Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: the curtain came down abruptly on the sector

October 8, 2019 6:19pm

There’s no strength in volume as many gains are wiped out

As investors reduce risk; it’s all about clinical data and I don’t see or hear much at all

It’s all based on U.S. – China trade talk deal diminishes

It's a daunting task to understand risk, seeing the unforeseen; on the basis of my own “rules”, I set-up my own “warning analysis” which isn’t machine oriented!

Just like algorithms, rules-are-what-we-make-of-them. The take-away, don’t dwell on what’s happened but, learn the lesson of timing – Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) results are being “formulated”.

The Dow closed down -159.05 points (-0.60%), the S&P closed down -45.73 points (-1.56%) and the NASDAQ closed down - 1.32.52 points (-1.67%)

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Tuesday the IBB closed down -1.80% while the XBI closed down -1.52%
Monday the IBB closed up +0.18% while the XBI closed down -0.08%
Friday the IBB closed up +0.74% while the XBI closed up +0.16%

Henry’omics:

Sector equities and market indexes fell sharply on Tuesday as investor optimism around the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks faded.

Slinging to the upside were: Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.01), Audentes Therapeutics (BOLD +$0.44), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.76) and Biostage (BSTG +$0.07).

While the sector balcony fell from the third floor to the foundation!

Markets found some support after Fed Chair Powell said the central bank will expand its balance sheet “soon.” He noted this measure will be used as a response to the recent funding issues the bond market faced in recent weeks.

On the data front, U.S. producer prices posted their biggest drop in eight months in September, dragged down by lower costs for goods and services. Producer prices are an indicator of inflation and a decline could give the Federal Reserve more room to ease monetary policy <CNBC>.

It was agood day to stick your head in the sand, your wallet in the draw and your portfolio in the safe!

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

Tuesday the close was negative with an A/D line of 4/37, 1 flat, 1 reversed merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired;
Monday the close was negative with an A/D line of 17/25, 1 flat and 2 acquired;
Friday the close was positive with an A/D line of 24/17. 2 flats and 2 acquired;

Decliners:

ReNeuron (RENE.L -$10.00 after Monday’s -$2.50 after Friday’s +$14.50 after Thursday’s -$38.00, Wednesday’s -$64.00, Tuesday’s -$20.00 and last Monday’s +$17.50);
CRISPER Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.72 after Monday’s +$1.44);
Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.56 after Monday’s +$0.30);
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY (-$1.49);
Ions Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.40 after Monday’s +$1.47);

Incliners:

Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +40.76 after Monday’s -$2.36 after Friday’s -$0.92 and Thursday’s +1.58);
Audentes Therapeutics (BOLD +$0.44);
Biostage (BSTG +$0.07);
Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.07);

The percentage (%) indicators:

Tuesday’s range of the 4 upside was +0.07% (FATE) to +3.07% (BSTG) while the 37 downside ranged from -0.01% (BLUE) to -9.62% (NTLA);
Monday’s range of the 17 upside was +0.47% (ONCE) to +5.36% (ONVO) while the 25 downside ranged from -0.05% (ALNY) to -7.08% (BTX);
Friday’s range of the 24 upside was +0.14% (IONS) to +8.63% (RENE.L) while the 17 downside ranged from -0.41% (PSTI) to -7.62% (ONVO);

Upside volume stats: to compare

Tuesday: 2 out of the 4 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Monday: 3 out of the 17 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Friday: 7 out of the 24 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume

Downside volume stats:

Tuesday: 10 out of the 37 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Monday: 8 out of the 25 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Friday: 3 out of the 17 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

1 flat – MDXG with 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and Spark Therapeutics’ (ONCE) acquisition by Roche is still being delayed (October?)

October’s sessions:

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 38 decliners, 4 advancers, 1 flat and 1 reverse merged (HSGX), 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 25 decliners, 17 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 24 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed NEUTRAL with 21 decliners, 21 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 18 advancers, 3 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 5 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.