RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: Insight about share pricing is about understanding perception

July 11, 2019 7:11pm

It’s not hard to be right so often … one of my focuses is indication analysis. An indication can be a development of almost any kind. Specifically, it may be a confirmed fact, a possible fact, or an absence of “something”, a fragment of information or even an observation. The sole provision is that it provides insight to provide some vision into a likely course of action.

Pre-open indications: 5 HITs and 0 MISS

Don’t get comfortable, today’s market impacts Friday; If you were a subscriber … you would understand why!

“Five percent of the people think; ten percent of the people think they think; and the other eighty-five percent would rather die than think.”  Thomas A. Edison

Markets and indexes:

• The Dow closed up +227.88 points or +0.85% to 27,088.08
• The S&P closed up +6.84 points or +0.23% at 2,999.91
• The NASDAQ was down -6.49 points or -0.08% to 8,195.04

Henry’omics:

It’s all about Thursday’s upside - confidence perceived is not always value achieved!  Friday is an unknown yet, the trend is usually NOT our friend – let’s hope; Q2 results are being prepared with Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) reporting on 8/7 ahead of Athersys (ATHX) on 8/7.

Thursday’s advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:  

• The open was negative with an A/DL of 19/13with 1 flat and 2 acquired;
• The mid-day was negative with an A/DL of 13/28 with 2 flats and 2 acquired;
• The close was negative with an A/DL of 14/26 and 3 flats and 2 acquired

Pre-open post thoughts, “run sector run, the sellers are chasing, funds aren’t moving and investors are not motivated.”

I also stated, “I don’t have much to say other the … CAUTION! We've all experienced "gut churn”!  It's that feeling when your stomach stops to function, while you anticipate or wait for something versus anything to happen. What am I doing today – sitting and watching! I am not lazy in defining any upside or downside; but where is the news from “our’ Universe?”

The sector dived on Thursday after jumping on Wednesday (after plunging Tuesday, Monday and Friday) led by ReNeuron’s (RENE.L (-$32.50) downside with an upside led by Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.08) followed by bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.78).

Healthcare stocks were mixed after the Trump administration withdrew a rule that would kill rebates. Shares of pharmacy benefit managers gained as the news meant these companies would continue to benefit from after-market discounts from drug makers. Health insurers and drug distributors also rose.

 However, drug makers such as Merck & Co (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE) dropped at least 3% each and the NASDAQ biotech index slipped 1.47%.

The lack of progress in Washington suggests that the healthcare industry will face ongoing political pressure, <Reuters>.

Thursday’s market milestone was only the latest in the longest bull market in history yet, “our” sector lost its position in its upside!

In economic news, the U.S. consumer price index — a widely followed measure of inflation — rose more than expected last month, with the core CPI posting its biggest gain in 1½ years. But that failed to dent investors’ expectations that the Fed will deliver a rate cut <CNBC>.

Pre-open indication:

• Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) closed down -$0.76 – hit;
• CRISPER Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down - $0.65 – hit;
• Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed down - $0.16 – hit;
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$0.15 – hit;
• ReNeuron (RENE.L) closed down -$32.00 – hit;

Leading incliner stand-outs were:

• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE  +$2.08 after Wednesday’s+$2.66, Tuesday’s +$1.76 and Monday’s +$1.69);
• Bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.78);
• Ions Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.25);
• AxoGen (AXGN +$0.18);
• Verastem (VSTM +$0.14);

While the downside stragglers –

• ReNeuron (RENE.L -$32.00 after Wednesday’s +$20.00, Tuesday’s +$10.00 and Monday’s +$10.00)
• BioMarin Pharmaceuticals (BMRN -$2,39 after Wednesday’s +$1.98, Tuesday’s -$2.00 and Monday’s -$1.61);
• uniQure (QURE-$1.61 after Wednesday’s -$2.89, Tuesday’s -$1.77 and Monday’s -$1.73);
• Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$1.38);
• Audentes Therapeutics (BOLD -$1.37)

Upside volume stats:  to compare

• Thursday: 3 out of the 14 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
• Wednesday: 4 out of the 25 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
• Tuesday: 7 out of the 13 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
• Monday: 8 out of the 18 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

Downside volume stats: NOTICE

• Thursday: 5 out of the 26 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
• Wednesday: 4 out of the 16 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
• Tuesday: 0 out of the 29 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
• Monday: 7 out of the 24 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

The percentage (%) indicators: 

• Thursday’s range of the 14 upside was +0.11% (RGNX) to +12.81% (ONVO) while the 26 downside ranged from -0.05% (GBT) to -11.82% (RENE.L);
• Wednesday’s range of the 25 upside was +0.05% (AXGN) to +7.84% (RENE.L) while the 16 downside ranged from -0.56% (BLCM) to -6.14% (ONVO);
• Tuesday’s range of the 13 upside was +0.28% (BLCM) to +11.10% (ADVM) while the 29 downside ranged from -0.17% (BLUE) to -5.71% (VSTM);
• Monday’s range of the 18 upside was +0.06% (BLUE) to +22.53% (ADVM) while the 24 downside ranged from -0.10% (AXGN) to -5.29% (RARE);

3 flat – BSTG, SGMO and XON with 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and the Spark Therapeutics’ (ONCE) acquisition by Roche still being delayed

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicator:

• Thursday: closed down -1.47%;
• Wednesday: closed down -0.28%;
• Tuesday: closed up +1.02%;
• Monday: closed down -1.36%;

July’s sessions and the beginning of Q3:

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 14 advancers, 3 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 25 decliners, 16 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 13 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 18 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 19 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday was a holiday;

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 31 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 30 decliners, 11 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 19 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.