November 20, 2018 8:05am

Conviction is flagging as risk, low volume and trading exploit investors

Do we weather the downfall, seek safer havens or spin and jockey short-term equity plays?


Weather few, seek more havens and trade any opportunity!


I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths – it’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized!

A trusted source of factual reporting of preludes and aftermaths!

There’s a difference between trust and conviction. Trust is something you can rely on, beyond certainty. Conviction doesn't demand that you, or anyone else, play by the rules. After gains, there’s pain; followed by advances, declines and other progressions or was it regressions?



U.S. stock index futures are headed downward into sell-off mode

Dow futures are DOWN -1.03% (-258 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -1.63% (-109 points)


U.S. stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Tuesday as tremors in tech stocks keep investors nervous.

European stocks were sharply lower, while waiting for any further developments surrounding Brexit.

Asian markets declined, mainland Chinese markets were lower, Japanese market also declined. Australia's ASX 200 was down 0.38% with almost all sectors in negative territory.


Data docket: At 8:30 a.m. ET, investors will be watching the U.S. Housing Starts numbers, followed by Philly Fed non-manufacturing data at the same time.


Tuesday’s indications:

  • The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) is indicating a NEGATIVE -0.47% downside;
  • The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is indicating a NEGATIVE -0.53% downside;
  • The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) is NOT indicating
  • The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is indicating a NEGATIVE -0.24% downside



Insight is about understanding perception; insight is also about putting into context what is relevant to expectation fulfillment!

Today's a good day for all who own biotech to reassess. Ask yourself, do you know why you own it? What are the catalysts? What's the pipeline look like? Do you understand the CEO's vision and what has to go right and how many different products it has so if one goes wrong it's not the end of the world?


From Monday’s night’s newsletter: “another plunge to the downside in a de-risking session. The real issue is the lack of news and visibility in the sector as well as the “grind” of quarterly results with low volume takes its toll on momentum.”

Last night’s percentage (%) indicators:

  • Review the range of the 7 upside from +0.29% (AGTC) to +54.9% (MDXG) while the 37 downside ranged from -0.22% (IONS) to -11.23% (AXGN) with 1 flat closes (RENE.L).

Volume stat:

  • 2 out of 7 of the upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume
  • 12 out of the 37 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average).

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) in a week’s history lesson; a five session aggregate of a negative -1.52% after 3 downside sessions out of 5!

  • In 13 session in November – there were 5 positive closes, 1 neutral and 7 negative closes
  • In 23 sessions in October – there were 17 negative closes and 6 positive sessions;
  • In 19 sessions in September – there were 10 negative closes and 9 positive sessions;
  • In 21 August sessions – 6 had negative and 15 had positive closes


Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:

My early morning juice includes a chaser of pessimism …

I am NOT selling into depreciated values, yet am I BUYING for ANY short “ride” to bring me closer to my purchase pricing.

I will be “re-aligning” my coverage list as the month ends … if I can “skip-out” on an equities January pricing – I’ll think of being GONE in a few companies whose expectation is suspect!


Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.