RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: the stimulus is weighted by 3.28 M plus 1.8 M continuing unemployment claims

March 26, 2020 8:46am

News: uniQure N.V. (QURE) has achieved the targeted dosing of 54 (of a protocolled 50) patients in the HOPE-B pivotal trial of AMT-061, an investigational AAV5-based gene therapy incorporating the patent-protected FIX-Padua variant for the treatment of patients with severe and moderately severe hemophilia B.

Pre-open indications: watch for directional indicators and a few news (BLUE, QURE and PSTI) as volatility tracked up as markets expect earth-shattering numbers

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors

Dow future are DOWN -1.14% (-240 points), S&P futures are DOWN -1.44% (-36 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -1.06% (-79 points)

U.S. stock futures fell due to the national weekly initial jobless claims data, which show a horrendous record-breaking spike;

European stocks decline ahead of upcoming US jobs data as the pan-European Stoxx 600 fell 1.6% in early trade;

Asia Pacific markets were mixed as investors awaited the release of U.S. jobless claims data as the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia inclined 2.3% to close at 5,113.30 as other nations fell and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rose 0.79%.

Data docket: the release of met-down U.S. jobless claims data

Henry’omics:

Markets had hoped to build on recent strength in the Dow and S&P 500 as the two indexes have just posted their first back-to-back gains since February.

The stimulus bill passed the Senate and now heads to the House, which will push to pass it by voice vote Friday morning as most representatives are out of Washington.

Puff the magic dragon, do not apply pre-crisis fundamentals against post-crisis prices to try to determine where value sits!

Wednesday’s gains extended Tuesday’s historic rally, which saw the Dow register its best day since 1933 and post its largest single-day point gain in history. Tuesday was the S&P 500′s best day since 2008. <CNBC>

Buy” and sell or hold choices are “in-the-air” but, which way are market winds blowing – the answer is in the machine “rules” (electronic trading algorithms).

This market has touched the top band of the “mother of support zones” and has now bounced. This is often the case for short-term tradeable bottoms. But volume has gone higher; yet, still not high enough, considering the past “violence” of volatility. This indicates that a retreat has not yet occurred. A capitulation is often necessary for a lasting bottom.

Without capitulation first, rallies tend to fail!

Something that needs to be stated, pondered and considered, Nouriel Roubini, the economist explained that the … downturn so far has been “far worse even than the Great Depression,” noting that the free-fall of output happened in a matter of three weeks rather than years or even months.  Amid hopes of a sharp ‘V-shaped’ recovery from the crisis, Roubini said all the signs being transmitted by the stock, credit and labor markets suggest something far bleaker. “It’s not a 'V.' It’s not a 'U.' It’s not an 'L.' It’s an 'I'. It’s a straight line down,” he said. “So, right now, we are on the verge of something that could be worse than the great financial crisis, there are conditions under which we could get into another Greater Depression”.

Wednesday night’s title: “stimulus inspires markets another 5% gain after Tuesday’s 11% incline. I am still amazed at how far the cell/gene therapy sector equities had sold off and the value still left on the table as “crowded” trading gets supported by the stimulus with some fundamentals; only a treatment will stifle volatility.”

• the NASDAQ closed DOWN -33.56 points (-0.45%);
• the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) tracked up on Wednesday +1.65 or +2.69% at 63.33 after Tuesday’s +0.18 or +0.32% at 61.88 after Monday’s -4.45 points or -6.74% at 61.59;
• the IBB closed down -0.55% and XBI also closed up +1.55%;
• the close was positive with an A/D line of 21/12, 2 flats of 35 covered;
• the range of the 21-upside was +0.81% (SGMO) to +10% (RENE.L) while the 12-downside ranged from -0.33% (BLFS) to -5.04% (ADRO); 
• 10 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• 7 out of the 12-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Q1:

• March registered 10 negative and 8 positive closes
• February registered 9 negative, 9 positive closes, 3 vacation days and 1 holiday.
• January registered 9 negative, 10 positive closes and 2 holidays.

Q4:

• December registered 11 negative and 10 positive closes
• November registered 8 negative, 12 positive and 1 holiday closes;
• October registered 14 negative, 10 positive and 1 neutral closes;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.