May 8, 2020 6:09pm
We’re all also suffering from an insufferable monologue of conflicting information as to re-opening procedures in the months ahead
Pre-open indications follow-up: 1 HIT <Pluristem (PSTI +$1.40) and 0 MISS
The week in review …
An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector. Check the BOTTOM LINE <read more>
The Dow closed UP +455.43 points (+1.91%), the S&P closed UP +48.61 points (+1.69%) while the NASDAQ closed UP +141.65 points (+1.58%)
Stocks rose Friday even after the ugliest monthly jobs report ever as investors bet the worst of the coronavirus and its impact on the economy has passed but, has it?
- From the a.m.’s data Docket, “The Labor Department said a record 20.5 million jobs were lost last month, adding the unemployment rate jumped to 14.7% from just 4.4%. Both the spike in job losses and the unemployment-rate surge are post-World War II records. To be sure, neither print was as bad as feared. Economists expected a loss of 21.5 million jobs and an unemployment rate of 16%.”
For the week, the Dow is up nearly 2.5%, the S&P 500 has gained 3.5%, while the Nasdaq has climbed 6%.
- The S&P 500 has bounced more than 30% from its virus low and is just 13.6% away from its record high.
- The Nasdaq is more than 35% off its lows and is now up 1.6% for 2020; yet is down more than 25% year to date.
Volume LOW with 8 out of the 20-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume and 3 out of the 12-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume. The percentage (%) of the 20-upside were +0.65% (CRSP) to +31.9% (BLCM) while the -downside ranged from -0.07% (NTLA) to -4.58% (RGNX).
Hammered in today’s market:
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Regenxbio (RGNX), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), uniQure (QURE) and Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) to name a few of the 12
Jumping in today’s sector:
- ReNeuron (RENE.L), Pluristem (PSTI), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Homology Medicine (FIXX) to name a few of the 20
Q1/2020 results will be disseminated through RegMed Earnings Scorecard - Q1/20 - to date https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11332 - 21 of 35 so far …
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Friday, the IBB closed up +0.98% and XBI also closed up +1.46%
- Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.13% and XBI also closed up +0.15%
- Wednesday, the IBB closed up +0.02% and XBI also closed up +0.50%
- Tuesday, the IBB closed up +1.95% and XBI also closed up +2.14%
- Monday, the IBB closed up +3.02% and XBI also closed up +5.06 %
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Friday was down -3.46 points or -11.01% at 27.98,
- Thursday was down -2.55 points or -7.47% at 31.57,
- Wednesday was up +0.51 points or +1.52% at 34.12,
- Tuesday was down -2.66 points or -7.40% at 33.36,
- Monday was down -1.22 points or -3.28% at 35.97,
RegMed/Cell and gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …
- Friday opened positive at 29/4 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 23/11 and 1 flat and closed positive at 20/12 and 3 flats;
- Thursday opened positive at 23/12, strayed negative at the mid-day at 12/22 and 1 flat and closed negative at 11/22 and 2 flats;
- Wednesday opened positive at 17/14 and 4 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 21/11 and 3 flats and closed positive at 20/13 and 2 flats;
- Tuesday opened positive at 30/5, stayed positive at the mid-day at 32/2 and 1 flat and closed positive at 25/10;
- Monday opened positive at 28/7, stayed positive at the mid-day at 24/11 and closed positive at 28/7;
Friday’s (top 10) incliners:
- ReNeuron (RENE.L ++$20.00 after Thursday’s $25.00;
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$1.78 after Thursday’s +$0.44);
- Pluristem (PSTI +$1.40 after Thursday’s -$0.61 and Wednesday’s -$0.28);
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.14 after Thursday’s -$3.25 and Wednesday’s -$1.22);
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.72 after Thursday’s -$3.14, Wednesday’s +$1.58, Tuesday’s -$0.04 and Monday’s +$6.07);
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.63 after Thursday’s -$1.57);
- Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.61 after Thursday’s -$0.91, Wednesday’s -$0.59, Tuesday’s +$0.66 and Monday’s +$2.74);
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.51 after Thursday’s +$0.58);
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.50 after Thursday’s +$0.13 and Wednesday’s +$0.25);
Friday’s (bottom 10) decliners:
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.32 after Thursday’s -$3.82, Wednesday’s +$4.04, Tuesday’s +$5.27 and last Monday’s +$7.66);
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.87);
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.56 after Thursday’s +$0.88);
- uniQure NV (QURE -$1.39 after Thursday’s -$0.59, Wednesday’s -$0.62 and Tuesday’s +$1.33);
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.19 after Thursday’s -$4.38, Wednesday’s +$2.50, Tuesday’s +$1.62 and Monday’s +$3.41);
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.15 after Thursday’s +$0.20);
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.11 after Thursday’s -$0.75, Wednesday’s +$1.45 and Tuesday’s +$4.60);
- Aduro Biotechnologies (ADRO -$0.08);
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.07 after Thursday’s +$4.50 and Wednesday’s -$1.37);
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.04 after Thursday’s -$0.83, Wednesday’s -$0.47 and Tuesday’s +$0.64);
Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: look closely …
- Friday’s % of the 20-upside were +0.65% (CRSP) to +31.9% (BLCM) while the 12-downside ranged from -0.07% (NTLA) to -4.58% (RGNX);
- Thursday’s % of the 11-upside were +0.58% (STML) to +17.73% (RENE.L) while the 22-downside ranged from -0.27% (SAGE) to -15.87% (AXGN);
- Wednesday’s % of the 20-upside were +0.17% (STML) to +7.66% (ADVM) while the 13-downside ranged from -0.33% (ADRO) to -6.52% (BCLI);
- Tuesday’s % of the 25-upside were +0.14% (IONS) to +38.35% (ADVM) on acquisition news while the 10-downside ranged from -0.06% (RARE) to -3.38% (MDXG);
- Monday’s % of the 28-upside were +0.07% (VCEL) to +154.84% (STML) on acquisition news while the 7-downside ranged from -0.25% (AGTC) to -7.46% (BSTG);
Sentiment and a few daily indicators:
Stocks have rallied aggressively off their March lows as investors bet on an eventual reopening of the economy.
- “You have investors that seem to be able to look through the tsunami of negative economic data and earnings and towards the potential for a gradual reopening of the economy,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. <CNBC>
- Sentiment was also aided after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer spoke to Chinese Vice Premier Liu He late on Thursday about the phase one trade deal signed in January. In a statement, they said both sides “agreed that in spite of the current global health emergency, both countries fully expect to meet their obligations under the agreement in a timely manner.”
- It’s helped that oil has rebounded off its lows. Crude is up more than 20% this week.
The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases: every day I get sadder as I post these numbers …
- Friday 1.2 million
- Thursday 1.2 million
- Wednesday 1.2 million
- Tuesday 1.1 million
- Monday’s 1.1 million,
Friday’s death rate escalated to a total of 75,852 after Thursday’s 74,431, Wednesday’s 71,526, Tuesday’s 70,115 and Monday’s 67,686, <John Hopkins University>
Upside volume stats:
- Friday: 8 out of the 20-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Thursday: 3 out of the 11-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Wednesday: 9 out of the 20-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Tuesday: 6 out of the 25-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday: 9 out of the 28-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Downside volume stats:
- Friday: 3 out of the 12-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Thursday: 9 out of the 22-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Wednesday: 2 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Tuesday: 4 out of the 10-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday: 1 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Closing flat: Biostage (BSTG), MiMedx (MDXG) and Stemline therapeutics (STML) which is being acquired
Friday (5/8) closed positive with 12 decliners, 20 advancer and 3 flats
Thursday closed negative with 22 decliners, 11 advancer and 2 flats
Wednesday closed positive with 13 decliners, 20 advancer and 2 flats
Tuesday closed positive with 10 decliners, 25 advancer and 0 flats
Monday (5/4) closed positive with 7 decliners, 28 advancer and 0 flats
Friday (5/1) closed negative with 25 decliners, 8 advancer and 2 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: Many investors are still scratching their heads at the recent index and market’s move in stocks, given that the COVID-19 (which I’m still calling the Wuhan originated virus) period.
Today’s market and sector equities discounted the employment weakness limited by the spread of the COVID-19 virus as many states reopen businesses.
An interesting quote, “At a particularly fraught moment in 2009, just after the stock market bottomed and a few months before the official end of the 2007-09 recession, George Soros told Reuters that the economy would naturally bounce a bit after it hit bottom, but then would “settle” into a prolonged period of subpar growth — a “lasting slowdown” that would look like an “inverted square-root sign.” <MarketWatch>
He is more than probably right …!
But, countered by another quote, is a slow-for-longer trend writes Ned Davis team’s thesis of Pat Tschosik and Rob Anderson: “The market continues to rise on a flattening of the COVID-19 curve and hopes of new treatment and/or vaccine. Absent a high-efficacy vaccine, expect the recovery to settle into the ‘new normal’ of lifted stay-at-home orders, but a cautious, if not unemployed, consumer.” >MarketWatch>
I do talk to the wall some days and yell at the TV “talking heads” and hope that they will talk back however, keeping-up with other’s fundamentals is usually the response I need!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.