September 18, 2019 7:45am
A strong belief that something will happen or be the case in the future
The expected value is a key aspect of how one characterizes a probability distribution.
It is possible to construct an expected value equal to the probability of an event by taking the expectation of an indicator function that is one if the event has occurred and zero otherwise. This relationship can be used to translate properties of expected values into properties of probabilities, e to justify estimating probabilities by frequencies.
The Bottom Line: principle is that the value of a future gain should be directly proportional to the chance of getting it.
Timely insights have line extensions within or to a volatile pricing universe. Thus my line in writing is separating actionable numbers or intelligence and news into a short-term investment thesis to tackle the “unknown unknowns”
Dow futures are DOWN -0.13% (-36 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.17% (-6 points) and NASDAQ futures are also DOWN -0.16% (-13 points)
U.S. stocks were set to open slightly lower Wednesday morning as a key policy decision from the Fed loomed;
European stocks were slightly higher, amid investor caution ahead of an expected U.S. interest rate cut while the pan-European Stoxx 600 edged up around 0.1% during morning deals, with most sectors and major bourses in positive territory;
Asia Pacific stocks mixed as investors await Fed interest rate decision. In mainland China, shares were up by the afternoon, as the Shanghai composite gained 0.39% and the Shenzhen component was 0.14% higher. The Shenzhen composite also rose 0.114%.
Data docket: The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points despite a recent fall in energy prices. This would be the bank’s second rate cut in a decade, after the central bank decided to lower the Fed Funds Rate to a range of 2.0%-2.25% in July. Chairman Jerome Powell will address the media on Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Market focus is largely attuned to the U.S. central bank, with policymakers at the Federal Reserve set to conclude their two-day meeting later in the session.
A quarter-point rate cut is seen as a near-certainty, but investors are also expected to closely monitor the central bank’s statement and economic projections.
Go, go cell therapy and rah, rah gene therapy companies swim the currents of Fed cut rush – sis-sum-bah!!
From Tuesday’s evening post, “the sector turns and burns. Wednesday could be an implicating day; the Fed is expected to cut the benchmark rate by one quarter of a percentage point to a range of 1.75% to 2%. Could it push “our” universe back into a safe haven and “some” upside to the oversold? Reiterating, the need for positive clinical read-outs.”
• The NASDAQ was up +32.47 or +0.40% to 8,186.02;
• The IBB closed up +0.05% while the XBI also closed down -0.29%
• The close was positive with an Advance/Decline (A/D) line of 14/27 and 2 flat and 2 acquired;
• The range of the 14 upside was +0.04% (EDIT) to +17.09% (CLBS) while the 27 downside ranged from -0.13% (BLUE) to -7.02% (XON);
• 3 out of the 14 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
• 9 out of the 27 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Q3/19 to date:
- In July, there were 9 positive, 1 holiday and 13 negative closes;
- In August there had been 12 negative and 10 positive closes
- In September there has been 6 positive, 1 holiday and 5 negative close
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:
*** Staying on message: What will be ‘will be but, I’d be cautious – let the machines and algorithms do their best or worst for entering this sector …
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.