December 3, 2019 6:35pm

As I stated in the a.m. post, “sector defines hope with the sparkle of an acquisition” while others cry and ponder the future…as volume ramps up

Pre-open indications: 4 HITs (SELLs - VCEL -$0.23, and BOLD +30.29 to cash out); BUYs –RGNX +$3.82 and VYGR +$1.12) and 3 MISS (SLDB +$0.01, PSTI +$0.19 and SAGE -$2.43)

Presenting alternative hypotheses clarifies material facts and evidence available to investors. “Devil’s Advocacy” also provides greater confidence that the current sector outlook will hold-up to close scrutiny!

 

The remainder of the month’s trading sessions will be critical for the RegMed sector which will establish whether today’s reaction is short-lived, or will there be another fundamental correction 

 

The Dow closed DOWN -280.23 points (-1.01%), the S&P closed DOWN -20.67 points (-0.66%) and the NASDAQ closed DOWN -47.34 points (-0.55%)

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday the IBB closed up +0.70% while the XBI closed up +1.36%
  • Monday the IBB closed down -1.20% while the XBI closed down -1.33%
  • Friday the IBB closed up +0.22% while the XBI closed up +0.25%

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

  • Tuesday the close was positive with an A/D line of 25/12, 4 flats, 1 reversed merged (HSGX), 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired;
  • Monday the close was negative with an A/D line of 14/26, 2 flats, 1 reversed merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired;
  • Friday the close was positive with an A/D line of 26/15, 1 flat, 1 reversed merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired;

 

Henry’omics:

Sector equities swept the field of scattered downturns as gene therapy companies were placed back on upside track (for the most part) by the acquisition of Audentes Therapeutics (BOLD) by Astellas.

Applied Genetic Therapeutics (AGTC) barely slid to the upside (+$0.02 to $2.77) as their CMO quit just before clinical data points were to be declared.

Biostage (BSTG) issued a press release about a “clinical hold” on its Investigational New Drug (IND) application for its lead product candidate, the Cellspan Esophageal Implant (CEI) closing at $2.22. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biostage-receives-response-fda-investigational-210500619.html

While U.S. equities sank on Tuesday after President Trump suggested he may want to delay a trade deal with China until after the 2020 presidential election.

Stocks hit the lows of their day after the White House still plans on moving ahead with scheduled Dec. 15 tariffs on Chinese goods notwithstanding recent efforts at a “phase one” trade truce.

At that low of the day, the Dow was down 457.91 points, or 1.7%. The S&P 500 dropped as much as 1.7% while the NASDAQ traded lower by as much as 1.6%.

Stocks hit the lows of their day after Fox News reported that the White House still plans on moving ahead with scheduled Dec. 15 tariffs on Chinese goods notwithstanding recent efforts at a “phase one” trade truce <CNBC>.

 

Be more than prepared for deeper lows as the month rolls on..!!

 

Decliners:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$2,43 after Monday’s -$2.56, Friday’s +$3.87, Wednesday’s +$0.71 and last Tuesday’s -$1.86);
  • Spark Therapeutics (-$0.41);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.23);
  • Stemline Therapeutics (STML -$0.23);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.07 after Monday’s -$1.44);

Incliners:

  • Audentes Therapeutics (BOLD +$30.32);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$9.14);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$3.82 after Monday’s -$1.18);
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$1.12);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$1.18 after Monday’s+$1.14);

 

The percentage (%) indicators:

  • Tuesday’s range of the 25 upside was +0.08% (BLCM) to +105.98% (BOLD) while the 12 downside ranged from -0.06% (NTLA) to -3.40% (ONVO); 
  • Monday’s range of the 14 upside was +0.14% (ONCE) to +9.92% (SLDB) while the 26 downside ranged from -0.11% (IONS) to -9.22% (FATE); 
  • Friday’s range of the 26 upside was +0.05% (ADVM) to +7.31% (KOOL) while the 15 downside ranged from -0.02% (ONCE) to -5.94% (CLBS); 

 

Upside volume stats:  to compare

  • Tuesday: 16 out of the 25 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Monday: 9 out of the 14 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Friday: 6 out of the 26 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

  • Tuesday: 6 out of the 12 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Monday: 12 out of the 26 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Friday: 2 out of the 15 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

 

4 flat – BSTG, ATHX, AXGN and RENE.L with 1 reverse merged (HSGX), 1 dropped (BTX), 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and Spark Therapeutics’ (ONCE) acquisition by Roche could be soon according to rumors from FTC by year’s end.

 

December’s sessions:

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 25 advancers, 4 flats, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 19 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.