April 22, 2020 8:38am
Rebound perceived should be value achieved
Pre-open indications: 4 BUYs and 5 SELLs with indications
News: REGENXBIO (RGNX) provided additional long-term data from the ongoing PI/IIa trial of RGX-314 for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD).
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Dow future are UP +1.02% (+235 points), S&P futures are UP +0.95% (+26 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.97% (+82 points)
U.S. stock futures pointed to gains at the open on Wednesday, following recent weakness in markets aggravated by oil’s massive decline.
European markets traded in positive territory, apparently defying widespread concerns over the coronavirus outbreak and a slump in oil prices as the pan-European Stoxx 600 climbed 1% in early trade;
Asia Pacific markets were mixed as oil prices continued to see weakness Mainland China, Shanghai and Hang Seng and South Korea were higher, Japan fell while Australia was flat with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rising +0.58%.
Henry’omics:
Oil pricing stays the big news…
- The June contract for West Texas Intermediate, which is the more actively traded contract and therefore a better indication of how U.S. markets view the price of oil, settled down 43.4% at $11.57 per barrel. On Monday, crude futures for May fell below zero for the first time in history;
- The world is rapidly running out of space to store crude oil, and producers may finally have to admit defeat and cut output, after prices fell below zero this week with supply overwhelming demand as economies slump in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic;
- There is one answer, and it is the one that no wants to hear: shut-in production (shutting-in is the implementation of a production cap set lower than the available output of a specific site) which is going to happen because the price will fall low enough to make it happen.
Helping sentiment, the U.S. Senate on Tuesday evening approved a nearly $500 billion aid package for small businesses and hospitals hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, setting up a vote in the House of Representatives as President Trump threw his support behind the measure.
The BOTTOM LINE: I have been and continue to be suspicious of any rally but, I also recognize that buying back into risky share pricing as quarterly reporting is staring investors in the face.
Volatility is sticking to share pricing like glue and Q1 earnings are not going to be welcomed by every category of investors.
We are facing a high degree of probability of a deep recession – which I actually think we have already entered …
“Watch your corners”, as I have been known to suggest i.e. any indication of movement is a potential trap or opportunity.
Tuesday night’s title: “they came for the upsiders, put a black bag over their heads and dragged them out. Oil pricing, algorithm induced volatility and COVID-19 attacked indexes and stocks but, oil lit the machines’ fuse to jump the wire in today’s raid on share pricing.”
- The NASDAQ closed DOWN -297.50 points (-3.48%);
- The IBB closed down -3.03% and XBI also closed down -3.04%;
- The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) was up +1.58 points or +3.60% at 45.41;
- Tuesday closed negative at 3/32;
- The % of the 3-upside were +0.76% (BLFS) to +5.75% (PSTI) while the 32-downside ranged from -0.38% (GBT) to -14.29% (BSTG);
- 1 out of the 3-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- 11 out of the 32-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Q2:
- April registered 7 negative, 7 positive closes and 1 holiday.
Q1:
- March registered 11 negative, 10 positive closes and 1 neutral close.
- February registered 9 negative, 9 positive closes, 3 vacation days and 1 holiday.
- January registered 9 negative, 10 positive closes and 2 holidays.
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context: Aftermarket indications:
Sell:
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$7.02 and had a negative -$0.85 or -0.625 aftermarket indication;
- Athersys (ATHX) closed down -$0.08 with a negative aftermarket indication of -$0.03 or -1.41% having added 28.8 million shares post offering closure;
- Verastem (VSTM) closed down -$0.07 and had a negative aftermarket indication of -$0.13 or -3.49%);
- Ultragenyx (RARE) closed down -$0.98 and had a negative aftermarket indication of -$0.33 or -0.53%);
BUY:
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.08 and had an aftermarket indication of +0.31 or +2.93%),
- bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$3.73 after Monday’s up +$2.82 and an aftermarket indication of +$1.68 or +3.07%;
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$2.56 and had an aftermarket indication of +$0.66 or +1.30%;
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) closed down -$0.12 and has an aftermarket indication of +$0.08 or +1.01%;
SELL into strength:
- Pluristem (PSTI) closed up +$0.50 and had a +$0.06 or +0.65% aftermarket indication;
News: REGENXBIO (RGNX) provided additional long-term data from the ongoing PI/IIa trial of RGX-314 for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD).
- The clinical profile of RGX-314 appears very promising as a one-time treatment strategy for wet AMD as we continue to learn about the consistent and durable effects of our anti-VEGF gene therapy," added Steve Pakola, M.D., Chief Medical Officer of REGENXBIO. "We are encouraged that all patients in Cohort 5 who were anti-VEGF injection-free at six months remained anti-VEGF injection-free at nine months. We also have further evidence of dose-dependent intraocular protein levels in this Phase I/IIa study. We are on track to have one-year data from our later cohorts in mid-2020 and look forward to initiating a pivotal program for the subretinal delivery of RGX-314 in the second half of 2020. We are also continuing our preparations to initiate a Phase II trial for the in-office suprachoroidal delivery of RGX-314 in wet AMD patients in the first half of this year."
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
