Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors' (RMi) closing bell: which risks are playing-out that haven't already been there?

January 25, 2020 4:23pm

Pre-open indications: 4 HITs < QURE (+0.27), AGTC (-$0.97), RENE.L (-$2.00) and MESO (+$0.06) again on strength> and 5 MISS <SAGE (-$2.44), BLUE (-$2.46), GBT (-$6.61) and AXGN (-$0.31).

The weekly “numbers” in review spotlights the next week coming

It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sectors) coal mine”! I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths – it’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized!

The Dow closed DOWN -170.36 points (-0.58%), the S&P closed DOWN -30.07 points (-0.90%) and the NASDAQ closed DOWN -87.57 points (-0.93%)

Henry’omics:

Indexes fell on Friday after the second U.S. case of the deadly coronavirus was confirmed, stoking concerns over the sickness’ impact on the global economy.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), considered to be the best fear gauge in the market, briefly broke above 15 for the first time since early January.

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all posted their first weekly loss of 2020. The Dow and S&P 500 both fell at least 1% week to date while the Nasdaq slid 0.8%.

Three (3) negative closes in a week with a Monday market close – sentiment is sick and not from a coronavirus outbreak.

I think we (our universe or cell and gene therapy sector) is still overbought and looking for a bottom to rise from.

End of year Q4 results are about to appear which will cause depreciation as estimates and forecasts are not met – which include revenue (for those that have them) as runways will be measured in regard to R&D and SG&A expenses.

I am raising a red flag on pricing sustainability but, not quite yet waving it.

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Friday the IBB closed down -2.62% and XBI closed down -2.51%
Thursday the IBB closed down -0.87% and XBI closed down -1.30%
Wednesday the IBB closed down -0.17% and XBI closed down -0.22%
Tuesday the IBB closed down -1.17% and XBI closed down -1.56%
Monday markets were closed

The advance/decline line scenario of 35 covered companies:

Friday the close was negative with an A/D line of 7/28, 0 flat of 35 covered,
Thursday the close was negative with an A/D line of 13/21, 1 flat of 35 covered,
Wednesday the close was positive with an A/D line of 18/17, 0 flat of 35 covered,
Tuesday the close was negative with an A/D line of 5/28, 2 flat of 35 covered,
Monday markets were closed,

Decliners:

Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$6.61);
bluebird bio (BLUE -$2.46 after Thursday’s-$4.08, Wednesday’s -$2.02 and Tuesday’s -$2.22);
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$2.44);
ReNeuron (RENE.L -$2.00 after Thursday’s -$3.00, Wednesday’s +$10.50, Tuesday’s +$9.00 and last Friday’s +$9.50);
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.82 after Thursday’s -$3.000;

Incliners:

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.04 after Thursday’s +$2.33 and Wednesday’s -$2.35);
uniQure NV (QURE +$0.27);
MiMedx (MDXG +$0.10);
Vericel (VCEL +$0.09);
Mesoblast (MESO +$0.06 after Thursday’s +$0.58, Wednesday’s +$0.43, Tuesday’s +$0.11 and last Friday’s +$1.14);

The percentage (%) indicators:

Friday’s range of the 7 upside was +0.44% (QURE) to +2.01% (CLBS) while the 28 downside ranged from -0.26% (PSTI) to -12.51% (BLCM);
Thursday’s range of the 13 upside was +0.25% (XON) to +6.76% (ADRO) while the 21 downside ranged from -0.43% (STML) to -15.11% (AGTC);
Wednesday’s range of the 18 upside was +0.37% (EDIT) to +19.52% (AGTC) while the 17 downside ranged from -0.53% (SLDB) to -4.28% (CLBS);
Tuesday’s range of the 5 upside was +0.71% (ADRO) to +5.96% (RENE.L) while the 28 downside ranged from -0.18% (IONS) to -8.94% (AXGN);
Monday markets were closed;

Upside volume stats: to compare

Friday: 3 out of the 7 upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Thursday: 5 out of the 13 upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Wednesday: 5 out of the 18 upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Tuesday: 2 out of the 5 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Monday markets were closed;

Downside volume stats:

Friday: 11 out of the 28 downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Thursday: 5 out of the 21 downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Wednesday: 5 out of the 17 downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Tuesday: 12 out of the 28 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Monday markets were closed;

0 flat

January’s sessions of 35 covered companies:

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 7 advancers and 0 flat;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 21 decliners, 13 advancers and 1 flat;

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 18 advancers and 0 flat;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 5 advancers and 2 flat;

Monday markets were closed

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 20 decliners, 14 advancers and 1 flat;

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 18 advancers and 2 flat3;

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 20 advancers and 1 flat;

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 7 decliners, 28 advancers and 1 flat;

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 22 advancers and 1 flat;

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 23 advancers and 2 flats;

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 22 advancers and 0 flat;

Monday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 22 advancers and 0 flat;

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 19 decliners, 15 advancers and 1 flat;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 18 decliners, 15 advancers and 2 flats;

Wednesday markets were closed;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

Do you have an opinion you would like to share with us? We would like to hear from you.

Please e-mail us at hwm@regmedinvestors.com.

Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

RegMed Investors (RMi) or Regmedinvestors.com content is the intellectual property of Henry McCusker. Any copying, republication or redistribution of RMI’s content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Scimitar; who also shall not be liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. For additional information on other Scimitar media services or reposting please email hwm@regmedinvestors.com.

The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should be construed as guidance in RMi reviews.

The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.