May 6, 2019 5:29pm

After the open’s crash, life was breathed into the sector although volume was low and percentage upswings weak

Q1/19 results: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.74) missed “street” expectations

RMi outlines preludes and aftermaths defining the daily dose of factors, investment thesis and objectivity!

 

Markets and indexes:

  • The Dow closed down -47.10 points or -0.18% to 26,457.85
  • The S&P closed down -13.17 points or -0.45% at 2,932.47
  • The NASDAQ was down -40.71 points or -0.50% to 8,123.29

 

Henry’omics:

Sector equities flipped to the upside …

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:  

  • The open was negative with the A/DL at 6/34, 3 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);
  • The mid-day was positive with an A/DL of 25/15 and 3 flat and 2 acquired;
  • The close was positive with an A/DL of 32/8 and 3 flat and 2 acquired;

 … while indexes recovered the bulk of their earlier losses on Monday as investors bet China and the U.S. will still strike a trade deal despite President Trump’s threat to hike tariffs on Chinese imports over the weekend.

  • The market’s comeback accelerated after CNBC reported that a Chinese delegation will in fact still travel to the U.S. to continue negotiations this week, according to sources, albeit with a smaller group than originally planned.

The Dow was down as much as 471 points, while the S&P 500 traded down 1.2% at its lows. The NASDAQ was briefly down 2.2%.

 

Pre-open post, “China trade tensions deflate markets while a busy week is ahead in quarterly earnings; fourteen (14) of my covered companies … this week … should provide an even greater shift in sentiment to the downside.”

 

Cell and gene therapy company’s worst-performers were:

  • Monday: ALNY (-$3.21), RARE (-$0.74), IONS (-$0.72), BMRN (-$0.63) and AXGN (-$0.50);
  • Last Friday: ALNY (-$5.25), AGTC (-$0.09), VSTM (-$0.03) and KOOL (-$0.0014)
  • The previous Monday: BLUE (-$2.00), BOLD (-$1.54), EDIT (-$1.49), GBT (-$1.17) and RGNX (-$1.15);

Sector equities posting gains were:

  • Monday: RENE.L (+$20.00), BLUE (+$3.99), SAGE (+$3.69), NTLA (+$1.66) and VYGR (+$1.53);
  • Last Friday: RENE.L (+$20.00), RARE (+$2.86), SAGE (+$1.82), RGNX (+$1.82) and BLUE (+$1.34);
  • The previous Monday: RENE.L (+$15.00), SAGE (+$1.70), ALNY (+$1.47), BMRN (+$0.64) and BLFS (+$0.45);

 

Tonight’s percentage (%) indicators: 

  • Range of the 32 upside was +0.47% (AGTC) to +17.65% (MDXG) while the 8 downside ranged from -0.75% (BMRN) to -4.15% (ALNY)

Upside volume stats:  review the numbers …

  • Monday: 7 out of the 32 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Last Friday: 3 out of the 37 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

Downside volume stats …

  • Monday: 2 out of the 8 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume
  • Last Friday: 2 out of the 4 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume

3 flat – ONVO, ADRO and BTX - with 2 acquired (AST & OSIR)

 

Q1/19 results: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.74) …

RARE reported a Q1/19 loss of -$96.8 M or -$1.82 per share, after reporting a profit in the same period a year earlier (a net income of $30.3 M, or $0.63 per basic share and $0.62 per diluted share).

  • The income for Q1/18 included the $130.0 M gain from the sale of the priority review voucher (PRV). The net loss for Q1/19 reflected cash used in operations of $95.8 M compared to $89.5 M for Q1/18.

The results did not meet “street” expectations for a loss of $1.73 per share; RARE posted revenue of $18.2 M, which also fell short of “street” forecasts of expected $19.3 M;

Total operating expenses were $117.4 M compared with $107.2 million for Q1/18, including non-cash stock-based compensation of $20.2 M and $18.8 M in Q1 of 2019 and 2018.

Cash position was $715.3 M and a “runway” until early 2021.

RARE shares have climbed 55% since the beginning of the year. In the final minutes of trading on Monday, shares hit $67.24, a rise of 23% in the last 12 months.

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicator:

  • Monday closed up +0.85%
  • Friday closed up +1.82%
  • Thursday closed up +0.40 %
  • Wednesday closed down -0.81%
  • Tuesday closed down -0.83%
  • Last Monday closed down -0.08%

 

May’s sessions:

Monday closed POSITIVE with 8 decliners, 32 advancers, 3 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 4 decliners, 37 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 17 advancers, 3 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday (5/1) closed NEGATIVE with 30 decliners, 12 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.