March 25, 2020 5:43pm
I am still amazed at how far the cell/gene therapy sector equities had sold off and the value still left on the table
As “crowded” trading gets supported by the stimulus with some fundamentals; only a treatment will stifle volatility
Market talk, ideas and opinions; volatility sketches a contradictory picture of the short-term
The Dow closed UP +495.64 points (+2.39%), the S&P closed UP +28.33 points (+1.15%) while the NASDAQ closed DOWN -33.56 points (-0.45%)
The Dow and S&P indexes inclined as the NASDAQ dived while investors review the news from TV stations about White House and the Senate negotiators trying to reach an agreement on a $2 trillion stimulus bill.
It won't prevent a deep hit to the economy, but it should facilitate recovery and a lifeline until public health actions by supporting hospitals and states fighting the coronavirus to get this pandemic under control.
Read a news flash from Investor’s Business daily for some ‘rough” particulars, https://www.investors.com/news/economy/coronavirus-stimulus-2-trillion-bailouts-cash-fuel-dow-jones/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo
The Dow was up over 1,100 points, or about 5.5%, in mid-afternoon trading after rebounding from negative territory in the morning. A gain at the close Wednesday would mark the first consecutive upward moves since early February.
- Yesterday Tuesday, the Dow soared more than 2,100 points, +11%, its biggest one-day percentage gain since 1933 and its best point increase ever. The S&P 500 rallied 9.4% for its best day since October 2008.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) tracked up on Wednesday +1.65 or +2.69% at 63.33 after Tuesday’s +0.18 or +0.32% at 61.88 after Monday’s -4.45 points or -6.74% at 61.59 as compared to Friday -5.96 points or -8.28% at 66.04. Last week, the VIX eclipsed its financial crisis high, closing at 82.69.
The sector’s Advance/Decline (A/D) line opened at 15/20, met the mid-day at 27/8 and closed negative at 21/12 and 2 flats of the 35 covered companies.
The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases has surged to at least 55,568 after Tuesday’s 46,500 while the death count has broken higher at 809 from Tuesday’s 590. <John Hopkins University>
A quote to be considered and thought about, “former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said “the U.S. economy will experience a quick rebound after a very sharp recession. “If there’s not too much damage done to the workforce, to the businesses during the shutdown period, however long that may be, then we could see a fairly quick rebound.” Bernanke added the current situation is “much closer to a major snowstorm” than the Great Depression. <CNBC>
The answer to the above question and answer will depend on how markets and investors will “weather” the release of weekly jobless claims, which are expected to surge by an unprecedented amount due to the coronavirus. Economists forecast between 1 million and 4 million claims were filed last week.
I also and firmly believe that the number of COVID-19 cases need to improve before the “our’ universe, the cell and gene therapy sector can find and support a floor or bottom to sustain the oversold share pricings!
I was supported by Tuesday’s preferences which facilitated many of today’s “upsiders”: ALNY, IONS, VCEL; but I did miss: RGNX’s upside swing and was validated by ATHX’s slide.
Today’s new upside continuers: RENE.L, GBT, QURE and RARE while BLUE slid along with ALNY, CRSP, FATE and AXGN.
Volume anxieties were moderat as the upside registered 10 of 21 and the downside 7 of 12. While the percentages of share pricing change fluctuated in the positive of +0.81% to +10% followed by the "downers" of -0.33% to -5.04% - not as deep as the past week (so far).
The ultimate theme: KILL the virus a "Clear and Present danger"!
As we react to this newest abnormal, review the stats (below) which send a message of continued uncertainty as electronic trading “machines” are “ruling” our portfolios
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB closed down -0.55% and XBI also closed up +1.55%
- Tuesday, the IBB closed up +5.25% and XBI also closed up +8.11%
- Monday, the IBB closed down -0.55% and XBI also closed down -0.80%
- Friday, the IBB closed down -3.02% and XBI also closed down -1.45%
The advance/decline line scenario of 35 covered companies:
- Wednesday, the close was positive with an A/D line of 21/12, 2 flats of 35 covered;
- Tuesday, the close was positive with an A/D line of 32/3, 0 flat of 35 covered;
- Monday, the close was negative with an A/D line of 15/20, 0 flat of 35 covered;
- Friday’s close was negative with an A/D line of 11/23, 1 flat of 35 covered;
Wednesday’s (top 10) incliners:
- ReNeuron (RENE.L +$10.00 after Tuesday’s +$24.50 and Monday’s -$7.00);
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$2.73 after Tuesday’s +$4.28);
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.92 after Tuesday’s +$3.23, Monday’s -$1.98, Friday’s -$2.49 and last Thursday’s +$2.61);
- uniQure NV (QURE +$1.27 after Tuesday’s +$2.52, Monday’s -$2.10 and Friday’s -$0.69);
- Vericel (VCEL +$1.06);
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.97 after Tuesday’s +$3.21);
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.97 after Tuesday’s +$3.36, Monday’s +$0.76, Friday’s-$0.87, Thursday’s +$3.30 and last Wednesday’s -$2.56),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.73);
- Voyager therapeutics (VYGR (+$0.69);
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.65 after Tuesday’s +$3.64 after Monday’s +$0.38, Friday’s +$1.89, Thursday’s +$4.31 and Wednesday’s -$5.34);
Wednesday’s (bottom 10) decliners:
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.50);
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.16);
- CRISPR Therapeutics (-$0.88 after Tuesday’s +$3.21 and Monday’s +$0.58);
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.86 after Tuesday’s +$2.12, Monday’s +$0.50, Friday’s -$0.92, Thursday’s +$1.71 and last Wednesday’s +$1.51);
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.50 after Tuesday’s +$1.62);
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.35);
- Stemline Therapeutics (STML -$0.19);
- Adverum Biotech (ADVM -$0.15);
- Aduro Biotechnologies (ADRO -$0.14);
- Athersys (ATHX -$0.08 after Tuesday’s -$0.05);
The percentage (%) indicators:
- Wednesday’s the range of the 21-upside was +0.81% (SGMO) to +10% (RENE.L) while the 12-downside ranged from -0.33% (BLFS) to -5.04% (ADRO);
- Tuesday’s the range of the 32-upside was +0.43% (BCLI) to +32.45% (RENE.L) while the 3-downside ranged from -2.56% (ATHX) to -6.06% (MDXG);
- Monday’s the range of the 15-upside was +0.43% (BCLI) to +10.64% (FIXX) while the 20-downside ranged from -0.16% (GBT) to -22.71% (PGEN);
- Friday’s range of the 11-upside was +0.54% (VSTM) to 55.03% (BSTG) the 23-downside ranged from -0.21% (FIXX) to -22.97% (BLFS);
Upside volume stats: key numbers
- Wednesday: 10 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Tuesday: 15 out of the 32-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday: 3 out of the 15-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday: 7 out of the 11-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Downside volume stats:
- Wednesday: 7 out of the 12-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Tuesday: 1 out of the 3-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday: 10 out of the 20-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday: 20 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
2 flat – CLBS and MESO
Wednesday closed positive with 12 decliners, 21 advancer and 2 flats
Tuesday closed positive with 3 decliners, 32 advancer and 0 flat
Monday closed negative with 20 decliners, 15 advancer and 0 flat
Friday closed negative with 23 decliners, 11 advancer and 1 flat
Thursday closed positive with 5 decliners, 30 advancer and 0 flat
Wednesday closed negative with 25 decliners, 10 advancer and 0 flat
Tuesday closed positive with 9 decliners, 26 advancer and 0 flat
Monday closed negative with 34 decliners, 1 advancer and 0 flat
Friday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancers and 0 flat
Thursday closed negative with 33 decliners, 2 advancers and 0 flat
Wednesday closed negative with 32 decliners, 2 advancers and 1 flat
Tuesday closed positive with 10 decliners, 24 advancers and 1 flat
Monday closed negative with 32 decliners, 3 advancers and 0 flats
Friday closed negative with 29 decliners, 4 advancers and 2 flats
Thursday closed negative with 24 decliners, 11 advancers and 2 flats
Wednesday closed positive with 3 decliners, 30 advancers and 2 flats
Tuesday closed negative with 26 decliners, 7 advancers and 2 flats
Monday closed positive with 11 decliners, 24 advancers and 0 flats
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.