April 29, 2020 5:48pm
While signaling that by May 15 through June 1 the majority of the economy will possibly reopen
Pre-open indications: 5 HITs < Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.00), ReNeuron (RENE.L -$5.00), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.65), Mesoblast (MESO +$0.91), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.52) >and 3 MISS < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.69), bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.84), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.35),
Q1 earnings results: uniQure NV (QURE +$0.24)
An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector. Check the BOTTOM LINE <read more>
The Dow closed UP +532.31 points (+2.21%), the S&P closed UP + 76.12 points (+2.66%) while the NASDAQ closed UP +305.98 points (+3.57%)
Indexes jumped Wednesday on the back of positive data for a potential coronavirus treatment from Gilead Sciences (GILD), while investors digested a sharp drop in U.S. economic activity.
- GILD also released the results of its own study, which showed improvement in patients taking remdesivir to treat the virus;
- The clinical trial involved 397 patients with severe cases of Covid-19. The severe study is “single-arm,” meaning it did not evaluate the drug against a control group of patients who didn’t receive the drug.
The major averages held onto their gains after the Fed pledged to keep rates lower for as long as needed.
- Wednesday’s gains put the S&P 500 up more than 13% for the month. That would be the index’s biggest one-month gain since 1974. The Dow is up 12.4% for April and is headed for its biggest monthly gain since 1987.
Q1 results for uniQure NV (QURE +$0.24): The Q1 net loss was $28 million or -$0.63 per share as compared to Q1/19’s $27.8 million, or -$0.74 per share ending with a cash position of $342 million and a runway until 2022.
Today’s “Data Docket”, the Fed kept interest rates at near-zero, noting it will maintain its historically aggressive stance for as long as the economy needs it.
Sector volume was also LOW as 3 of the 13-downside as compared to 7 of the 22-downside also reflecting the LOW change percentage (%) of the 22-upside were +0.22% (GBT) to +11.45% (AXGN) while the 13-downside ranged from -0.09% (RARE) to -13.67% (PSTI).<comparisons are reflected below>
Are investors being too dismissive of the challenges of restarting economies?
- America is attempting to reopen economies that have been shuttered across the country and investors don’t seem to be particularly concerned about how that all shakes out in the weeks, months and years to come.
- Testing and the treatment option are the keys to the unlocking businesses in the U.S.;
The market appears to be expecting a V-shaped recovery over the past couple of weeks but if share pricing does not validate that assumption there is a risk that equities will drop further from these levels.
Hammered from today’s market:
- ReNeuron (RENE.L); Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY); Pluristem (PSTI), bluebird bio (BLUE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and more …
Jumping in today’s sector:
- AxoGen (AXGN), Cellectis SA (CLLS), Mesoblast (MESO), Adverum Biotech (ADVM), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Homology Medicine (FIXX) to list a few …
Check the alternating factors and numbers of the week so far ... I smell uncertainty and a lack of stability!
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB closed up +0.79% and XBI also closed up +0.56%
- Tuesday, the IBB closed down -2.13% and XBI also closed down -3.09%
- Monday, the IBB closed up +1.07% and XBI also closed up +1.34%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was down -2.25 points or -6.79% at 31.29,
- Tuesday was up +0.28 points or +0.84% at 33.57,
- Monday was down -2.84 points or -7.88% at 33.10,
RegMed/Cell and gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …
- Wednesday opened positive at 24/11, stayed positive at the mid-day at 28/6 and 1 flat and closed positive at 22/13;
- Tuesday opened negative at 12/23, stayed negative at the mid-day at 7/27 and 1 flat and closed negative at 7/28;
- Monday opened negative at 23/9 and 3 flats, strayed positive at the mid-day at 25/8 and 2 flats and closed positive at 22/11 and 2 flats;
Wednesday’s (top 10) incliners:
- AxoGen (AXGN +$1.04 after Tuesday’s +$0.40);
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$1.01 after Tuesday’s +$0.08, Monday’s +$1.08, Friday’s -$0.60 and last Thursday’s -$0.34);
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.00 after Tuesday’s -$2.23 and Monday’s -$0.47);
- Mesoblast (MESO +$0.91 after Tuesday’s -$1.52, Monday’s -$3.86 and Friday’s +$9.00);
- Adverum Biotech (ADVM +$0.90);
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.65);
- Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.55);
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.52 after Tuesday’s -$1.17 and Monday’s +$0.40);
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.37 after Tuesday’s -$2.40, Monday’s +$1.68, Friday’s +$2.88, Thursday’s +$0.88 and last Wednesday’s +$1.80);
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.34);
Wednesday’s (bottom 10) decliners:
- ReNeuron (RENE.L -$5.00 after Tuesday’s -$5.00, Monday’s +$15.00, Friday’s +$2.50, Thursday’s +$5.00, Wednesday’s +$1.00;
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.69 after Tuesday’s -$5.20, Monday’s -$2.93, Friday’s +$3.99, Thursday’s +$1.53 and last Wednesday’s +$2.26;
- Pluristem (PSTI -$1.48 after Tuesday’s +$0.15, Monday’s -$1.75, Friday’s +$2.07 and last Thursday’s +$1.37;
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.84 after Tuesday’s -$4.17, Monday’s +$2.94, Friday’s +$4.67 and last Thursday’s -$1.67);
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.52 after Tuesday’s -$2.48, Monday’s +$0.99 after last Friday’s +$1.53);
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals IONS -$0.35);
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.27);
- Verastem (VSTM -$0.07);
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.06 after Tuesday’s -$5.27, Monday’s +$2.74 and last Friday’s +$1.66);
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.05);
Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: look closely …
- Wednesday’s % of the 22-upside were +0.22% (GBT) to +11.45% (AXGN) while the 13-downside ranged from -0.09% (RARE) to -13.67% (PSTI);
- Tuesday’s % of the 7-upside were +0.61% (CLLS) to +4.61% (AXGN) while the 28-downside ranged from -0.49% (BCLI) to -13.1% (MESO);
- Monday’s % of the 22-upside were +0.40% (IONS) to +12.44% (SLDB) while the 11-downside ranged from -0.38% (FIXX) to -49.03% (VSTM);
Sentiment and a few daily indicators:
Fed chair Powell said more stimulus is needed to ensure a robust economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis.
Sentiment moved (622 points) with markets on news that Gilead Sciences drug met its goal and technology quarterly earnings were less steep while other’s advanced; while two (2) sector companies (QURE and CRSP announced Q1, so far)
- S&P 500 was up 14% and the Dow +13% for the month, so far;
- The news helped to outweigh the bearish impact of a sharp slump in U.S. economic growth in Q1, gross domestic product shrinking by 4.8% on an annualized basis.
Defining pandemic disruption: The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases: every day I get sadder as I post these numbers …
- Wednesday’s 1 million
- Tuesday’s 988,400
- Monday’s 972,900,
Wednesday’s death rate escalated to 58,968 after Tuesday’s 56,253 following Monday’s 55,118 <John Hopkins University>
Upside volume stats:
- Wednesday: 7 out of the 22-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Tuesday: 0 out of the 7-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday: 10 out of the 22-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Downside volume stats:
- Wednesday: 3 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Tuesday: 6 out of the 28-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday: 5 out of the 11-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Closing flat: 0
Wednesday closed positive with 13 decliners, 22 advancer and 0 flat
Tuesday closed negative with 28 decliners, 7 advancer and 0 flat
Friday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and 0 flat
Thursday closed negative with 19 decliners, 16 advancer and 0 flat
Wednesday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and 0 flat
Tuesday closed negative with 32 decliners, 3 advancer and 0 flat
Monday closed positive with 10 decliners, 30 advancer and 0 flat
Friday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and 0 flat
Thursday closed negative with 20 decliners, 14 advancer and 1 flat
Wednesday closed negative with 29 decliners, 6 advancer and 0 flats
Tuesday closed positive with 4 decliners, 31 advancer and 0 flats
Monday closed negative with 19 decliners, 16 advancer and 0 flats
Friday was a market holiday
Thursday closed positive with 7 decliners, 28 advancer and 0 flat
Wednesday closed positive with 4 decliners, 30 advancer and 1 flat
Tuesday closed negative with 18 decliners, 17 advancer and 0 flats
Monday closed positive with 2 decliners, 33 advancer and 0 flats
Friday closed negative with 23 decliners, 12 advancer and 0 flats
Thursday closed positive with 10 decliners, 23 advancer and 2 flats
Wednesday (4/1) closed negative with 31 decliners, 4 advancer and 0 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: The most recent collapse in financial markets was the largest in history, even though its duration was only average. Today’s rally has matched the downswing: the 30.4% surge from the low on March 23 to the close on April 17 is the biggest on record. <MarketWatch>
While we’re not out of the woods in terms of retesting earlier lows, some analysts agree that the rally of the past few weeks “increases the chances that any retest would be less severe.”
I still scratch my head about the sector’s breadth that’s measured by the number of advancing and declining stocks, and/or their volume, to calculate their participation in a stock index's price movements.
That’s why, I break out many of the listed factors above … to define the days, weeks, month and quarters “numbers”!
A re-test is coming, watch for patterns and volumes of persistent selling, as we have experienced alternating sessions in a row; a surge in seeing volume could cause a collapse in sentiment.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.