February 6, 2020 6:09pm
I kept saying, trim the risk from portfolio and today’s Advance/Decline (A/D) line 0f 12/23 proved it
Pre-open indications: 2 HITs <AGTC (-$1.30) ADRO (-$0.22)> and 2 MISS <VSTM (-$0.23) and ALNY (+$0.37)>
Q4 and FY2019 earnings: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
It's a daunting task to understand risk, seeing the unforeseen; on the basis of my own “rules”, I set-up my own “warning analysis” which isn’t machine oriented!
The Dow closed UP +88.92 points (+0.30%), the S&P closed UP +11.90 points (+0.33%) and the NASDAQ closed UP +63.47 points (+0.67%)
Indexes rose to all-time highs on Thursday after China announced it will halve tariffs on a slew of U.S. products. Solid economic data also gave indexes a boost.
he Dow and Nasdaq are both up at least 4% week to date while the S&P 500 has gained 3.8%, on pace for its biggest weekly gain since June. The major indexes all dropped at least 1.8% last week. <CNBC>
From my mornings “Data Docket”, weekly jobless claims fell to a nine-month low last week, reaching 202,000. The data follows better-than-forecast private payrolls numbers from ADP and Moody’s Analytics. The U.S. government is scheduled to release its monthly jobs report Friday morning.
“Venimus nos emit et vendidit nos rursus” – “We have bought and sold again". That's why today's a good day for all who owned cell and gene therapy equities to reassess!
What’s wrong with be right ... yet again?
Q4 earnings: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) …
Net loss of -$221.2 M or -$1.98 per share and a FY2019 net loss of -$886.1 M or -$6.70 per share;
- Net Product Revenues of $55.9 M;
- Year-End Cash and Investments Balance of $1.55 B;
- Net revenues from collaborators were $15.7 M in Q4/2019, an increase from $9 M in the Q4/2018 primarily due to revenues from the Regeneron collaboration.
- Net revenues from collaborators were $53.2 M in FY2019, a decrease from $62.4 M in 2018 primarily due to a decline in reimbursable activities from the Sanofi Genzyme collaboration, offset by revenues from the Regeneron collaboration.
Full year 2020 financial guidance consists of the following:
- ONPATTRO net product revenues of $285 million - $315 million
- Net revenues from collaborators of $100 million - $150 million
- GAAP R&D and SG&A expenses of $1,180 million - $1,300 million
- Non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expenses of $1,025 million - $1,125 million*
- ALNY expects that its current cash, cash equivalents, and marketable debt and equity securities will support company operations for multiple years based on its current operating plans.
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Thursday the IBB closed up +0.91% and XBI closed up +0.10%
- Wednesday the IBB closed up +3.01% and XBI closed up +2.33%
- Tuesday the IBB closed up +2.36% and XBI closed up +2.85%
- Monday the IBB closed up+1.77% and XBI closed up +2.24%
The advance/decline line scenario of 35 covered companies:
- Thursday the close was negative with an A/D line of 12/23, 0 flats of 35 covered,
- Wednesday the close was positive with an A/D line of 27/5, 3 flats of 35 covered,
- Tuesday the close was positive with an A/D line of 30/5, 0 flat of 35 covered,
- Monday the close was positive with an A/D line of 24/8, 3 flats of 35 covered,
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.90 after Wednesday’s +$2.22);
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$1.30);
- uniQure NV (QURE -$1.01) after Wednesday’s +$2.30);
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.60 after Wednesday’s +$1.62 and Tuesday’s -$0.12);
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.59);
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$9.08 on reverse split after Wednesday’s -$0.47);
- ReNeuron (RENE.L +$9.00 after Wednesday’s +$1.50, Tuesday’s +$5.00 and Monday’s -$7.50);
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.30 after Wednesday’s -$0.01);
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.96);
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.65);
The percentage (%) indicators:
- Thursday’s range of the 12 upside was +0.30% (ALNY) to +756.86% (BLCM – on reverse) while the 23 downside ranged from -0.29% (VCEL) to -18.54% (AGTC);
- Wednesday’s range of the 27 upside was +0.56% (BLFS) to +22.77% (ADRO) while the 5 downside ranged from -0.02% (IONS) to -17.81% (BLCM);
- Tuesday’s range of the 30 upside was +0.51% (PSTI) to +20.43% (ADRO) while the 5 downside ranged from -0.18% (SAGE) to -6.78% (CLBS);
- Monday’s range of the 24 upside was +0.21% (IONS) to +11.48% (BLCM) while the 8 downside ranged from -0.13% (ALNY) to -5.17% (RENE.L);
Upside volume stats: to compare
- Thursday: 4 out of the 12 upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Wednesday: 4 out of the 27 upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Tuesday: 7 out of the 30 upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday: 4 out of the 24 upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Downside volume stats:
- Thursday: 4 out of the 23 downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Wednesday: 1 out of the 5 downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Tuesday: 1 out of the 5 downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday: 1 out of the 8 downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Thursday closed negative with 23 decliners, 12 advancers and 0 flat
Wednesday closed positive with 5 decliners, 27 advancers and 3 flats
Tuesday closed positive with 5 decliners, 30 advancers and 0 flats
Monday (2/3) closed positive with 8 decliners, 24 advancers and 3 flats
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.