May 18, 2020 5:20pm
Valuations say, thank you for momentum moves; I smell, feel or fear a possible hi-jacking of value
Pre-open indications follow-up: 5 HITs < bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.48), Athersys (ATHX +$0.035), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.53), Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.10), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.04) and 0 MISS; Sell into strength builds a permanent cash position and not a temporary high
An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector. Who is feeding your portfolio - profit from RMi’s analysis! Check the BOTTOM LINE <read more>
The Dow closed UP +911.95 points (+3.85%), the S&P closed UP +90.21 points (+3.15%) while the NASDAQ closed UP +220.27 points (+2.44%)
Indexes rallied on Monday, rebounding from losses last week, as news from a Moderna (MRNA +$13.311 or +19.96% to $80.00) trial encouraged optimism about a potential vaccine. On the basis of the new high, positive news and CEO CBS news station speaking – CNBC “dropped a dime” as MRNA is proposing a 1.2 billion offering (stock is down -$2.03 or -2.54% to $77.97.
- Moderna shares rallied 20% after the company reported “positive” phase one results for a potential coronavirus vaccine. The company said that after two doses all 45 trial participants had developed coronavirus antibodies;
- Positive data is still a hair weak; dosage levels are too variable yet, safe – low dose is mediocre and high doses cause a fever – so far, a P2/3 will provide more answers!
- The BIG issue … it’s working on manipulating antibodies…
- Moderna’s nearly $30 billion valuation is mainly driven by speculation on the company’s prospects in Covid-19, is giving some hedge funds pause …
The Dow and S&P 500 were both on pace for their biggest one-day gains since early April. The Nasdaq also added to a monthly rise, bringing it to 6.9%.
I’m still hanging my hat on the rack as stocks could be in for choppy trading until it’s clear that state efforts to reopen their economies aren’t met with significant spikes in new cases of Covid-19. This weekend most states either partially or completely ended lockdowns.
We NEED more SECTOR news and “our” country’s businesses to open … EASILY!
I’m seeing the sector pricing SLIPPAGE and a couple of power-ups in the upside as the market closed!
RegMed/Cell and gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …
- Monday opened positive at 28/15 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 29/6 and 2 flats and closed positive at 29/6;
- Friday opened positive at 20/8 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 25/9 and 1 flat and closed positive at 24/10 and 1 flat;
Volume was still LOW with 12 out of the 29-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume and 1 out of the 6-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume. The percentage (%) of the 29-upside were +0.52% (CLLS) to +12.02% (CLBS) while the 6-downside ranged from -0.06% (FIXX) to -6.56% (BSTG);
Hammered in today’s market:
- Pluristem (PSTI), Biostage (BSTG), Aduro Biotech (ADRO), Stemline Therapeutics (STML), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Athersys (ATHX) to name a few of the 6 slipping of the 35 covered
Jumping with momentum:
- ReNeuron (RENE.L), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx (RARE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and uniQure (QURE) to name a few of the 29 trading up
Q1/2020 results will be disseminated through RegMed Earnings Scorecard - Q1/20 - to date https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11332 - 31 of 35 so far …
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB closed up +1.16% and XBI also closed up +2.91%
- Friday, the IBB closed up + 2.50% and XBI also closed up +3.58%
- Last Monday, the IBB closed up +4.28% and XBI also closed up +4.77%
Monday’s (top 10) incliners:
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.59 after Friday’s +$3.08, Thursday’s -$3.26, Wednesday’s -$4.53, Tuesday’s +$1.76 and last Monday’s +$6.30);
- ReNeuron (RENE.L +$5.00);
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.89 after Friday’s +$5.21, Thursday’s -$1.49, Wednesday’s -$2.08, Tuesday’s -$1.74 and last Monday’s +$7.45);
- uniQure (QURE +$2.30 after Friday’s +$2.01):
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.95);
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.34);
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.30 after Friday’s +$6.56, Thursday’s +$0.65, Wednesday’s -$2.22, Tuesday’s -$1.07 and last Monday’s +$3.52);
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.15);
- Mesoblast (MESO +$1.14 after Friday’s -$0.46, Thursday’s +$0.17 and Wednesday’s +$0.76);
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$1.13);
Monday’s (only 6) decliners:
- Pluristem (PSTI -$0.57);
- Biostage (BSTG -$0.20 after Friday’s -$0.08);
- Aduro Biotech (ADRO -$0.14);
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.11);
- Stemline Therapeutics (STML -$0.09);
- Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.06);
Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: look closely …
- Monday’s % of the 29-upside were +0.52% (CLLS) to +12.02% (CLBS) while the 6-downside ranged from -0.06% (FIXX) to -6.56% (BSTG);
- Friday’s % of the 24-upside were +0.08% (STML) to +10.97% (CLLS) while the 10-downside ranged from -0.55% (MSXG) to -4.86% (BCLI).
Sentiment and a few daily indicators:
U.S. stocks soared on Monday, erasing May losses, on optimism that the American economy might be percolating again, while the medical community works toward a potential COVID-19 vaccine.
- Risk assets also received a boost after Fed Chairman Powell on Sunday night struck an upbeat chord on the U.S.’s growth prospects, while highlighting that the central bank still retained tools to limit the economic downturn.
The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases: every day I get sadder as I post these numbers …
- Monday 1.4 million,
- Friday 1.4 million,
- Last Monday 1.3 million,
Monday’s death rate escalated to a total of 89,666 after Friday’s 85,906 and last Monday’s 79,894 <John Hopkins University>
Upside volume stats:
- Monday: 12 out of the 29-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday: 8 out of the 24-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Last Monday: 12 out of the 24-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was down -2.58 points or -8.09% at 29.31,
- Friday was down -0.72 points or -2.21% at 31.89,
- Last Monday was down -0.41 points or -1.47% at 27.57,
Downside volume stats:
- Monday: 1 out of the 6-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday: 2 out of the 10-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Last Monday: 2 out of the 9-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Closing flat: 0
Monday (5/18) closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and - flat
Friday closed positive with 10 decliners, 24 advancer and 1 flat
Thursday closed negative with 24 decliners, 8 advancer and 3 flats
Wednesday closed negative with 31 decliners, 3 advancer and 1 flat
Tuesday closed negative with 21 decliners, 11 advancer and 3 flats
Monday (5/11) closed positive with 9 decliners, 24 advancer and 2 flats
Friday closed positive with 12 decliners, 20 advancer and 3 flats
Thursday closed negative with 22 decliners, 11 advancer and 2 flats
Wednesday closed positive with 13 decliners, 20 advancer and 2 flats
Tuesday closed positive with 10 decliners, 25 advancer and 0 flats
Monday (5/4) closed positive with 7 decliners, 28 advancer and 0 flats
Friday (5/1) closed negative with 25 decliners, 8 advancer and 2 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: The Dow and S&P 500 were both on pace for their biggest one-day gains since early April. The Nasdaq also added to a monthly rise, bringing it to 6.9%.
Do NOT CHASE HIGHS, SELL into them – I’m all for building portfolio cash strength to invest post a catalytic Q2 and a better Q3 results!
Where is the upside news driving momentum, I understand the RegMed/cell and gene therapy sector being oversold … however, we’re in a viral pandemic/business closed/ global economic disruption – stay low and keep your sights on the outer perimeters.
“Don't get wrapped around the axle” … steer clear of the moving too quickly and move on to better risk/rewards.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.