Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: fundamentals are improving as sentiment edges the sector higher

April 29, 2019 6:03pm

But, don’t believe or bet on the illusion; never forget Murphy’s Law and/or algorithmic “rules” although the trend is currently friendly

Q1/19 results: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.74 and a slipping -$0.03 aftermarket) Q1 net loss was $48.4 M or -$0.93 per share compared to a loss of $28.3 M or -$0.62 per share for Q1/18. R&D increased to $14.3 M, SG&A increased $6.1 M from Q1/18 while revenue was $300 K and cash position was $437.5 M with a slipping “runway”

Pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 1 MISS (if sold, RENE.L made serious profit)

Follow-up BioMarin Pharmaceuticals (BMRN +$0.64) finally jumped after beating expectation in Q1/19 results yet took a hit on share pricing following “earnings” release

I remind investors of the latest vehicles of volatility - two words – news and LPS (loss-per-share) “earnings”!

A message to investors … Broken companies, with a “spent” cash position as new Q2 begins; inexcusable management incompetence need to be “extinguished” with investors ... uniting to push-out the exploiters. More is to follow ...

Markets and indexes:

The Dow closed up +11.06 points or +0.04% to 26,554.39
The S&P closed up +3.15 points or +0.11% at 2,943.03
The NASDAQ was up +15.45 points or +0.19% to 8,161.84

Henry’omics:

The S&P 500 reached an all-time high on Monday, but the session’s gains were kept in check as investors braced for today’s second release of my 45 coverage “earnings” reporting, while waiting for economic data and an announcement from the Fed.

I’d be BOOKING any returns and re-entering equities – it’s called trading or even market timing but, it works if one follows the indications as laid-out by RMi each day!

Sector equities rebounded further from Friday’s upswing …

From a technical perspective, the SPX is back in record high territory after closing above its September ’18 high,” Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray, said in a note. “However, for a record high week, volume was lackluster and only a relatively small percentage of constituents registered new highs” <CNBC>.

Let’s NOT forget, “On the data front, April’s nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for release Friday along with international trade numbers. Factory orders, construction spending and consumer confidence data are all due for release this week. The Fed is also set to hold a monetary policy meeting this week.”

Investors will be looking for clues about the central bank’s plan for its balance sheet moving forward, as well as hints on where Fed officials think the economy is headed.

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) miss and increased R&D, SG&A, net loss and slipping revenue although an offering helped the cash position – it is STIIL a MISS which affected their comparables … EDIT and NTLA!

Pre-open post, “inversion or transposition; the sector is beyond the measurement of risk, it’s all about perception and sentiment.”

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

The open was neutral with the A/DL at 20/20, 3 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);
The mid-day was positive with an A/DL of 24/18 and 1 flat and 2 acquired;
The close was positive with an A/DL of 22/20 and 1 flat and 2 acquired;

My pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 1 MISS

BioMarin Pharmaceuticals (BMRN) closed up +$0.64 – hit;
Athersys (ATHX) closed down -$0.08 – hit;
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$0.74 – hit;
Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed down -$1.49 - hit;
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$0.71 – hit;
ReNeuron Holdings (RENE.L) closed up +$15.00 – miss;
Verastem Oncology (VSTM) closed up +$0.03 – hit;

Cell and gene therapy company’s worst-performers were:

Monday: BLUE (-$2.00), BOLD (-$1.54), EDIT (-$1.49), GBT (-$1.17) and RGNX (-$1.15);
Last Friday: ONCE (-$3.51), ALNY (-$0.82), RARE (-$0.28), BMRN (-$0.22) and FATE (-$0.15)
The previous Monday: RGNX (-$3.57), ONCE (-$0.37), AXGN (-$0.34), GBT (-$0.33) and QURE (-$0.28)

Sector equities posting gains were:

Monday: RENE.L (+$15.00), SAGE (+$1.70), ALNY (+$1.47), BMRN (+$0.64) and BLFS (+$0.45);
Last Friday: RENE.L (+$48.00), SAGE (+$4.72), BLUE (+$4.10), CRSP (+$1.46) and QURE (+$0.90);
The previous Monday: CUR (+$0.08), RENE.L (+$6.50), CLBS (+$0.07), BOLD (+$0.83) and ADVM (+$0.12)

Tonight’s percentage (%) indicators:

Range of the 22 upside was +0.15% (ADVM) to +4.84% (RENE.L) while the 20 downside ranged from -0.08% (SGMO) to -5.37% (EDIT)

Upside volume stats: review the numbers, there is a message …

Monday: 8 out of the 22 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume
Last Friday: 5 out of 26 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume
The previous Monday: 1 out of the 20 upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume

Downside volume stats:

Monday: 2 out of the 20 downside experienced greater volume than the 3 month average;
Last Friday: 4 out of the 16 downside experienced greater volume than the 3 month average;
The previous Monday: 1 out of the 22 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average)

1 flat – ONVO – with 2 acquired (AST & OSIR)

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicator:

Monday closed down -0.08%
Friday closed up +0.65%
Thursday closed up +1.01%
Wednesday closed down -1.09%;
Last Tuesday was down -1.09%;
Last Monday was up +0.05%;

April sessions:

Monday closed POSITIVE with 20 decliners, 22 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 26 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 23 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 13 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 4 decliners, 36 advancers, 3 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 20 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday was a market holiday;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 7 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with36 decliners, 7 advancers, 0 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 23 advancers, 4 flat and 1 acquired (AST);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 14 advancers, 1 flat and 1 acquired (AST);

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 21 advancers, 1 flat and 1 acquired (AST);

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 11 advancers, 1 flat and 1 acquired (AST);

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 33 advancers, 1 flat and 1 acquired (AST);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 9 advancers, 1 flat and 1 acquired (AST);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 18 advancers, 3 flat and 1 acquired (AST);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 31 advancers, 1 flat and 1 acquired (AST);

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 30 decliners, 14 advancers, 0 flat and 1 acquired (AST);

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 27 advancers, 1 flat and 1 acquired (AST);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 32 advancers, 1 flat and 1 acquired (AST);

Monday (4/1) closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 23 advancers, 2 flats and 1 acquired (AST);

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.