Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: the sector is what it is until it isn’t and even then it doesn’t seem to be

December 5, 2019 7:11pm

Pre-open indications: 3 HITs <ReNeuron (RENE.L -$2.00) Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$89.03); Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.97)> and 1 MISS < uniQure NV (QURE -$0.80)>

Timely insights have pricing lean-tos within a volatile cell and gene therapy universe

My "line" in writing is separating actionable numbers or intelligence and news into a short-term investment thesis to tackle the “unknown unknowns”

The Dow closed UP +28.01 points (+0.10%), the S&P closed UP +4.67 points (+0.15%) and the NASDAQ closed UP +4.03 points (+0.05%)

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Thursday the IBB closed down -1.54% while the XBI closed down -1.56%
Wednesday the IBB closed up +1.25% while the XBI closed up +1.16%
Tuesday the IBB closed up +0.70% while the XBI closed up +1.36%
Monday the IBB closed down -1.20% while the XBI closed down -1.33%

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

Thursday the close was negative with an A/D line of 9/31, 1 flat, 1 reversed merged (HSGX), 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired;
Wednesday the close was positive with an A/D line of 24/13, 4 flats, 1 reversed merged (HSGX), 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired;
Tuesday the close was positive with an A/D line of 25/12, 4 flats, 1 reversed merged (HSGX), 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired;
Monday the close was negative with an A/D line of 14/26, 2 flats, 1 reversed merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired;

Henry’omics:

The sector got zapped by the machines in sell-off as even investors are anxious but, without recourse concerning volatility!

Indexes ended Thursday’s session little changed as investors digested strong employment data while they monitored the latest news from the U.S.-China trade negotiations.

China and the U.S. have 10 days to reach a trade deal before additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods take effect. Those levies would target an additional $156 billion in Chinese goods.

U.S. weekly jobless claims dropped 203,000 last week, the Labor Department said. That’s below a (Reuters) estimate of 215,000. The print was the lowest in seven months. The report quelled fears stemming from a disappointing private payrolls number released Wednesday. It also comes a day before the government’s monthly nonfarm payrolls report <CNBC>.

This morning’s post, “after the sector has risen after volume has dawned, after fundamentals have fawned; after the NASDAQ, XBI and IBB have spawned, is there a theme or a swan song here for “spirits” to celebrate?

I also stated, “Skim if you can trim, buy if it will fly and sell if compelled!”

After writing last night, “the ups and downs of November – do you as an investor … TRUST this market, I would NOT.”

Leading the upside were Alnylam pharmaceuticals (ANY +$2.25) and Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.97) while downside include Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$89.03) and ReNeuron (RENE.L -$2.00).

Cell and gene therapy i.e. biotech is not for amateurs – that highs are extrodinary and the lows are even deeper – it's known that acquisitions sets the sector on fire while clinical failures douse the flames of share pricing!

Decliners:

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$89.03);
ReNeuron (RENE.L -$2.00 after Wednesday’s -$6.00);
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.39 after Wednesday’s -$1.03);
Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.34);
BioMarin Pharmaceuticals (BMRN -$1.21 after Wednesday’s +$1.06);

Incliners:

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +2.25);
Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.97 after Wednesday’s +$1.69);
AxoGen (AXGN +$0.56 after Wednesday’s -$0.82);
Mesoblast (MESO +$0.46);
Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.16 after Wednesday’s +$1.07);

The percentage (%) indicators:

Thursday’s range of the 9 upside was +0.38% (RARE) to +7.35% (MESO) while the 31 downside ranged from -0.02% (CLLS) to -59.67% (BOLD);
Wednesday’s range of the 24 upside was +0.29% (VCEL) to +9.03% (AGTC) while the 13 downside ranged from -0.14% (VYGR) to -4.84% (AXGN);
Tuesday’s range of the 25 upside was +0.08% (BLCM) to +105.98% (BOLD) while the 12 downside ranged from -0.06% (NTLA) to -3.40% (ONVO);
Monday’s range of the 14 upside was +0.14% (ONCE) to +9.92% (SLDB) while the 26 downside ranged from -0.11% (IONS) to -9.22% (FATE);

Upside volume stats: to compare

Thursday: 3 out of the 9 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Wednesday: 13 out of the 24 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Tuesday: 16 out of the 25 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Monday: 9 out of the 14 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

Thursday: 13 out of the 31 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Wednesday: 8 out of the 13 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Tuesday: 6 out of the 12 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Monday: 12 out of the 26 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

1 flat –BSTG with 1 reverse merged (HSGX), 1 dropped (BTX), 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and Spark Therapeutics’ (ONCE) acquisition by Roche could be soon according to rumors from FTC by year’s end.

December’s sessions:

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 31 decliners, 9 advancers, 1 flat, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 25 advancers, 4 flats, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 25 advancers, 4 flats, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 19 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

Do you have an opinion you would like to share with us? We would like to hear from you.

Please e-mail us at hwm@regmedinvestors.com.

Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

RegMed Investors (RMi) or Regmedinvestors.com content is the intellectual property of Henry McCusker. Any copying, republication or redistribution of RMI’s content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Scimitar; who also shall not be liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. For additional information on other Scimitar media services or reposting please email hwm@regmedinvestors.com.

The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should be construed as guidance in RMi reviews.

The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.