January 25, 2019 6:47pm
What went right today: the IBB, NASDAQ and momentum to the upside with many of the “upsides” ranging +7.51% from +0.35% along with the Advance/Decline Line (A/DL) of 32/10 and 2 flats after a comparable Thursday
Pre-open Indication: 4 HITs and 0 MISS
The problem: volume is still very low (11 out of the 32 upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume while 1 out of the 10 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average) volume
That’s why the term “quantamental,” a blend of the two styles, may soon become common parlance among investors and traders
RegMed Investors’ provides the realities of volatility and share pricing in the sector.
- The Dow closed up +183.96 points or +0.75% to 24,737.20
- The S&P closed up +22.43 points or +0.85% to 2,664.76
- The NASDAQ was up +91.40 points or +1.29% to 7,164.86
Major indexes pared their gains slightly after Trump made the official announcement the government would temporarily re-open, as some traders were disappointed that it wasn't a more comprehensive agreement.
Sector equities rose on Friday as investors looked past low volume, the week’s volatility and the lack of conviction and confidence!
bluebird bio (BLUE +$7.01), BioMarin (BMRN +$2.76) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.26) led the gains as investors got back into a risk-taking mood before quarterly “earnings” as the shutdown ended with traders speculating on “larger” names.
… While weakness shone brightly in Verastem Oncology (VSTM - $0.26) with large volume, Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.21) – moderate volume and MiMedx Holdings (MDXG -$0.09) with low volume
Additional small caps “banging” bottoms were: HSGX, PSTI, AGTC, VCEL, BTX, BSTG and AST - with NO relief in sight!
The remainder of the month’s trading sessions will be critical for the RegMed sector which will establish whether market reaction to recent events is temporary or NOT maybe short-lived; however, the “antics” of pricing, volume and volatility are dependent on traders who are “picky” as their purchasing habits while algorithms initiate signals based on “rules” – with 99% of investors DON’T understand!
… When I am off the mark in pre-open forecasts, I am usually – early but at least I allocute!
The pre-open post stated, “Low volume upswing is a sign of the times but, what formula of momentum follows through especially on a Friday? I still think the sector is fragile!”
I also stated, “Another week draws to a close, as LOW volume defines momentum to the upside and downside.”
Pre-open indications: 4 HITs and 0 MISS
- Cellectis (CLLS) closed up +$0.78 – hit;
- CRISPRS Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$0.91 – hit;
- Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed up +$0.13 – hit;
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed up +$0.38 – hit;
The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:
- The open was positive with the A/DL to 25/18 and 2 flat;
- The mid-day stayed positive with an A/DL of 30/13 and 2 flats;
- The close was positive with an A/DL of 33/10 and 3 flats;
Tonight’s percentage (%) indicators:
- Review the range of the 32 upside from +0.35% (RGNX) to +7.51% (CUR +$0.0279) while the 10 downside ranged from -0.06% (VCEL) to -7.82% (VSTM) with 3 flat close (FIXX, ONVO and RENE.L).
Volume stat: extremely low
- 11 out of the 32 upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume
- 1 out of the 10 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average) volume
Daily sector metrics:
… Greatest volume (descending) to the downside: pinging to Q results
- VSTM, HSGX, MDXG, VCEL and SAGE
… Upside volume was weighted to:
- SGMO, XON, BMRN, ATHX and STML
… Weakness ($) to the downside: scrawny
- VSTM (-$0.28), SAGE (-$0.21), MDXG (-$0.09), AST (-$0.04) and BSTG (-$0.02)
… Moves ($) to the upside: engorging
- BLUE (+$7.01), BMRN (-$2.76), ALNY (+$2.26), IONS (+$1.69) and RARE (+$1.32)
… The week’s history lesson, the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:
- Friday was up +1.53% after indicating a positive +0.33% in the pre-open;
- Thursday was down -0.02% after NOT indicating;
- Wednesday was down -0.84% after indicating a negative -0.17% in the pre-open and -1.10% at the mid-day;
- Tuesday was down -1.58% after NOT indicating in the pre-open
- Monday was a market holiday
- The previous Friday was up +0.62% after NOT indicating in the pre-open
Friday closed POSITIVE with 32 decliners, 10 advancers and 3 flat;
Thursday closed POSITIVE with 31 decliners, 12 advancers and 2 flat;
Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 8 advancers and 1 flat;
Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 7 advancers and 2 flats;
Monday was a market holiday;
Friday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 30 advancers and 2 flats;
Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 20 advancers and 3 flat;
Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 20 decliners, 23 advancers and 2 flat;
Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 33 advancers and 1 flat;
Monday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 10 advancers and 3 flat;
Friday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 20 advancers and 2 flat;
Thursday closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 24 advancers and 2 flat;
Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 26 advancers and 1 flat;
Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 26 advancers and 1 flat;
Monday closed POSITIVE with 7 decliners, 38 advancers and 0 flats;
Friday closed POSITIVE with 5 decliners, 40 advancers and 0 flats;
Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 11 advancers and 2 flats;
Wednesday (1/3/19) closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 34 advancers and 0 flats;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.