April 27, 2020 5:31pm
This rebound is based on opening businesses but, I am still waiting for the first of a few bottom re-tests and a massive testing initiative followed by a treatment remedy
Pre-open indications: 10 HITs < (ALNY -$2.933), (ATHX -$0.14), (CLBS -$0.12), (MESO -$3.86); sold into strength: (QURE +$1.68), (RENE.L +$15.00) (SAGE +$2.41) (AXGN +0.33), (RGNX +$1.68)> and 0 MISS
News: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.46 or 3.55%) and Verastem (VSTM -$2.02 or -49.03%)
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The Dow closed UP +358.51 points (+1.51%), the S&P closed UP +41.74 points (+1.47%) while the NASDAQ closed UP +95.64 points (+1.11%)
What’s driving today’s market surge: the possibilities of loosening shut-down orders and restriction to allow the potential of re-opening … some businesses.
- States including Alaska, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas are beginning to allow restaurants and other establishments to serve customers.
Indexes rose on Monday as investors waited for the actions of state governors and the Feds regarding the possibility of re-opening the economy.
- The biggest risk to the stock market is a premature reopening of the U.S. businesses which could have calamitous effects of increasing COVID-19 cases and would require unforeseen reversal of prior efforts.
Last week, the Dow saw a -1% weekly decline while the S&P 500 also stroked down -1% and the Nasdaq declined -0.2%.
Monday’s sector’s 9of 35 covered companies) volume was STAGNANT as 10 of 22-upside compared to Friday’s 10 of the 29-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume and THIN as only 5 of 11-downside compared to Friday’s 1 of the 6-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume.
Benefiting (or not) from today’s market inclines are sector “participants”:
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) reached a 52-week high of $69.97 and closed (+$2.74 or +4.14%), ReNeuron (RENE.L +$0.15 or +10.71%), bluebird bio (BLUE +$2.94 or +5.02%) and Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.68 or +4.06%);
- Cellectis SA (CLLS) is up +$1.08 or +8.96%, and Solid Biosciences is also up +$0.28 or +12.44%;
- Missing out was Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) is was up and closed down -$2.73 or -3.40% and Mesoblast (MESO) -$3.86 or -24.98%).
Hammered on news:
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.46) after news of its first patient was dosed in Cohort 4 of the ongoing OPTIC P1 clinical trial for ADVM-022 for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD);
- Verastem (VSTM -$2.02 or -49.03% to $2.210) on news that explored the impact that various KRAS variants may have had on response to identify potential signals to pursue in future prospective studies but, had reversible side effects and promising clinical activity after … more testing (inconclusive?);
- Caladrius Biosciences (-$0.12 or -5.33% to $2.13) closed a $5 million registered direct financing (at-the-market) previously priced at $2.135;
- Mesoblast (MESO) after presented promising data for COVID-19 patients Friday (+139%), but investors took gains off the table (-$3.86 or -24.98%). Of the 12 individuals in the study, 10 survived and nine had been removed from ventilators at a median time of 10 days. That represents a survival rate of 83% and indicates 75% of patients improved enough to come off ventilator support relatively quickly. All patients had received other experimental drugs, and the study was very small. But investors chose to focus on the remarkable outcome, especially when an observational study of 2,600 COVID-19 patients on ventilator support in New York City hospitals found that 88% died.
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB closed up +1.07% and XBI also closed up +1.34%
- Friday, the IBB closed UP +2.42% and XBI also closed up +3.44%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was down -2.84 points or -7.88% at 33.10,
- Friday was down -5.45 points or -13.17% at 35.93,
RegMed/Cell and gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …
- Monday opened positive at 23/9 and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 25/8 and 2 flats and closed positive at 22/11 and 2 flats;
- Friday opened positive at 21/10 and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 25/10 to closed positive at 29/6;
Monday’s (top 10) incliners:
- ReNeuron (RENE.L +$15.00 after Friday’s +$2.50, Thursday’s +$5.00, Wednesday’s +$1.00, Tuesday’s -$7.00 and last Monday’s -$10.50);
- bluebird bio (BLUE +$2.94 after Friday’s +$4.67 after Thursday’s -$1.67);
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.74 after Friday’s +$1.66);
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.41 after Friday’s +$1.87, Thursday’s +$0.67 and Wednesday’s +$1.36);
- uniQure NV (QURE +$2.36 after Friday’s +$5.11 on acquisition rumors after Thursday’s +$0.57 and Wednesday’s -$0.67);
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.68 after Friday’s +$2.88 after Thursday’s +$0.88 and Wednesday’s +$1.80);
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$1.08 after Friday’s -$0.60 and Thursday’s -$0.34);
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.99 after Friday’s +$1.53);
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.43);
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.40);
Monday’s (only 11) decliners:
- Mesoblast (MESO -$3.86 after Friday’s +$9.00);
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.93 after Friday’s +$3.99 after Thursday’s +$1.53, Wednesday’s +$2.26, Tuesday’s -$7.02 and last Monday’s +$6.39);
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$2.73 after Friday’s +$8.51, Thursday’s-$0.56 and Wednesday’s -$0.37);
- Verastem (VSTM -$2.02);
- Pluristem (PSTI -$1.75 after Friday’s +$2.07, Thursday’s +$1.37, Wednesday’s -$0.20, Tuesday’s +$0.50 and last Monday’s +$0.25);
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.47);
- Adverum biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.46);
- Athersys (ATHX -$0.14);
- Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS -$0.12);
- Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.05):
- Aduro Biotech (ADRO -$0.03);
Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: look closely …
- Monday’s % of the 22-upside were +0.40% (IONS) to +12.44% (SLDB) while the 11-downside ranged from -0.38% (FIXX) to -49.03% (VSTM);
- Friday’s % of the 29-upside were +0.52% (AGTC) to +139.53% (MESO) while the 6-downside ranged from -0.88% (SLDB) to -4.74% (CLLS);
Sentiment and a few daily indicators:
A decline in new virus infections and unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus have sparked a massive stock-market rally from the lows reached on March 23.
- Also, the curtain has NOT come down on one of the many Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) Remdesivir trials now underway (while FDA approval is widely assumed).
- Are we forgetting the 26 million people filing for unemployment?
Defining pandemic disruption: The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases: every day I get sadder as I post these numbers …
- Monday’s 972,900,
- Friday’s 870,400
Monday’s death rate escalated to 55,118 after Friday’s 50,031 and last Monday’s 40,931 <John Hopkins University>
Upside volume stats:
- Monday: 10 out of the 22-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday: 10 out of the 29-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Downside volume stats:
- Monday: 5 out of the 11-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday: 1 out of the 6-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Closing flat (2) today: Biostage (BSTG) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
Monday closed positive with 11 decliners, 22 advancer and 2 flats
Friday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and 0 flat
Thursday closed negative with 19 decliners, 16 advancer and 0 flat
Wednesday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and 0 flat
Tuesday closed negative with 32 decliners, 3 advancer and 0 flat
Monday closed positive with 10 decliners, 30 advancer and 0 flat
Friday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and 0 flat
Thursday closed negative with 20 decliners, 14 advancer and 1 flat
Wednesday closed negative with 29 decliners, 6 advancer and 0 flats
Tuesday closed positive with 4 decliners, 31 advancer and 0 flats
Monday closed negative with 19 decliners, 16 advancer and 0 flats
Friday was a market holiday
Thursday closed positive with 7 decliners, 28 advancer and 0 flat
Wednesday closed positive with 4 decliners, 30 advancer and 1 flat
Tuesday closed negative with 18 decliners, 17 advancer and 0 flats
Monday closed positive with 2 decliners, 33 advancer and 0 flats
Friday closed negative with 23 decliners, 12 advancer and 0 flats
Thursday closed positive with 10 decliners, 23 advancer and 2 flats
Wednesday (4/1) closed negative with 31 decliners, 4 advancer and 0 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I think sector news will be sparse while market news will continue to be opinion driven and all over the map although the CBOE Volatility index was down well below 40. The index traces the implied measure of the S&P 500’s volatility over the last 30 days, and is now at 33.19; maybe, a sign that volatility could be slowing down?
Are you ready for the LPS (loss-per-share) earnings of Q1?:
- Vericel (VCEL) – 5/5, AxoGen (AXGN), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) - 5/6, Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Athersys (ATHX) – 5/7,
I am not CHASING any equities, in fact selling the HIGHS are a tribute to the contrarian spirit – quarterly earning’s response SCARES me!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.