March 23, 2020 4:56pm
Declines are not as deep before any possibility of inclines get started as a patient investor I’d be “nibling” bottoms
Pre-open indications: 3 HITs < (PSTI -$0.02), (AXGN +$0.33), (CRSP +$0.58)> and 3 MISS < (ATHX +$0.17), (BLFS -$0.38), (IONS -$1.98) >
There is always a toll for being early and greedily more advantageous
Market talk, ideas and opinions: anyone puzzled by the most recent sector moves has reason for feeling so; volatility sketches a contradictory picture of the short-term
The Dow closed DOWN -582.05 points (-3.04%), the S&P closed DOWN -67.52 points (-2.93%) while the NASDAQ closed DOWN -18.84 points (-0.27%)
Indexes declined -3% while the NASDAQ fell -0.03% on Monday as U.S. lawmakers failed to push through massive fiscal stimulus to curtail the economic blow from the coronavirus.
- For a second time in less than 24 hours, a bill that would authorize giant fiscal spending to stimulate the economy failed to clear a key procedural hurdle. The vote failed even after Senate Minority Leader Schumer, D-NY, said he expects the Senate to reach a deal on a massive fiscal stimulus package. <CNBC>
- The failed votes in the U.S. Senate were enough to pressure more of a decline to markets even after the Fed announced a series of aggressive monetary measures to sustain the economy.
Also, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) traded down on Monday -4.45 points or -6.74% as compared to Friday -5.96 points or -8.28%.
The sector’s Advance/Decline (A/D) line opened at 15/20, met the mid-day at 15/20 and closed negative at x/x.
The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases has surged to at least 41,500 while the death count has broken at least 499. <John Hopkins University>
Stocks suffered their biggest one-week decline since the financial crisis in 2008, with the S&P 500 dropping more than 13%. Those losses, coupled with Monday’s decline, put the broader market average more than 34% below its record set on Feb. 19.
The remainder of the month’s trading sessions will be critical for the RegMed sector to establish whether market reaction to pandemic events is how short-lived as hopefully there will be a fundamental correction.
Shares are so disconnected from fundamentals; it’s now how indexes are “sourcing” liquidity which are also testing exchanges.
Instead of harping on not buying or selling the cell and gene therapy “names” at this time; I suggested dropping the "shoulda, coulda, wouldas" and think about where your portfolio needs to be fortified before the inclines really take hold or recover.
Poor stock performance and investor sentiment has engendered a “glass half and almost empty” view toward fundamentals;
Remember, in any race, there is always a “rabbit” that sets the pace but, I would “bet” on the turtle to cross the road.
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB closed down -0.55% and XBI also closed down -0.80%
- Friday, the IBB closed down -3.02% and XBI also closed down -1.45%
The advance/decline line scenario of 35 covered companies:
- Monday, the close was negative with an A/D line of 15/20, 0 flat of 35 covered;
- Friday’s close was negative with an A/D line of 11/23, 1 flat of 35 covered;
Monday’s (top 5) incliners:
- Homology Medicine (FIXX +$1.46);
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.76 after Friday’s-$0.87, Thursday’s +$3.30 and Wednesday’s -$2.56),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +0.58);
- Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.50 after Friday’s -$0.92, Thursday’s +$1.71 and Wednesday’s +$1.51);
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.38 after Friday’s +$1.89, Thursday’s +$4.31 and Wednesday’s -$5.34);
Monday’s (bottom 5) decliners:
- ReNeuron (RENE.L -$7.00);
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.79 after Friday’s -$2.12, Thursday’s +$2.23, Wednesday’s +$0.74 and last Tuesday’s +$4.70);
- uniQure NV (QURE -$2.10 after Friday’s -$0.69);
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.98 after Friday’s -$2.49 and Thursday’s +$2.61);
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.16 after Friday’s+$2.17, Thursday’s +$4.46 and Wednesday’s -$1.58);
The percentage (%) indicators:
- Monday’s the range of the 15-upside was +0.43% (BCLI) to +10.64% (FIXX) while the 20-downside ranged from -0.16% (GBT) to -22.71% (PGEN);
- Friday’s range of the 11-upside was +0.54% (VSTM) to 55.03% (BSTG) the 23-downside ranged from -0.21% (FIXX) to -22.97% (BLFS);
Upside volume stats: key numbers
- Monday: 3 out of the 15-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday: 7 out of the 11-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Downside volume stats:
- Monday: 10 out of the 20-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday: 20 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Monday closed negative with 20 decliners, 15 advancer and 0 flat
Friday closed negative with 23 decliners, 11 advancer and 1 flat
Thursday closed positive with 5 decliners, 30 advancer and 0 flat
Wednesday closed negative with 25 decliners, 10 advancer and 0 flat
Tuesday closed positive with 9 decliners, 26 advancer and 0 flat
Monday closed negative with 34 decliners, 1 advancer and 0 flat
Friday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancers and 0 flat
Thursday closed negative with 33 decliners, 2 advancers and 0 flat
Wednesday closed negative with 32 decliners, 2 advancers and 1 flat
Tuesday closed positive with 10 decliners, 24 advancers and 1 flat
Monday closed negative with 32 decliners, 3 advancers and 0 flats
Friday closed negative with 29 decliners, 4 advancers and 2 flats
Thursday closed negative with 24 decliners, 11 advancers and 2 flats
Wednesday closed positive with 3 decliners, 30 advancers and 2 flats
Tuesday closed negative with 26 decliners, 7 advancers and 2 flats
Monday closed positive with 11 decliners, 24 advancers and 0 flats
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.