RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: the Gathering of the oversold was a Quickening of value

January 4, 2019 6:00pm

As in the “Highlander” movie, the “Gathering” is a byproduct of a share pricing “Quickening” as the IBB has a pre-market indication of +1.29%, then jumps +5.03%; a response and influence controlling the Wall Street “Game”. The end result is the same: the sectories still have an irresistible urge to not guide their own kind of uncertainties and risk challenges letting algorithms and traders set the course of events.

Pre-open indications: 4 HITs and 0 MISS

Out and about: Vericel (VCEL +$0.76 or +4.65% to $17.12) published outcomes data for 954 burn patients treated with Epicel® in the Journal of Burn Care and Research. The results demonstrated an increased survival rate for patients when compared to results reported for patients in the National Burn Repository with comparable burns. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE +$3.13 or +7.85% to $43.00) jumped Friday after its gene therapy showed promise in patients with an inherited disease that causes low blood sugar.

If you were a subscriber, you TOO could rack-up a profitable UPSIDE in your portfolio!

The 6 W’s: Who, what, where, when, why and what of it …

Daily analytics:

• The Dow closed up +746.94 points or +3.29% to 23,433.16
• The S&P closed up + 84.05 points or +3.43% to 2,531.94
• The NASDAQ was up + 275.35points or +4.26% to 6,738.60

Henry’omics:

Sector equities rallied on Friday after two positive pieces of news for the market.

• At 8:30 a.m., the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs in December. That blew past an expectation of 176,000 jobs. Later on Friday morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank will be patient in raising rates, quelling fears of tighter monetary policy in the near future.

Today was due a bounce, but at the same time, the major issues facing the sector are not resolved; we have potential Q4/18 earnings shortfalls upcoming!

From the pre-open newsletter: “it’s a bird, it’s a plane; no it’s a sector stock. 2018 proved that this is a short-term market, the RegMed sector will continue in a short-term game scenario and even greater sell-offs.”

In the daily sector metrics, review the weakness of the downside while volume remains low versus the strength of the upside which was balanced (of the 40 ups, 21 had greater volume than the 3 month average).

Leading gains were:  SAGE, BLUE, RGNX, ONCE and RARE followed by the downsiders – OSIR (after Thursday’s up), AST, BCLI, ADRO (after Thursday’s up) and MDXG (after Thursday’s up) dived

AGTC was UP again +$0.10 to $2.72 and was down -$0.03 on Thursday after Wednesday’s +$0.16 to $2.65 – there is $5.81 in cash per share as I have continually pointed out!

BSTG ($0.05 after Thursday’s flat at $2.15) is going BROKE as a NEW financing is being SOUGHT by maybe a convertible debt offering or even a bridge to what (?) - BEWARE! What and which U.S. investor would step-up, NO IND. Still a failed developmental company with management that has NEV ER DELIVERED on its promises wasting up to $55 M over the past four years! Their ONLY investors are the day traders and they will disappear after moving today’s price with 197 shares traded versus the 3 month average of 2.32K shares.

ATHX was up +$0.10 after with 420.8 K shares traded following Thursday’s -$0.02 after Wednesday’s +$0.04 to $1.48 with moderate (365.3 K shares traded) volume – 3 month average = 605.5 K shares; on 1/3/18 ATHX was priced at $1.82 and management expects investors to step-up re an option (is a possibility) from Helios??

The CHRISPERs were JUMPED after being CREAMED: CRSP (closed up +$2.15 after Thursday’s -$1.85, Wednesday’s+$1.30 and Monday’s $1.82), EDIT (closed up +$1.24 after Thursday’s -$1.38, Wednesday’s +$0.59 and Monday’s $2.03) and NTLA (closed up +$0.91 after Thursday’s -$0.57, Wednesday’s +$0.05 and Monday’s 0.68) – be prepared for a share pricing GLIDE and SLIDE and we have.

Pre-open indications: 4 hits and 0 MISS

• CRISPER Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$2.25 – hit;
• Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed up +$1.24 – hit;
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed up +$0.91 – hit;
• Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) closed up +$0.89 – hit;

Out and about:

Vericel’s (VCEL) Epicel is a permanent skin replacement produced from patients’ own cells and indicated for use in adult and pediatric patients who have deep dermal or full thickness burns comprising a total body surface area (TBSA) greater than or equal to 30%. The probable benefit of Epicel, mainly related to survival, has been previously demonstrated in two Epicel databases and one physician-sponsored study.

The publication summarized outcomes for the largest cohort of patients treated with Epicel published to date. The data set was compared to the National Burn Repository annual report which is the largest resource on epidemiology of thermal injury for patients admitted to burn centers and contains outcome data for 177,498 burn patients. 

The overall mortality rate by burn size was lower for Epicel-treated patients than that reported in the National Burn Repository 2016 Report. The mean TBSA of burns in patients from the Epicel cohort was 67.5%, with an overall survival at discharge rate of 84.4% (804/953). According to the data set reported in the 2016 American Burn Association National Burn Repository, burns greater than 65 to 70% TBSA are associated with a 50% case mortality rate.1 This comparative advantage in survival outcome was found to be consistent in both pediatric and adult patients treated with Epicel.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE +$3.13 or +7.85%) jumped Friday after its gene therapy showed promise in patients with an inherited disease that causes low blood sugar.

RARE stock jumped to $43.00, in higher than average volume.

RARE tested its gene therapy, DTX401, in three patients with glycogen storage disease. In this disorder, patients synthesize glycogen incorrectly, leading to low blood sugar. RARE studied three patients over the course of 12 weeks.

All three patients showed improved glycogen control — two of the results were clinically meaningful. Research suggests patients with low blood sugar can eat raw cornstarch before bedtime to help preserve glycogen in their bodies. <Investor’s Business daily>

From the pre-open newsletter: “it’s a bird, it’s a plane; no it’s a sector stock. 2018 proved that this is a short-term market, the RegMed sector will continue in a short-term game scenario and even greater sell-offs.”

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:   

• The open was positive with an A/DL of 40/4 and 1 flat;
• The mid-day was positive with an A/DL of 41/2 and 2 flats;
• The close was positive with an A/DL of 40/5 and 0 flats;

Daily sector metrics:

… Greatest volume to the downside:  ADRO, MDXG, OSIR, AST and BCLI

… Upside volume was weighted to:  HSGX, VSTM, IONS, XON and SGMO

… Weakness ($) to the downside:  OSIR (-$0.33), AST (-$0.05), BCLI (-$0.030, ADRO (-$0.01) and MDXG (-$0.00)

… Moves ($) to the upside:  SAGE (+$8.18), BLUE (+$5.65), RGNX (+$4.47), ONCE (+$3.29) and RARE (+$3.13)

… The week’s history lesson, the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:

• Friday was up +5.03% after indicating a POSITIVE +1.29% upside in the pre-market;
• Thursday was up +0.14% after indicating a POSITIVE +1.1% upside in the pre-market;
• Wednesday was up +0.15% after indicating a NEGATIVE -1.7% downside in the pre-market;
• Tuesday was a holiday;
• Monday was not reported;
• Last Friday was down -0.34% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;

More important: Tonight’s percentage (%) indicators ...  think they will last?

• Review the range of the 40 upside from +0.49% (FIXX) to +22.10% (HSGX +$0.04 to $0.22) while the 5 downside ranged from -0.12% (MDXG) to -6.94% (AST) with a 0 flat close.

Volume stat:  

• 21 out of the 40 upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume
• 2 out of the 5 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average)

January sessions:

Friday closed POSITIVE with 5 decliners, 40 advancers and 0 flats;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 11 advancers and 2 flats;

Wednesday (1/3/19) closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 34 advancers and 0 flats;

Q4 tracking:

• In 21 sessions in December – there were 8 positive close; 1 neutral, 2 market closes and 10 negative close;

• In 22 sessions in November – there were 1 holiday, 10 positive closes, 1 neutral and 10 negative closes;
• In 23 sessions in October – there were 17 negative closes and 6 positive closes

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.