January 27, 2020 5:12pm
Pre-open indications: As I stated, “waiting for new bottoms to be formed” with the downturn
It's a daunting task to understand risk, seeing the unforeseen; on the basis of my own “rules”, I set-up my own “warning analysis” which isn’t machine oriented!
The Dow closed DOWN -453.93 points (-1.57%), the S&P closed DOWN -51.84 points (-1.57%) and the NASDAQ closed DOWN -175.60 points (-1.89%)
Indexes tanked on Monday after more cases of the coronavirus were confirmed over the weekend, ratcheting up worries over the virus’ impact on the world economy.
The bad news is that the worst has yet to come, as the number of new infections is still on the rise,” warned Larry Hu, economist at Macquarie Capital.
The coronavirus is also getting a bum rap as the cause of the stock market’s recent weakness. That decline gathered steam on Monday, when the Dow was at one point down more than 500 points. It’s not that any of us should have sympathy for the virus, of course. But I don’t want to let the real culprit get off scot-free <Mark Hulbert>.
The real culprit is market sentiment … so I would NOT be in any rush to BUY as Q4 earnings are about to be released.
The Dow wiped out the average’s gains for the year. The S&P 500 snapped a 74-session streak without a 1% decline. The Nasdaq had its worst day since August.
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered to be the best fear gauge jumped to around 18.2 from about 14.5.
AGTC topped some expectation jumping +6.22% or +$0.46 to $7.86 after last Friday’s hammering close of $7.40 after Thursday’s $8.37 on news of a P1/2 trial. Six (6) month data due soon that will take it to $10.00 in my belief.
AXGN (+$0.19) and VCEL (+$0.15) were up on Q4 results to be forthcoming while FATE (+$0.17) and CLLS (+$0.09) strung along with the daily ups.
Leading the slide were RENE.L, BLUE, GBT, ALNY and CRSP – the lions were chasing the gazelles that were slowing.
January has registered 8 positive, 7 negative closes and 2 holidays, to date.
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday the IBB closed down -0.79% and XBI closed down -0.64%
- Friday the IBB closed down -2.62% and XBI closed down -2.51%
The advance/decline line scenario of 35 covered companies:
- Monday the close was negative with an A/D line of 7/27, 1 flat of 35 covered,
- Friday the close was negative with an A/D line of 7/28, 0 flat of 35 covered,
- ReNeuron (RENE.L -$9.50 after Friday’s -$2.00 and Thursday’s -$3.00);
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$4.14 after Friday’s -$2.46, Thursday’s-$4.08, Wednesday’s -$2.02 and last Tuesday’s -$2.22);
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$2.98 after Friday’s -$6.61);
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.97 after Friday’s +$2.04, Thursday’s +$2.33 and Wednesday’s -$2.35);
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.16 after Friday’s -$1.8 and Thursday’s -$3.00);
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.86 after Friday’s -$1.49 after Wednesday’s +$1.61 and Tuesday’s +$0.09);
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.19)
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.17 after Friday’s +$0.290;
- Vericel (+$0.15 after Friday’s +$0.09);
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.09);
The percentage (%) indicators:
- Monday’s range of the 7 upside was +0.55% (CLLS) to +6.22% (AGTC) while the 27 downside ranged from -0.56% (IONS) to -13.83% (BLCM);
Upside volume stats: to compare
- Monday: 3 out of the 7 upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Downside volume stats:
- Monday: 8 out of the 27 downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
1 flat - BSTG
January’s sessions of 35 covered companies:
Monday closed NEGATIVE with 27 decliners, 7 advancers and 1 flat;
Friday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 7 advancers and 0 flat;
Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 21 decliners, 13 advancers and 1 flat;
Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 18 advancers and 0 flat;
Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 5 advancers and 2 flat;
Monday markets were closed
Friday closed NEGATIVE with 20 decliners, 14 advancers and 1 flat;
Thursday closed POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 18 advancers and 2 flat3;
Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 20 advancers and 1 flat;
Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 7 decliners, 28 advancers and 1 flat;
Thursday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 22 advancers and 1 flat;
Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 23 advancers and 2 flats;
Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 22 advancers and 0 flat;
Monday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 22 advancers and 0 flat;
Friday closed NEGATIVE with 19 decliners, 15 advancers and 1 flat;
Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 18 decliners, 15 advancers and 2 flats;
Wednesday markets were closed;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.