June 27, 2019 6:26pm

What are the drivers of the upside moves other than being oversold?

Pre-open indications: as I stated, “Slim pickings or a feast (?) – I will drink the wine and stumble cautiously.”

Company news is more than quiet, it’s deadening – it’s also very clear many are protectively inaudible however, playing defense has been a road to many a share pricing depreciation


 

Over time periods of days, months and quarters; stock pricing go up and down depending on the mood of the market. Over longer time periods, stocks follow the fundamentals of the underlying companies – we would hope?

 

Markets and indexes:

  • The Dow closed down -10.24 points or -0.04% to 26,525.58
  • The S&P closed up +11.14 points or +0.38% at 2,924.92
  • The NASDAQ was up +57.79 points or +0.73% to 7,967.76

 

Henry’omics:

The sector (of my 45 covered companies) rose from the six (6) session bottom!

Leading to updrafts were Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$9.19) – I still believe it is an acquisition target, bluebird bio (BLUE +$4.24) – down so long it needed to rise, Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.29) – was oversold, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +1.59) – always a bounce back candidate and CRISPER Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.44) – after the hammering it has taken value was rusticated. While the downside stragglers -  ReNeuron (RENE.L -$10.00) was come due again, Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.13) an offering subdued its rise with a big hit to take <-$8.33 after Tuesday’s -$0.86), Spark Therapeutics (ONCE -$0.13) – still rolling without a Roche deal and AxoGen (AXGN -$0.11) just anticipating Q2 numbers.

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed higher in a broad-based rally on Thursday as investors looked to the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan this weekend for progress in the long-running U.S.-China trade dispute, which has whipsawed markets for months.

The benchmark S&P 500 snapped its four-day losing streak, closing within 1% of its all-time high, reached a week ago <Reuters>.

On the data front, the Commerce Department said the U.S. economy grew at a solid rate of 3.1% in the first quarter. But some components like consumer spending and business investments grew at a slower pace than previously estimated <CNBC>.

Volume is still running to the low and slow side!

What more is there to stay – the sector went up with the oversold headed to be overbought by “machine of algorithms” rules!

 

Thursday’s advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:  

  • The open was positive with an A/DL of 24/16 with 3 flats and 2 acquired;
  • The mid-day was positive with an A/DL of 29/12 with 2 flats and 2 acquired – the opposite of yesterday;
  • The close was positive with an A/DL of 31/11 and 1 flat and 2 acquired;

 

Pre-open post: “hoping for a trade deal; when offerings are announced and linger without pricing, they suffer the consequences of downward pricing suppression.”

Pre-open indications: as I stated, “Slim pickings or a feast (?) – I will drink the wine and stumble cautiously.”

The Advance/Decline (A/D) line swing says it all after Wednesday closed with a NEGATIVE with A/D line of 10/32, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

 

Worst-performers (bottom 5) were:

  • Thursday: RENE.L (-$10.00), GBT (-$0.13), ONCE (-$0.13), AXGN (-$0.11) and MDXG (-$0.09);
  • Wednesday: GBT (-$8.33), SAGE (-$6.95), RENE.L (-$2.50), ALNY (-$1.65) and RGNX (-$1.56);
  • Tuesday: BMRN (-$2.08), BLFS (-$1.16), ONCE (-$1.12), GBT (-$0.86) and RARE (-$0.72);
  • Monday: QURE (-$7.58), SAGE (-$5.82), ONCE (-$3.16), RGNX (-$3.06) and BOLD (-$3.02);

Posting gains (top 5) were:

  • Thursday: SAGE (+$9.19), BLUE (+$4.240, RARE (+$2.29), ALNY (+$1.59) and CRSP (+$1.44);
  • Wednesday:  ONCE (+$1.52), VCEL (+$0.78), BLFS (+$0.65), XON (+$0.250 and RARE (+$0.25);
  • Tuesday: BLUE (+$1.93), SAGE (+$1.37), EDIT (+$1.04), FATE (+$0.68) and NTLA (+$0.67);
  • Monday: MESO (+$0.34), GBT (+$0.29), KOOL (+$0.04), CLBS (+$0.03) and ONVO (+$0.01);

 

Upside volume stats:  to compare

  • Thursday: 2 out of the 31 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 4 out of the 10 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 20 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 7 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

  • Thursday: 5 out of the 11 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 6 out of the 32 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume
  • Tuesday: 7 out of the 21 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume
  • Monday: 8 out of the 35 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume

 

The week’s percentage (%) indicators: 

  • Thursday’s range of the 31 upside was +0.31% (PSTI) to +9.68% (SLDB) while the 11 downside ranged from -0.13% (ONCE) to -4.94% (RENE.L);
  • Wednesday’s range of the 10 upside was +0.42% (RARE) to +5.34% (PSTI +$0.03) while the 32` downside ranged from -0.14% (CRSP) to -13.34% (GBT);
  • Tuesday’s range of the 20 upside was +0.05% (BOLD) to +11.78% (MESO) while the 21` downside ranged from -0.15% (AXGN) to -9.63% (CUR -$0.03);
  • Monday’s range of the 7 upside was +0.46% (GBT) to +7.28% (MESO) while the 35 downside ranged from -0.49% (RENE.L) to -11.71% (CUR -$0.04);

1 flat – BSTG with 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and the Spark Therapeutics’ (ONCE) acquisition by Roche still being delayed

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicator:

  • Thursday closed up +1.38%
  • Wednesday closed down -1%
  • Tuesday closed down -0.21%
  • Monday closed down -2.13%

 

June’s sessions:

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 31 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 10 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 21 decliners, 20 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 35 decliners, 7 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 19 decliners, 22 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 14 advancers, 0 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 15 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 33 decliners, 9 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 32 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 30 decliners, 11 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 32 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 26 advancers, 0 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 7 advancers, 4 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEUTRAL with 21 decliners, 21 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 31 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 37 decliners, 5 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 17 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 32 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 25 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

 

Q2/19 so far:

  • In May, there were 14 negative, 1 holiday and 8 positive closes;
  • In April, there has been 10 positive and 11 negative closes;

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.