April 30, 2020 5:09pm

We already knew that jobless claim numbers and consumer spending would downgrade share pricing? Last day of April emboldens the newest iteration - “Sold by May and gone away” as April ends on a sour note

Pre-open indications: 3 HITs < Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$1.21), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.11), ReNeuron (RENE.L $0.00) and 4 MISS bluebird bio (BLUE -$2.63), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.80), Pluristem (PSTI -$0.18), Mesoblast (MESO +$0.16)

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  Check the BOTTOM LINE <read more>

The Dow closed DOWN -288.14 points (-1.17%), the S&P closed DOWN -27.08 points (-0.92%) while the NASDAQ closed DOWN -25.16 points (-0.28%)

 

Henry’omics:

Thursday, the last day of April derailed Wednesday’s share pricing surge as investors digested another round of dismal economic data.

  • Another 3.84 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, bringing the six-week total to more than 30 million;
  • U.S. consumer spending also dropped 7.5% in March on a year-over-year basis;
  • As gross domestic product (GDP) in the eurozone shrank 3.8% in the period. Two of Europe’s largest powers, France (-5.8%) and Spain (-5.2%) felt the worst pain.

The S&P 500 was up more than 12% for the month and on track for its biggest one-month gain since 1987. The Dow was up 10.5% in April, which would be its best month since 2002.

My question continues … WHAT supports the future of these markets and the sector as it enters “the earnings zone”.

Last month, the S&P 500 plunged 12.5% while the Dow lost over 13%. The gains in April also marked the fifth time in history the S&P 500 experienced 10% monthly moves in opposite directions during back-to-back months.” <CNBC>

May’s sharp gains have been driven by Gilead sciences (GILD) potential coronavirus treatment.

Sector volume was EXTREMELY LOW as 1 of the 27-downside as compared to 3 of the 7-upside as compared to three (3) month averages which also reflects upon the LOW change percentage (%) of the  7-upside were +0.18% (BLFS) to +8.06% (BSTG) while the 27-downside ranged from -0.41% (VCEL) to -9.26% (ADVM) <comparisons are reflected below> 

Hammered from today’s market:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx (RARE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Fate Therapeutics (FATE)

Jumping in today’s sector:

  • uniQure NV (QURE), Mesoblast (MESO), Biostage (BSTG), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and MiMedx (MDXG)

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -1.43% and XBI also closed down -2.53%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +0.79% and XBI also closed up +0.56%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -2.13% and XBI also closed down -3.09%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +1.07% and XBI also closed up +1.34%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up +2.39 points or +7.65% at 33.62,
  • Wednesday was down -2.25 points or -6.79% at 31.29,
  • Tuesday was up +0.28 points or +0.84% at 33.57,
  • Monday was down -2.84 points or -7.88% at 33.10,

 

RegMed/Cell and gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Thursday opened negative at 3/30 and 2 flats, popped at 10 a.m. to 14/20 and 1 flat, slipped further negative at the mid-day at 6/28 and 1 flat and closed negative at 7/27 and 1 flat;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 24/11, stayed positive at the mid-day at 28/6 and 1 flat and closed positive at 22/13;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 12/23, stayed negative at the mid-day at 7/27 and 1 flat and closed negative at 7/28;
  • Monday opened negative at 23/9 and 3 flats, strayed positive at the mid-day at 25/8 and 2 flats and closed positive at 22/11 and 2 flats;

 

Thursday’s (only 7) incliners:

  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.37) after earnings and possible acquisition rumors of Sanofi’s (SNY) interest;
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.25 on 1,425 shares traded);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.16 after Wednesday’s +$0.91, Tuesday’s -$1.52, Monday’s -$3.86 and last Friday’s +$9.00);
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.14);
  • Verastem (VSTM +$0.08);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.02);

Thursday’s (bottom 10) decliners:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.11 after Wednesday’s -$1.69, Tuesday’s -$5.20, Monday’s -$2.93, Friday’s +$3.99 and last Thursday’s +$1.53;
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$3.21 after Wednesday’s -$0.06, Tuesday’s -$5.27, Monday’s +$2.74 and last Friday’s +$1.66);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.80 after Wednesday’s -$0.52, Tuesday’s -$2.48, Monday’s +$0.99 after last Friday’s +$1.53);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$2.63 after Wednesday’s -$0.84, Tuesday’s -$4.17, Monday’s +$2.94, Friday’s +$4.67 and last Thursday’s -$1.67);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$2.22);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.64 after Wednesday’s +$1.00, Tuesday’s -$2.23 and Monday’s -$0.47);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.54 after Wednesday’s +$0.65);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals IONS -$1.32 after Wednesday’s -$0.35);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.25 after Wednesday’s +$0.37, Tuesday’s -$2.40, Monday’s +$1.68, Friday’s +$2.88 and last Thursday’s +$0.88);
  • Adverum Biotech (ADVM -$1.21 after Wednesday’s +$0.90);

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: look closely …

  • Thursday’s % of the 7-upside were +0.18% (BLFS) to +8.06% (BSTG) while the 27-downside ranged from -0.41% (VCEL) to -9.26% (ADVM); 
  • Wednesday’s % of the 22-upside were +0.22% (GBT) to +11.45% (AXGN) while the 13-downside ranged from -0.09% (RARE) to -13.67% (PSTI); 
  • Tuesday’s % of the 7-upside were +0.61% (CLLS) to +4.61% (AXGN) while the 28-downside ranged from -0.49% (BCLI) to -13.1% (MESO); 
  • Monday’s % of the 22-upside were +0.40% (IONS) to +12.44% (SLDB) while the 11-downside ranged from -0.38% (FIXX) to -49.03% (VSTM); 

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

  • Unemployment’s surge;
  • Stocks were also under pressure after the European Central Bank refrained from increasing its emergency asset purchase program.

The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases: every day I get sadder as I post these numbers …

  • Thursday’s 1 million
  • Wednesday’s 1 million
  • Tuesday’s 988,400
  • Monday’s 972,900,

Thursday’s death rate escalated to 60,999 from Wednesday’s 58,968, Tuesday’s 56,253 and Monday’s 55,118 <John Hopkins University>

 

Upside volume stats: 

  • Thursday: 3 out of the 7-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 7 out of the 22-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 0 out of the 7-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 10 out of the 22-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

  • Thursday: 1 out of the 27-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 3 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 6 out of the 28-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 5 out of the 11-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Closing flat:  <RENE.L>

 

April - a roller coaster month ends

Thursday (4/30) closed negative with 27 decliners, 7 advancer and 1 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 13 decliners, 22 advancer and 0 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 28 decliners, 7 advancer and 0 flat

Monday (4/27) closed positive with 11 decliners, 22 advancers and 2 flats

Friday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and 0 flat

Thursday closed negative with 19 decliners, 16 advancer and 0 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and 0 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 32 decliners, 3 advancer and 0 flat

Monday (4/20) closed positive with 10 decliners, 30 advancer and 0 flat

Friday closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and 0 flat

Thursday closed negative with 20 decliners, 14 advancer and 1 flat

Wednesday closed negative with 29 decliners, 6 advancer and 0 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 4 decliners, 31 advancer and 0 flats 

Monday (4/13) closed negative with 19 decliners, 16 advancer and 0 flats

Friday was a market holiday

Thursday closed positive with 7 decliners, 28 advancer and 0 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 4 decliners, 30 advancer and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 18 decliners, 17 advancer and 0 flats

Monday (4/6) closed positive with 2 decliners, 33 advancer and 0 flats

Friday closed negative with 23 decliners, 12 advancer and 0 flats

Thursday closed positive with 10 decliners, 23 advancer and 2 flats

Wednesday (4/1) closed negative with 31 decliners, 4 advancer and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: the title reflects an update in the adage of “Sell in May and go away”  to my interpretation of “Sold by May and gone away) which corresponds to the six-months on, six-months off seasonal pattern that sees the market, on average, underperforms from May through the end of October.

Also, the alliteration, the occurrence of the same letter at the beginning of adjacent words strikes me as an expression of my mood “hammering home” a snake-like quality, implying … DANGER.

Even in a session like today, I at least called 3 hits and 4 miss – do I miss fundaments and despise electronic trading – the algorithms are - constantly one of the causes of share pricing … depth in “our” universe of RegMed/cell and gene therapy companies.

And then when the sector is totally oversold, I might have “waxed poetically” that the algos moved the sector after causing the declines!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.