February 12, 2020 6:49pm
Some say money’s being left on table yet, when the decline takes hold – cash in portfolio will dictate the struggle between trust and conviction
Q4 and FY19 results: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.75 with an aftermarket indication of +$3.14 or +5.44%) achieved net income of $30.5 M as compared to Q418 net loss of $47.6 M. FY19 net income was $66.9 M compared to a loss of $165 M for FY18. Collaboration revenue was $77 M while its cash position was $943.8 M.
Pre-open indications: 4 HITs <Sold into strength -Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.70 and down -$0.06 in aftermarket), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.53), Editas Medicine (-$0.13) and ReNeuron (RENE.L -$3.50)> and 1 MISS <CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.75 based on aftermarket indication)>
Trust is something you can rely on, beyond certainty. Conviction doesn't demand that others play by the rules with some principle of reliability.
The Dow closed UP +275.08 points (+0.94%), the S&P closed UP +21.70 points (+0.65%) and the NASDAQ closed UP +87.02 points (+0.90%)
Indexes rose to all-time highs on Wednesday as investors ignored concerns over how the coronavirus would impact the global economy whose impact remains unknown.
Editas Medicine (EDIT closed down -$0.13 after yesterday’s $-$0.92) and popped +$1.25 after a very positive Q4 and FY19 showing versus Q4 and FY18’s numbers.
Bouncing back – today were bluebird bio (BLUE +11.68%), uniQure NV (QURE +2.63%) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +3.44%).
Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.70) rose after releasing interim data from cohorts 1 and 2 in their OPTIC P1 trial of ADVM-022 Intravitreal gene therapy for Wet AMD followed by a $100 M offering – I’d be selling as the aftermarket indication is a down -$0.16 or -0.40% so far …
The opposite effect applied to Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.21 to $4.93) who released two (2) data sets of trial results followed by a $32.5 M offering (priced at $5.00) which tanked and continues to multiply its decline in share pricing.
Too much, too soon – still NO Q4 and FY19 “numbers” to validate, verify and substantiate the “forward motion” of pricing – watch electronic trading and those algorithms pursue emotionless profit taking.
Timely insights have line extensions to a volatile pricing universe which at times separates actionable intelligence into a short-term investment thesis to tackle the “unknown unknowns”
I’m NOT being imaginative in considering my explanations contradictory data; warning analysis is able to identify one’s own biases and expectation of what the data might/should/could show!
Repeating a favorite quote, the philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche once observed that "any explanation is better than none." I disagree. Sometimes, in the investment world, no explanation is really necessary — or relevant.
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators
- Wednesday the IBB closed up +0.27% and XBI closed up +1.25%
- Tuesday the IBB closed down -0.06% and XBI closed down -0.11%
- Monday the IBB closed up +1.20% and XBI closed up +1.55%
The advance/decline line scenario of 35 covered companies:
· Wednesday the close was positive with an A/D line of 26/8, 1 flat of 35 covered;
· Tuesday the close was positive with an A/D line of 22/12, 1 flat of 35 covered;
· Monday the close was positive with an A/D line of 26/6, 3 flats of 35 covered;
· ReNeuron (RENE.L -$3.50 after Tuesday’s +$7.00, Monday’s -$6.00, Friday -$3.00, Thursday’s +$9.00 and last Wednesday’s +$1.50);
· Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.76);
· Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.210;
· Biostage (BSTG -$0.150;
· AxoGen (AXGN -$0.13);
· Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.45 after Tuesday’s -$1.96, Monday’s +$6.02 and Friday’s +$3.52);
· Regenxbio (RGNX +$2.31 after Tuesday’s +$0.71);
· uniQure NV (QURE +$1.63 after Tuesday’s -$0.78, Monday’s +$2.42, Friday’s -$2.06, Thursday’s -$1.01 and last Wednesday’s +$2.30);
· Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.53 after Tuesday’s +$0.91 and Monday’s +$1.98);
· bluebird bio (BLUE +$1.51 after Tuesday’s -$0.60, Monday’s +$2.01, Friday’s -$1.34, Thursday’s -$1.90 and last Wednesday’s +$2.22);
The percentage (%) indicators:
- Wednesday’s range of the 26-upside was +0.33% (IONS) to +5.34% (ADRO) while the 8-downside ranged from -0.48% (EDIT) to -5.77% (BSTG);
- Tuesday’s range of the 22-upside was +0.15% (STML) to +19.13% (ADVM) while the 12-downside ranged from -0.66% (BLUE) to -10.48% (BLCM after a reverse split);
- Monday’s range of the 26-upside was +0.25% (BCLI) to +17.68% (ADVM) while the 6-downside ranged from -0.74% (ATHX) to -4.74% (PSTI);
Upside volume stats: to compare
· Wednesday: 5 out of the 26-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
· Tuesday: 6 out of the 22-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
· Monday: 6 out of the 26-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Downside volume stats:
· Wednesday: 0 out of the 8-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
· Tuesday: 1 out of the 12-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
· Monday: 1 out of the 6-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
1 flat - MDXG
Wednesday closed positive with 8 decliners, 26 advancers and 1 flat
Tuesday closed positive with 12 decliners, 22 advancers and 1 flat
Monday closed positive with 6 decliners, 26 advancers and 3 flats
Friday closed negative with 26 decliners, 9 advancers and 0 flat
Thursday closed negative with 23 decliners, 12 advancers and 0 flat
Wednesday closed positive with 5 decliners, 27 advancers and 3 flats
Tuesday closed positive with 5 decliners, 30 advancers and 0 flats
Monday (2/3) closed positive with 8 decliners, 24 advancers and 3 flats
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.