April 28, 2020 8:09am
Being too optimistic about the re-opening of businesses/economy could backfire and continue the dark cloud over the market and sector. Testing must become more available, better diagnosis and reliable to detect a positive case (sensitivity) and their ability to determine a negative case supported by methods of contact tracing
Pre-open indications: 6 BUYs and 6 SELLs
What I provide is an “intelligence daily” to ensure that shareholders are kept apprised based on a surveillance of “our” universe, the RegMed/cell and gene therapy sector and its surrounding market. Check the BOTTOM LINE <read more>
Dow future are UP +1.43% (+344 points), S&P futures are UP +1.28% (+37 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +1.17% (+103 points)
U.S. stock futures were higher as oil prices continued to fall after plunging in the previous session as Pfizer (PFE) and Merck (MRK) announce earnings;
European markets were higher as investors reacted to falling oil prices and a host of corporate earnings with the pan-European Stoxx 600 edging 0.6% higher;
Asia Pacific markets were little changed as oil prices continued to slip on fears that global storage capacity will soon be full as a result of weak demand. Mainland China and Australia both fell as Hong Kong numbers rose, Japan closed lower and South Korea traded higher as the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index traded +0.39% higher.
Data docket: Consumer confidence will be released at 10 am E.T. on Tuesday. Economist are expecting a read of 92 in April, down from March’s read of 120.
Today’s upside play reflects a tentative restart in the economy as more and more states show a willingness to allow some economic activities to come back online.
Stocks shrugged off a 25% drop in oil prices on Monday, extending recent losses that have seen eight negative weeks in nine, on ongoing fears that worldwide storage will soon be full.
April continues as a rollercoaster theme month. My version of the morning’s forecast is aimed at what I anticipate is about to happen and it is almost over!
Same theme, different session: Skim if you can trim, buy if it will fly and sell if compelled!
Monday night’s title: “we are off to a good start for the final week of April as we potentially ease restrictions pleasing markets. This rebound is based on opening businesses but, I am still waiting for the first of a few bottom re-tests and a massive testing initiative followed by a treatment remedy.”
- The NASDAQ closed UP +95.64 points (+1.11%);
- The IBB closed up +1.07% and XBI also closed up +1.34%;
- The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) was down -7.88%;
- Monday closed positive at 22/11 and 2 flats;
- The % of the 22-upside were +0.40% (IONS) to +12.44% (SLDB) while the 11-downside ranged from -0.38% (FIXX) to -49.03% (VSTM);
- 10 out of the 22-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- 5 out of the 11-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- April registered 8 negative, 10 positive closes and 1 holiday.
- March registered 11 negative, 10 positive closes and 1 neutral close.
- February registered 9 negative, 9 positive closes, 3 vacation days and 1 holiday.
- January registered 9 negative, 10 positive closes and 2 holidays.
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:
SELL into strength – potential targets of electronic trading:
- ReNeuron (RENE.L) closed up +$15.00 after 3 positive session closes;
- bluebird bio (BLUE) closed up +$2.94 after 2 positive closes;
- Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed up +$1.08;
- uniQure NA (QURE) closed up +$2.36 after 3 positive closes and acquisition rumors;
- Regenxbio (RGNX) closed up +$1.68 after 4 positive closes;
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$2.41 after 4 positive closes;
- Mesoblast (MESO) closed down -$3.86 with a positive +$0.21 or +1.81% aftermarket indication;
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed up +$0.40 and had a positive +$0.24 or =1.60% aftermarket indication;
- Pluristem (PSTI) closed down -$1.75 and had a positive +$0.40 or +2.25% aftermarket indication;
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) closed down -$2.73 and had a positive +0.70 or +0.22% aftermarket indication;
- Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed up +$0.39 and had a positive +$0.05 or 0.20% aftermarket indication;
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$0.39 and had a positive +$0.80 or +1.45% aftermarket indication;
The BOTTOM LINE: volatility sketches a contradictory picture of the short-term; when did you last trust a rally to be sustainable?
- In the last ten (10) sessions, 6 closed positive and 4 negative closes;
- The CBOE volatility index (VVIX) closed down four (4) times out of six (6) sessions after 1 up, 3 down and 2 up sessions;
- In the past six (6) sessions, the IBB closed up four (4) times and down two (2) while …
- The XBI closed four (4) times and also down two (2). In five (5) closes of 35 covered companies;
- The advance/Decline (A/D) lines clocked Monday closing positive with 22 advances, Friday at 29/6; Thursday at 15/19; Wednesday at 30/5; Tuesday 3/32 and Monday at 30/10;
The irregular pattern of 2 ups, 1 down, 1 up, 1 down following 1 down leads me to reflect upon indication analysis to provide a possible warning to … SOME … share pricings.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.