEL’s upside journey (Monday was down again -$0.08 after Friday was down -$0.49, Thursday’s -$0.49 after Wednesday’s +$0.44 ($17.09) and Tuesday’s +$5.11 ($16.65) from Monday’s $11.54 – RIGHT again, reminded me of the Icarus’ myth!

I also believe (*MY opinion*) continues to be realized as Biostage (BSTG) on Friday dived again -$0.06 with 542 shares traded after TRIPPING  -$0.44 with 112 shares traded – so much interest in the company <sarcasm>) after last Thursday’s -$0.11 to $3.20. BSTG is still a ship that is “listing and ready to sink”;

Percentage indicators:

Review the range of the 4 upside from +1.6% (ATHX) to +11.76% (CLBS) while the 40 downside ranged from -0.10% (OSIR) to -27.70% (MESO) with 1 flat closes (RENE.L.

Decreasing volume stat:

  • 2 out of 4 of the upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume
  • 16 out of the 40 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average).


November sessions:

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 40 decliners, 4 advancers and 1 flat;

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 39 decliners, 6 advancers and 0 flat;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 19 advancers and 1 flat;

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 32 advancers and 1 flat;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 21 advancers and 2 flats;

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 35 decliners, 7 advancers and 3 flats;

Friday closed POSITIVE with 20 decliners, 22 advancers and 3 flats;

Thursday (11/1) closed POSITIVE with 3 decliners, 42 advancers and 0 flat;

  • In 23 sessions in October – there were 17 negative closes and 6 positive closes
  • In 19 sessions in September – there were 10 negative closes and 9 positive close;
  • In 21 August sessions – 6 had negative and 15 had positive closes



Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.