November 20, 2018 5:47pm
Another plunge to the downside after Monday’s de-risking session
Don’t try to catch a falling knife while “death crosses” are signaling
Who is defining the metrics for investors?
The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde might make for a great read, but it’s far less fun when these markets act like it’s their blueprint. Stocks have lately been alternating between the horrific and the benign.
I answer one question, in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money!
Some have stated, “I am the “weatherman” of the sector; forecasting and presenting conditions of the sector in a given period.”
Daily analytics and metrics:
- The Dow closed down -651.80 points or -2.21% to 24,465.64
- The S&P closed down -48.84 points or -1.82% to 2,641.89
- The NASDAQ closed down -119.65 points or -1.70% to 6,908.82
From the pre-open newsletter, “the turkey week challenge. Conviction is flagging as risk, low volume and trading exploit investors. Do we weather the downfall, seek safer havens or spin and jockey short-term equity plays? Weather few, seek more havens and trade any opportunity!”
The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:
- The open was negative with an A/DL of 3/41 and 1 flat;
- The mid-day was negative with an A/DL of 15/29 and 1 flat;
- The close was negative with an A/DL of 14/29 and 2 flats;
I had stated, I am NOT selling into depreciated values, yet am I BUYING for ANY short “ride” to bring me closer to my purchase pricing. I will be “re-aligning” my coverage list as the month ends … if I can “skip-out” on an equities January pricing – I’ll think of being GONE in a few companies whose expectation is suspect!
Five (5) key metrics:
… Greatest volume to the downside: MDXG, KOOL, SGMO, VSTM and ADVM
… Upside volume was weighted to: XON, ADRO, BLCM, ALNY and ONCE
… Weakness ($) to the downside: BLUE (-$3.04), QURE (-$2.69), SAGE (-$2.310, BMRN (-$2.24), EDIT (-$1.59)
… Best moves ($) to the upside: ONCE (+$1.63), ALNY (+$1.18), AXGN (+$0.930, RGNX (+$0.93) and BLCM (+$0.48)
… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:
- Tuesday was down -0.60% after indicating a NEGATIVE -0.47% DOWNSIDE in the pre-market;
- Monday was down -2.14% after indicating a NEGATIVE -0.22% DOWNSIDE in the pre-market;
- Friday was up +0.86% after indicating a POSITIVE +0.14% UPSIDE in the pre-market;
- Thursday was up +2.19% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
- Wednesday was down -2.03% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
- Last Tuesday was down -0.4% after indicating a POSITIVE +0.06% in the pre-market;
Pre-open title: “the turkey week challenge. Conviction is flagging as risk, low volume and trading exploit investors. Do we weather the downfall, seek safer havens or spin and jockey short-term equity plays? Weather few, seek more havens and trade any opportunity!”
From the title, “A death cross refers to when a price chart’s 50-day moving average, viewed by many as a short-term trend tracker, crosses below the 200-day moving average, which many recognize as a dividing line between longer-term uptrends and downtrends. Technicians view the bearish cross as marking the spot a short-term pullback graduates to a long-term downtrend.”
Sector equities fell to the downside again on Tuesday after Monday’s “thud” as the biggest and most popular cell therapy stocks plunged as bluebird bio (BLUE -$3.04 after Monday’s -$6.94) and uniQure NV (QURE -$2.69) led the losses while the upsiders Spark therapeutics (ONCE +$1.63) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.18).
November looks UGLY in 14 sessions in November – there were 5 positive closes, 1 neutral and 8 negative closes
- In 23 sessions in October – there were 17 negative closes and 6 positive sessions;
- In 19 sessions in September – there were 10 negative closes and 9 positive sessions;
MiMedx (MDXG) slipped -$0.40 after Monday’s +$1.40 and Osiris (OSIR) closed down -$0.04 after Monday’s -$0.26 or a current criminal “proceeder” and a past contemporary defendant led the gainers.
Crispers bounced again after last week’s hop-scotch trading:
- CRSP closed down Tuesday -$1.31 or -3.85 after Monday’s -$3.12 or -8.4%;
- EDIT closed down Tuesday -$1.59 or -5.86% after Monday’s -$1.81 or -6.25%;
- NTLA closed down -$0.32 or -1.92% after Monday’s -$1.15 or -6.44%;
- I kept telling many, they had become trading vehicles and they have …!
Athersys (ATHX) has kept with my down side projections closing down another -$0.04 or -2.08% after Monday’s -$0.09 killing any of last week’s ups;
BioLife Solutions (BLFS) has also fulfilled my INCONSISTANT and UNSUSTAINABLE thesis as it gained +$0.42 after Monday’s drop of -$0.97 or -8.82% to $10.03;
Brainstorm cell therapy (BCLI) closed up again +$0.02 after Monday’s +$0.02 to $3.17after reporting a NEW (?) IND in a second indication - progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). BCLI plans to initiate a P2 study for progressive MS, expanding NurOwn beyond amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS, pivotal P3 ongoing). WHY not get their first indication’s data – they’re always LOW on cash …?
Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) is being maligned by this market post their “earnings” call closing FLAT ($33.01) on Tuesday after Monday’s flip -$3.30 or -9.09% to $33.01;
MiMedx (MDXG closed down -$0.40 or -10.13% after Monday’s +$1.40 or +54.9% and its fellow past criminal Osiris (OSIR) closed down -$0.04 or -0.38% after Monday’s +$0.26 or +2.51 have taken-on a life of their own under the legal sword of legal Damocles. One question is Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$0.02 after Monday’s -$0.36 or -2.12% being judged by the same ruler <they’re selling-into comparable markets). Let’s hope they’re NOT into STUFFING the channel!
Verastem (VSTM) takes a hit again -$0.15 or -2.89% after Monday’s -$0.22 or 4.07% to $5.04 can’t seem to spread its share pricing wings – is it a management credibility issue?
Tonight’s percentage (%) indicators:
- Review the range of the 14 upside from +0.12% (VCEL) to +11.71% (BLCM) while the 29 downside ranged from -0.04% (HSGX) to -18.48% (KOOL -$0.085) with 2 flat closes (BSTG and GBT).
- 8 out of 29 upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume
- 7 out of 14 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average).
Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 14 advancers and 2 flat;
Monday closed NEGATIVE with 37 decliners, 7 advancers and 1 flat;
Friday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 28 advancers and 3 flat;
Thursday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 33 advancers and 0 flat;
Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 7 advancers and 2 flats;
Tuesday closed NEUTRAL with 21 decliners, 21 advancers and 3 flats;
Monday closed NEGATIVE with 40 decliners, 4 advancers and 1 flat;
Friday closed NEGATIVE with 39 decliners, 6 advancers and 0 flat;
Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 19 advancers and 1 flat;
Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 32 advancers and 1 flat;
Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 21 advancers and 2 flats;
Monday closed NEGATIVE with 35 decliners, 7 advancers and 3 flats;
Friday closed POSITIVE with 20 decliners, 22 advancers and 3 flats;
Thursday (11/1) closed POSITIVE with 3 decliners, 42 advancers and 0 flat;
- In 23 sessions in October – there were 17 negative closes and 6 positive closes
- In 19 sessions in September – there were 10 negative closes and 9 positive close;
- In 21 August sessions – 6 had negative and 15 had positive closes
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.