October 15, 2019 5:47pm

Until we reach the fork of turning overbought

News: Regenxbio (RGNX +$2.91) ongoing P1 and P2a trial for the gene therapy program, RGX-314, found the majority of patients with wet age-related macular degeneration required fewer anti-VEGF injections — the current standard of care — to manage the condition, and experienced improvement in vision and retinal thickness when they received its treatment. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE +$1.10) the FDA has accepted for review the New Drug Application (NDA) for pipeline candidate UX007 (triheptanoin) for the treatment of long-chain fatty acid oxidation disorders (LC-FAOD). The FDA has assigned a standard review designation to the NDA and set a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) target date of 7/31/20.

The downside apparition stalks “our” universe and it’s not yet Halloween

In compiling my indication signals, I draw on logic, historical precedents, specific knowledge of the sector and its practices as to lessons learned.  It’s important for investors to identify and determine which indication is actually performance based.

 

While many talk about the shift in alternating sentiment, I monitor the pulse and focus of possible outcomes

 

The Dow closed up +237.44 points (+0.89%), the S&P closed up +29.53 points (+1%) and the NASDAQ closed up +100.06points (+1.24%)

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday the IBB closed up +1.84% while the XBI closed up +1.91%
  • Monday the IBB closed up +0.38% while the XBI closed down -0.18%
  • Friday the IBB closed up +1.24% while the XBI closed up +1.07%

 

Henry’omics:

Sector equities got off to a strong start after being oversold as markets closed sharply higher on Tuesday as the corporate (non -cell and gene therapy) earnings season got off to a strong start.

Tuesday’s moves come after a subdued trading session on Monday, with investors grappling with new worries on the U.S. China trade front <CNBC>.

The Dow marked its best close above 27,000 since Sept. 19; the S&P 500 was about 1% away from reaching an all-time high while the NASDAQ “waddled” to a strong close.

Markets also got a boost from positive news on the Brexit front.

  • Bloomberg News reported that negotiations between the UK and the European Union were leading closer to a draft Brexit deal. Rates around the world shot up on the report, while U.S. stocks reached their session highs. EU negotiator Michel Barnier also said a deal was possible this week.

 

Caution ... as optimism trades at a discount!

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:  

  • Tuesday the close was positive with an A/D line of 32/9, 1 flat, 1 reversed merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired;
  • Monday the close was negative with an A/D line of 12/28, 2 flats, 1 reversed merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired;
  • Friday the close was positive with an A/D line of 29/13, 0 flat, 1 reversed merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired;

 

Decliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$16,50 after Monday’s -$24.50 after Friday’s -$4.00, Thursday’s +$3.50, Wednesday’s -$2.50 and last Tuesday’s-$10.00;
  • Cesca Therapeutics (KOOL -$1.21);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.07);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.220;
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.15 after Monday’s +$0.59 and Friday’s +$1.05);

Incliners:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$4.93 after Monday’s -$1.22, Friday’s +$4.58, Thursday’s  -$1.33 and Wednesday’s -$2.21);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$2.91 after Monday’s -$4.71);
  • uniQure (+$2.89)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.71)
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.58);

 

The percentage (%) indicators: 

  • Tuesday’s range of the 32 upside was +0.27% (PSTI) to +8.36% (RGNX) while the 9 downside ranged from -0.12% (BLFS) to -19.74% (KOOL);

 

  • Monday’s range of the 12 upside was +0.22% (ALNY) to +15.12% (ADVM) while the 28 downside ranged from -0.09% (GBT) to -14.67% (RENE.L);

 

  • Friday’s range of the 29 upside was +0.41% (CRSP) to +11.23% (SLDB) while the 12 downside ranged from -0.20% (CLLS) to -4.96% (CUR);

 

Upside volume stats:  to compare

  • Tuesday: 4  out of the 32 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Monday: 3  out of the 12 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Friday: 7  out of the 29 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 9 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 28 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Friday: 8 out of the 13 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

 

1 flat – BSTG with 1 reverse merged (HSGX), 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and Spark Therapeutics’ (ONCE) acquisition by Roche is still being delayed (October?)

 

October’s sessions:

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 9 decliners, 32 advancers, 1 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 12 advancers, 1 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 29 advancers, 0 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 23 advancers, 2 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 27 decliners, 12 advancers, 3 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 38 decliners, 4 advancers, 1 flat and 1 reverse merged (HSGX), 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 25 decliners, 17 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 24 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed NEUTRAL with 21 decliners, 21 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 18 advancers, 3 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 5 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.