April 20, 2020 5:12pm
However, the RSI (the relative strength index) is overbought; meaning my 35 sector companies are vulnerable to being price skimming
Pre-open indications: 2 Hits <sold into strength ALNY +$6.39) and CRSP +$2.04) and 0 MISS
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The Dow closed DOWN -592.05 points (-2.44%), the S&P closed DOWN -51.40 points (-1.79%) while the NASDAQ closed DOWN -89.41 points (-1.03%)
Indexes fell to start the week on Monday as investors weighed a historic decline U.S. crude prices raised concerns about the economic damage based on the latest coronavirus news.
- The negative impact on stocks from oil likely would have been worse were it not for lesser declines in oil contracts expiring during future months
- Today’s oil movement has been characterized as a “complete anomaly” …
- With speculators fudging with fundamentals as futures contracts expire and storage exceeds capacity;
- A historic fall in energy prices raised concerns about how deep the economic slowdown will be in Q2 and Q3.
The market just came-off its first back-to-back weekly gains in more than two months.
Behind the closed doors, the lack of qualifying news and some pundit “quackery” there is a huge disconnect between what the coronavirus pandemic is doing to the global economy and what we’re seeing in the stock market.
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB closed up +1.29% and XBI also closed up +3.72%
- Friday, the IBB closed up +4.67% and XBI also closed up +5.51%;
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was up +5.21 points or +13.79% at 43.41,
- Friday was down -1.96 points or -4.89% at 38.15,
RegMed/Cell and gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …
- Monday opened negative at 15/18 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 29/6 and closed positive at 30/10;
- Friday opened positive at 32/3, stayed positive at the mid-day at 31/4 closing positive at 29/6;
Monday’s (top 10) incliners:
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$6.39 after Friday’s +$10.76, Thursday’s +$6.22, Wednesday’s +$1.06, Tuesday’s +$1.71 and last Monday’s +$2.63);
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$4.53 after Friday’s +$1.91, Thursday’s +$0.55, Wednesday’s -$1.28, Tuesday’s +$4.36 and last Monday’s +$0.73);
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$3.34 after Friday’s +$2.71);
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$2.44 after Friday’s +$2.90, Thursday’s +$1.03, Wednesday’s -$2.45 and last Tuesday’s +$4.07);
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.04 after Friday’s +$1.91, Thursday’s +$1.12 and Wednesday’s +$1.38);
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.55 after Friday’s +$0.79, Thursday’s +$1.31 and Wednesday’s -$2.29);
- uniQure NV (QURE +$1.24 after Friday’s +$1.92, Thursday’s +$1.61, Wednesday’s -$2.61, Tuesday’s +$2.61 and last Monday’s +$1.23);
- Adverum Biotech (ADVM +$1.15);
- Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.82 after Friday’s +$0.75, Thursday’s +$0.72 after Wednesday’s -$0.78);
- Verastem (VSTM +$0.70);
Monday’s (only 10) decliners:
- ReNeuron (RENE.L -$10.50 after Friday’s +$6.50, Thursday’s -$2.50, Wednesday’s -$15.00 and last Tuesday’s -$13.00;
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.94 after Friday’s +$2.50);
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.44);
- Mesoblast (MESO -$0.24 after Friday’s -$0.23 and Thursday’s -$0.38);
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.23);
- Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.22 after Friday’s -$0.80);
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.10);
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.05);
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.04);
- Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS -$0.03);
Today’s stand-outs: a few to mention, not all …
- 9-session repeater –Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY);
- 4-session – CRSPERS Therapeutics (CRSP);
- 3-session repeater – bluebird bio (BLUE), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Global blood Therapeutics (GBT), Regenxbio (RGNX), Ultragenyx (RARE), uniQure NV (QURE);
- Moving up after a 2x crashing post an offering announcement <2/15/2020> - Athersys (ATHX);
- Back on the upside board after 3-hammering sessions post 7- up sessions– Pluristem (PSTI);
- Vericel (VCEL) – stays on the upside board;
- 5-session decliner - Mesoblast (MESO);
- A lot of rotation additions to the downside - RENE.L, BLFS, MDXG, BLCM, AGTC, CLBS, FATE, SLDB, FIXX and ADRO;
- Hop-scotching – Biostage (BSTG) closed up with “bare – 313 shares” volume after Friday closing down post twice (2x) being flat following closing positive 3 times versus 7 negative closes in the last fourteen (14) sessions since April 1st;
- Slipping to the downside after Friday’s positive close following 4 down sessions and 6-sessions of upside – ReNeuron (RENE.L);
Volumes versus 3-month averages: low volume is moving the needle
- Monday’s volume was GAINING MOMENTUM as 16 of the 30-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume and only 3 of the 10-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume.
- Friday’s volume was THIN as 9 out of the 29-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume and HIGH as only 5 out of the 6-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: look closely …
- Monday’s % of the 30-upside were +0.32% to +22.01% (VSTM) while the 10-downside ranged from -1.23% (AGTC) to -7.05% (RENE.L);
- Friday’s % of the 29-upside were +0.61% (BLCM) to +15.15% (VCEL) while the 6-downside ranged from -1.86% (MESO) to -12.63% (BSTG).
Sentiment and its indicators:
A historic decline U.S. crude prices raised concerns about the economic damage being done by coronavirus shutdowns.
- A delay in funding the depleted small business rescue loan program also weighed on sentiment.
Defining pandemic disruption: The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases:
- Monday’s 766,600,
- Friday’s 683,700
Monday’s death rate escalated to 40,931 after Friday’s 34,575 and last Monday’s 22,861 <John Hopkins University>
Upside volume stats:
- Monday: 16 out of the 30-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday: 9 out of the 29-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Downside volume stats:
- Monday: 3 out of the 10-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday: 5 out of the 6-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Monday closed positive with 10 decliners, 30 advancer and 0 flat
Friday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and 0 flat
Thursday closed negative with 20 decliners, 14 advancer and 1 flat
Wednesday closed negative with 29 decliners, 6 advancer and 0 flats
Tuesday closed positive with 4 decliners, 31 advancer and 0 flats
Monday closed negative with 19 decliners, 16 advancer and 0 flats
Friday was a market holiday
Thursday closed positive with 7 decliners, 28 advancer and 0 flat
Wednesday closed positive with 4 decliners, 30 advancer and 1 flat
Tuesday closed negative with 18 decliners, 17 advancer and 0 flats
Monday closed positive with 2 decliners, 33 advancer and 0 flats
Friday closed negative with 23 decliners, 12 advancer and 0 flats
Thursday closed positive with 10 decliners, 23 advancer and 2 flats
Wednesday (4/1) closed negative with 31 decliners, 4 advancer and 0 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: Reiterating, my “GUT” check is to SELL these HIGHS – the algorithms are coming … RUN my followers!
Love today and Friday’s positive closes however, the constancy of volatility is menacing, something that’s never been experienced in years of this market, and something I see as a potentially mortal threat to FY2020.
We ARE going to TEST another low and that is then it will be the time for you to close your eyes and say … I should have listened to RMi having followed Henry’omics as today’s rally began to fizzle just before the close.
"Worry about losing money, not making money."
And to further quote myself, “After the hop-scotch week, who is willing in their right mind to be LONG – the index boulders are still WEAK on “Sentiment Mountain”!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.