Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: another plunge to the downside in a de-risking session

November 19, 2018 5:56pm

The real issue is the lack of news and visibility in the sector as well as the “grind” of quarterly results with low volume takes its toll on momentum

How many times, can one be right! Consider these end-of-day results as Tuesday’s primer.

Who is defining the metrics for investors?

Some have stated, “I am the “weatherman” of the sector; forecasting and presenting conditions of the sector in a given period.”

Today's thematic, "Skim if you can trim, buy if it will fly and sell if compelled!

Daily analytics and metrics:

The Dow closed down – 305.48 points or -1.56% to 25,017.74
The S&P closed down -45.54 points or -1.66% to 2,690.73
The NASDAQ closed down – 219.40 points or -03.03% to 7,028.48

From the pre-open newsletter, “confidence perceived is not always value achieved. One trader’s golden upside is another’s disposable tin.”

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

The open was negative with an A/DL of 7/36 and 2 flats;
The mid-day was negative with an A/DL of 4/39 and 2 flats;
The close was negative with an A/DL of 7/37 and 1 flat;

Pre-open indications:

I had stated, “The sector is a game in motion – today its “pool” after the break there are too many scattered balls without clear shots to the pockets! I’ll let others move to table to line-up some clear moves and shots!”

Five (5) key metrics:

… Greatest volume to the downside: SGMO, VSTM, XON, GBT and QURE

… Upside volume was weighted to: MDXG, KOOL, HSGX, AGTC and BCLI

… Weakness ($) to the downside: BLUE (-$5.94), RGNX (-$4.78), SAGE (-$4.51), AXGN (-$3.59) and GBT (-$3.30)

… Best moves ($) to the upside: MDXG (+$1.46), OSIR (+$0.26), KOOL (+$0.15), CLBS (+$0.04) and BCLI (+$0.02)

… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:

Monday was down -2.14% after indicating a NEGATIVE -0.22% DOWNSIDE in the pre-market;
Friday was up +0.86% after indicating a POSITIVE +0.14% UPSIDE in the pre-market;
Thursday was up +2.19% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
Wednesday was down -2.03% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
Tuesday was down -0.4% after indicating a POSITIVE +0.06% in the pre-market;
Last Monday was down -3% after indicating a POSITIVE +0.06% in the pre-market;

Henry’omics:

Sector equities fell to the downside with a big thud on Monday as the biggest and most popular cell therapy stocks plunged as bluebird bio (BLUE -$6.94 or -4.74%) and Regenxbio (RGNX -$4.78 or -7.39%) led the losses while the upsiders MiMedx (MDXG +$1.40 or +54.90%) and Osiris (OSIR -$0.26 or -2.51%) or a current criminal “proceeder” and a past contemporary defendant led the gainers.

It’s going take some “real and good” news to replace the skepticism in “our” universe!

Crispers bounced again after last week’s hop-scotch trading:

CRSP closed down -$3.12 or -8.4%;
EDIT closed down -$1.81 or -6.25%;
NTLA closed down -$1.15 or -6.44%;

I kept telling many, they had become trading vehicles and they have been!

Athersys (ATHX) has kept with my down side projections -$0.09 killing any of last week’s ups;

BioLife Solutions (BLFS) has also fulfilled my INCONSISTANT and UNSUSTAINABLE thesis as it dropped -$0.97 or -8.82% to $10.03;

Brainstorm cell therapy (BCLI) closed up +$0.02 to $3.17after reporting a NEW (?) IND in a second indication - progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). BCLI plans to initiate a P2 study for progressive MS, expanding NurOwn beyond amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS, pivotal P3 ongoing). WHY not get their first indication’s data – they’re always LOW on cash …?

Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) is being maligned by this market post their “earnings” call flipping down -$3.30 or -9.09% to $33.01;

MiMedx (+$1.40 or +54.9%) and its fellow past criminal Osiris (OSIR +$0.26 or +2.51) have taken-on a life of their own under the legal sword of legal Damocles. One question is Vericel (VCEL -$0.36 or -2.12%) being judged by the same ruler <they’re selling-into comparable markets). Let’s hope they’re NOT into STUFFING the channel!;

Verastem (VSTM -$0.22 or 4.07%) can’t seem to spread its share pricing wings – is it a management credibility issue?

Tonight’s percentage (%) indicators:

Review the range of the 7 upside from +0.29% (AGTC) to +54.9% (MDXG) while the 37 downside ranged from -0.22% (IONS) to -11.23% (AXGN) with 1 flat closes (RENE.L).

Volume stat:

2 out of 7 of the upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume
12 out of the 37 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average).

November sessions:

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 37 decliners, 7 advancers and 1 flat;

Friday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 28 advancers and 3 flat;

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 33 advancers and 0 flat;

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 7 advancers and 2 flats;

Tuesday closed NEUTRAL with 21 decliners, 21 advancers and 3 flats;

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 40 decliners, 4 advancers and 1 flat;

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 39 decliners, 6 advancers and 0 flat;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 19 advancers and 1 flat;

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 32 advancers and 1 flat;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 21 advancers and 2 flats;

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 35 decliners, 7 advancers and 3 flats;

Friday closed POSITIVE with 20 decliners, 22 advancers and 3 flats;

Thursday (11/1) closed POSITIVE with 3 decliners, 42 advancers and 0 flat;

In 23 sessions in October – there were 17 negative closes and 6 positive closes
In 19 sessions in September – there were 10 negative closes and 9 positive close;
In 21 August sessions – 6 had negative and 15 had positive closes

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

What's Happening Today

1 hour 45 min ago
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: head and knee down

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Please e-mail us at hwm@regmedinvestors.com.

Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should be construed as guidance in RMi reviews.

The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.