December 19, 2019 7:33pm

The oversold were recognized while strength is still to be sold into

Pre-open indications: 4 HITs <VCEL +$0.00, SAGE -$1.54 and RGNX +$0.61> 1 MISS < BOLD +$0.09>

It's a daunting task to understand risk, seeing the unforeseen; on the basis of my own “rules”, I set-up my own “warning analysis” which isn’t machine oriented!  

 

It’s also not hard to be right so often, it’s about refining expectation, defining insight and trusting your “gut” versus the machines or algorithms

 

The Dow closed up +137.68 points (+0.49%), the S&P closed UP +14.23 points (+0.45%) and the NASDAQ closed UP +59.48 points (+0.67%)

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday the IBB closed up +0.59% and the XBI closed up +0.50%
  • Wednesday the IBB closed down -0.43% and the XBI closed down -0.56%
  • Tuesday the IBB closed down -0.62% and the XBI closed down -0.07%
  • Monday the IBB closed up +1.04% while and XBI closed up +1.18%

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

  • Thursday the close was negative with an A/D line of 24/12, 2 flats, 2 reversed merged (HSGX & ONVO), 2 dropped (BTX and CUR) and 3 acquired (ONCE, AST & OSIR);
  • Wednesday the close was negative with an A/D line of 13/23, 3 flats, 2 reversed merged (HSGX & ONVO), 2 dropped (BTX and CUR) and 2 acquired;
  • Tuesday the close was negative with an A/D line of 16/22, 1 flat, 2 reversed merged (HSGX & ONVO), 2 dropped (BTX and CUR) and 2 acquired;
  • Monday the close was positive with an A/D line of 13/25, 1 flat, 2 reversed merged (HSGX & ONVO), 2 dropped (BTX and CUR) and 2 acquired;

 

Henry’omics:

The sector’s oversold from Wednesday heard the calling and rose to repond to the call of the electronic machine trading.

As I had stated in the a.m. post, “slow as it goes. Why sell into a downward slope as the holidays and year-end creep forward.”

Indexes s rose to all-time highs on Thursday as investors looked past the news of President Trump’s impeachment by the House as well as mixed U.S. economic data.

Markets have largely shrugged off impeachment news as the chances of a trial conviction in the Senate are low.

From my “Data Docket” - weekly jobless claims fell to 234,000 from 252,000 the week before. However, economists polled by Reuters expected claims to fall to 225,000. Also, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s business conditions index fell to 0.3 in December from 10.4 in the previous month. Economists expected the index to slip to 8.

 

What’s there more to say … the roller-coaster rides further up and will go down?

 

Decliners:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$2.16 after Wednesday’s +$1.69 and Tuesday’s +$0.67);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.48 after Wednesday’s -$1.58 and Tuesday’s +$3.59);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.85 after Wednesday’s +$1.39, Tuesday’s +$2.39 and Monday’s -$0.31);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.69);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.43 after Wednesday’s -$2.03, Tuesday’s -$1.34, and Monday’s+$2.22);

Incliners:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.51);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.54 after Wednesday’s +$2.62);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.61);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.61);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.47 after Wednesday’s -$1.62);

 

The percentage (%) indicators:

  • Thursday’s range of the 13 upside was +0.09% (ADVM) to +8.33% (VSTM) while the 23 downside ranged from -0.06% (QURE) to -4.72% (RARE); 
  • Wednesday’s range of the 13 upside was +0.07% (BOLD) to +7.54% (CLLS) while the 23 downside ranged from -0.08% (CRSP) to -14.79% (SLDB); 
  • Tuesday’s range of the 16 upside was +0.03% (VCEL) to +15.28% (CLLS) while the 22 downside ranged from -0.14% (BMRN) to -10.91% (RENE.L); 
  • Monday’s range of the 25 upside was +0.57% (MDXG) to +13.66% (BLCM) while the 13 downside ranged from -0.08% (BOLD) to -3.94% (SAGE); 

 

Upside volume stats:  to compare

  • Thursday: 8 out of the 24 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 8 out of the 13 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 7 out of the 16 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Monday: 14 out of the 25 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

  • Thursday: 5 out of the 12 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 15 out of the 23 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 9 out of the 22 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Monday: 9 out of the 13 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

 

2 flat – ADVM & RENE.L

 

December’s sessions:

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 24 advancers, 2 flats, 2 dropped (BTX & CUR) and 3 acquired (ONCE, AST & OSIR) and 2 reversed (HSGX & ONVO);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 13 advancers, 3 flat, 2 dropped (BTX & CUR) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 2 reversed (HSGX & ONVO);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 16 advancers, 1 flat, 2 dropped (BTX & CUR) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 2 reversed (HSGX & ONVO);

Monday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 25 advancers, 1 flat, 2 dropped (BTX & CUR) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 2 reversed (HSGX & ONVO);

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 16 advancers, 1 flat, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 27 advancers, 0 flat, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 13 decliners, 27 advancers, 1 flat, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 22 advancers, 2 flats, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 31 decliners, 9 advancers, 1 flat, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 9 decliners, 29 advancers, 3 flats, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 31 decliners, 9 advancers, 1 flat, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 25 advancers, 4 flats, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 25 advancers, 4 flats, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 19 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.