May 5, 2020 8:14am
I’m a skeptic and uneasy as there is an entire slew of unknowns; as I dust-off my mantra, skim if you can trim, buy if it will fly and sell if compelled!
Pre-open indications: 0 BUYs and 8 SELLs
News: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$1.73) new interim clinical data from patients in Cohort 3 continues to show robust efficacy and long-term durability, well tolerated with a favorable safety profile beyond 1 year from a single IVT injection with zero rescue injections in Cohort 1. Athersys (ATHX +$0.18) first patients have been enrolled in a pivotal P2/3 study entitled, MultiStem® Administration for COVID-19 Induced Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (MACOVIA).
Quarterly results: Vericel (VCEL)
What I provide is an “intelligence daily” to inform the RegMed/cell and gene therapy sector and its investors utilizing my focus on indication and warning analysis. Check the BOTTOM LINE <read more>
Dow future are UP +1.10% (+259 points), S&P futures are UP +1.13% (+32 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +1.26% (+111 points)
U.S. stock futures are projecting a higher open as the U.S. economy weighs fears of a second wave of coronavirus cases as states reopen businesses and loosen restrictions. Oil prices increased for a fifth-straight day;
European markets are also paying close attention to the lifting of restrictions in many countries in the region with the pan-European Stoxx 600 climbed +1%;
Asia Pacific markets rose as Hong Kong economy contracted -8.9%, its largest decline on record since 1974 while the Reserve Bank of Australia rose by maintained its current policy settings as markets in China, Japan and South Korea were closed on Tuesday for holidays.
We have grown more patient yet anxious as we navigate COVID-19, the Wuhan virus. There are NEW rules in the daily life – the social distancing protocols and we continue to try to figure out the new state ordinances of returning post stay at home orders.
And a times like these, investing is among the last question to be asked yet, the first to be challenged.
Quarterly results: Vericel (VCEL)
- The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.08 (-14.3% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $26.23M (+20.3% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, VCEL has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 88% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 5 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 5 downward.
Monday night’s title: “theme words: worries, doubt, risk, volatility, wait times and their weighting”
- The NASDAQ closed UP +105.77 points (+1.23%);
- The IBB closed up +3.02% and XBI also closed up +5.06%;
- The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) was down -3.28% while 9 out of the 28-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume and 1 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday closed positive at 28/7;
- The % of the 28-upside were +0.07% (VCEL) to +154.84% (STML) on acquisition news while the 7-downside ranged from -0.25% (AGTC) to -7.46% (BSTG);
- May registered 1 negative, 1 positive closes
- April registered 10 negative, 11 positive closes and 1 holiday.
- March registered 11 negative, 10 positive closes and 1 neutral close.
- February registered 9 negative, 9 positive closes, 3 vacation days and 1 holiday.
- January registered 9 negative, 10 positive closes and 2 holidays.
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:
SELL into STRENGTH on NEWS:
- Adverum (ADVM) closed up +$1.73 and has a positive +$0.52 or +3.79% aftermarket indication, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adverum-biotechnologies-reports-positive-interim-211010106.html ;
- Athersys (ATHX) closed up +$0.18 and has a positive +$0.02 or +0.76% pre-market indication, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/athersys-announces-commencement-patient-enrollment-100000830.html ;
- Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed up +$2.74 and has a negative -$0.04 or -$0.16% aftermarket indication;
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed up +$1.86 has a negative -$0.36 or -1.26% aftermarket indication;
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed up +$2.33 and has a negative -$0.96 or -1.675 aftermarket indication;
- Ultragenyx (RARE) closed up +$6.07 and has a positive +$0.43 or +0.66% aftermarket indication;
- Regenxbio (RGNX) closed up +$5.51 and I’d trim pre quarterly results that have yet to be announced;
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$1.54 and has a negative -$0.40 or -0.80% aftermarket indication;
- bluebird bio (BLUE) closed up +$4.93 after Fridays’ down -$3.11, Thursday’s -$2.65, Wednesday’s -$0.84, Tuesday’s -$4.19 and last Monday’s up +$2.94 and has a negative -$0.05 or -0.09% pre-market indication;
- ReNeuron (RENE.L) closed down on Monday, Friday, Thursday, Wednesday and has a US pre-market pricing of -$4.25;
The BOTTOM LINE: Sector equities are preparing for another week of earnings - Vericel (VCEL) will be the fourth (4th) sector announcement.
The accuracy of forecasts and guidance as associated with “runways” really sets me off – selling frenzies are on the horizon.
Have you heard of Albert Einstein’s definition of insanity? The one where he says it’s “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results?”
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.