October 31, 2019 7:24pm

As earnings season continues and ramps up next week, volume continues to display truncated sentiment

Quarterly Earnings: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.53), a Q3 loss and revenue miss;  bluebird bio (BLUE -$2.19) Q3 loss and lower revenues and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.72) reported a Q3 loss yet topped revenue estimates

It's a daunting task to define risk parameters, seeing the unforeseen; on the basis of my own “rules”, I set-up my own “warning analysis” which isn’t machine oriented!  

 

The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then it doesn’t seem to be…

 

The Dow closed DOWN -140.46 points (-0.52%), the S&P closed DOWN -9.21 points (-0.30%) and the NASDAQ closed DOWN -11.61 points (-0.14%)

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday the IBB closed down -0.25% and the XBI closed down -0.17%
  • Wednesday the IBB closed up +0.13% while the XBI closed down -0.42%
  • Tuesday the IBB closed up +0.46% while the XBI closed down -0.28%
  • Monday the IBB closed up +1.34% while the XBI closed up +1.39%

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:  

  • Thursday the close was negative with an A/D line of 17/24, 1 flat, 1 reversed merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired;
  • Wednesday the close was negative with an A/D line of 13/27, 2 flats, 1 reversed merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired;
  • Tuesday the close was negative with an A/D line of 16/23, 3 flats, 1 reversed merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired;
  • Monday the close was positive with an A/D line of 27/12, 3 flat, 1 reversed merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired;

 

Henry’omics:

The cell and gene therapy sector (within my 45 covered companies) closed negative after indexes fell Thursday as three reporting companies reported losses, 2 missed revue estimates while one (1) beat and the Fed’s third rate cut of 2019. Investors took a pause and turned their focus to U.S.-China trade negotiations.

Within my universe of 45 companies, Thursday’s 18 positive sector close followed Wednesday’s 13 positive closing companies followed 23 companies on Tuesday following Monday’s 27, last Friday’s 30 upside closings and last Thursday’s 13 – a roller coaster fan club in six (6) sessions.

The roller-coaster trundles on as …

The major averages posted solid gains for October despite Thursday’s losses. The Dow gained (+0.03%) and S&P 500 gained 0.5% for the month while the NASDAQ ended October up +0.6%.

The major indexes also fell after the Chicago Business Barometer dropped to 43.2 in October. That mark’s the barometer’s lowest reading since 2015 and its second straight monthly decline. A reading below 50 indicates contraction <CNBC>.

 

The portfolio pain continues … MORE guidance needed ...!!

 

Decliners:

  • ReNeuron RENE.L -$4.50);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$2.36 after Wednesday’s -$2.15,  Tuesday’s -$2.04, Monday’s -$4.06 after Friday’s +$4.56 and last Thursday’s -$0.50;
  • bluebird bio (-$2,19);
  • CRISPER Therapeutics (CRSP -$1,67 after Wednesday’s +$3.12, Tuesday’s +$4.07 and Monday’s +$5.00);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.17);

Incliners:

  • uniQure NV (QURE +$1.41);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.15 after Wednesday’s -$4.69 and Tuesday’s -$1.97);
  • Spark therapeutics (ONCE +$0.90);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.71 after Wednesday’s +$0.52);
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.39);

 

The percentage (%) indicators: 

  • Thursday’s range of the 18 upside was +0.28% BCLI) to +11.76% (ADRO +$0.12) while the 22 downside ranged from -0.39% (XON) to -16.94% (CUR);

 

  • Wednesday’s range of the 13 upside was +0.39% (GBT) to +38.69% (CUR) while the 27 downside ranged from -0.17% (ONVO) to -13.60% (VSTM);

 

  • Tuesday’s range of the 16 upside was +0.21% (SGMO) to +9.07% (CRSP) while the 23 downside ranged from -0.37% (EDIT) to -6.11% (RARE);

 

  • Monday’s range of the 27 upside was +042% (ONCE) to +12.55% (CRSP) while the 12 downside ranged from -0.40% (MDXG) to -7.92% (KOOL -$0.37);

 

 

Upside volume stats:  to compare

  • Thursday: 3 out of the 17 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 5 out of the 13 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 8 out of the 16 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Monday: 8 out of the 27 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

  • Thursday: 7 out of the 24 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 5 out of the 27 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 8 out of the 23 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Monday: 3 out of the 12 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

 

 Flat – BSTG with 1 reverse merged (HSGX), 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and Spark Therapeutics’ (ONCE) acquisition by Roche could be soon according to rumors from FTC by year’s end.

 

October’s sessions:

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners; 17 advancers, 1 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 27 decliners; 13 advancers, 2 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners; 16 advancers, 3 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 27 advancers, 3 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 30 advancers, 1 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 27 decliners, 13 advancers, 2 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 16 advancers, 0 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 16 advancers, 3 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 28 advancers, 1 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 33 decliners, 7 advancers, 2 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 25 advancers, 0 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 23 advancers, 0 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 9 decliners, 32 advancers, 1 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 12 advancers, 1 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 29 advancers, 0 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 23 advancers, 2 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 27 decliners, 12 advancers, 3 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 38 decliners, 4 advancers, 1 flat and 1 reverse merged (HSGX), 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 25 decliners, 17 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 24 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed NEUTRAL with 21 decliners, 21 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 18 advancers, 3 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 5 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.