May 19, 2020 5:20pm

It’s not hard to be right so often, it’s about refining expectation, defining insight, following the trading flow and trusting your “gut” …

Pre-open indications follow-up: 7 HITs - Maintaining Sell into strength: <bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.76), Athersys (ATHX -$0.085), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.59), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS -$0.03), Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.23), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.98), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.74)> and 1  MISS < Pluristem (PSTI -$0.51)> Selling into strength builds a permanent cash position versus a temporary pricing high

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  Who is feeding your portfolio - profit from RMi’s analysis! Check the BOTTOM LINE <read more>

 

The Dow closed DOWN -390.51 points (-1.59%), the S&P closed DOWN -30.97 points (-1.05%) while the NASDAQ closed DOWN -49.72 points (-0.54%)

 

Henry’omics:

The Dow and S&P 500 fell ended sharply lower with losses gaining downside momentum within the final minutes of trading.

One possible catalyst was after a STAT News report raised concerns about the trial results for a potential coronavirus vaccine from Moderna (MRNA).

  • The Stat News article said that the Moderna (MRNA) report on its experimental vaccine for COVID-19 lacked sufficient data. The report of early success from the Moderna (MRNA) vaccine candidate was one of the catalysts for markets soaring a day ago;
  • MRNA shares finished down -$8.33 or 10.41% to $71.67 in late Tuesday action after a 13% surge on Monday which brought it to a record close but, is up +$0.28 or +0.27% to $71.86 in the aftermarket.

Tuesday’s falling action followed a strong rally following the myth of Icarus in flying too high as called out in this morning’s post.

  • Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren during a CNBC interview cautioned that businesses reopening may be "premature" as Americans continue to contend psychologically with the COVID-19 pandemic. Rosengren suggested that demand from consumers may still be an issue as the economy attempts to restart from coronavirus closures. The Fed official’s comments come after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Tuesday morning were grilled by the Senate Banking Committee about why funding from the $2 trillion economic-relief package approved by Congress legislation remains unspent. <MarketWatch>

A tiny sign of relief: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) hit a 52-week high at $19.44, a gain of +$0.74 or +3.96%.

 

RegMed/Cell and gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Tuesday opened negative at 13/21 and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day at 11/12 and 3 flats and closed negative at 9/23 and 3 flats;
  • Monday opened positive at 28/15 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 29/6 and 2 flats and closed positive at 29/6;
  • Friday opened positive at 20/8 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 25/9 and 1 flat and closed positive at 24/10 and 1 flat;

 

Key metrics:

Volume remains LOW with 4 out of the 9-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume and 2 out of the 23-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume.

The percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.04% (EDIT) to +5.17% (ADVM) while the 23-downside ranged from -0.22% (FIXX) to -6.54% (SAGE); 

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), uniQure NV (QURE), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) to name a few of the 23 slipping of the 35 covered

Jumping with momentum:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE), Intellia therapeutics (NTLA), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Editas Medicine (EDIT) to name a few of the 9 trading up

 

Q1/2020 results will be disseminated through RegMed Earnings Scorecard - Q1/20 - to date https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11332 - 31 of 35 so far …

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -1.92% and XBI also closed down -2.85%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +1.16% and XBI also closed up +2.91%
  • Friday, the IBB closed up + 2.50% and XBI also closed up +3.58%

 

Tuesday’s (only 9) incliners:

  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.93 after Monday’s -$0.11);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.76);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.74);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.59);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.36);
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.10);
  • Verastem (VSTM +$0.03);
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.020;
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.01);

Tuesday’s (bottom 10) decliners:

  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$3.85);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$2.46);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.46 after Monday’s +$5.59, Friday’s +$3.08, Thursday’s -$3.26, Wednesday’s -$4.53 and last Tuesday’s +$1.76);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.52 after Monday’s +$1.95);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.35 after Monday’s +$1.34);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.98 after Monday’s +$1.30, Friday’s +$6.56, Thursday’s +$0.65, Wednesday’s -$2.22 and last Tuesday’s -$1.07);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.83);
  • uniQure (QURE -$0.82 after Monday’s +$2.30 after Friday’s +$2.01):
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.74 after Monday’s +$1.15);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.69 after Monday’s +$1.14, Friday’s -$0.46, Thursday’s +$0.17 and last Wednesday’s +$0.76);

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: look closely …

  • The percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.04% (EDIT) to +5.17% (ADVM) while the 23-downside ranged from -0.22% (FIXX) to -6.54% (SAGE);
  • Monday’s % of the 29-upside were +0.52% (CLLS) to +12.02% (CLBS) while the 6-downside ranged from -0.06% (FIXX) to -6.56% (BSTG); 
  • Friday’s % of the 24-upside were +0.08% (STML) to +10.97% (CLLS) while the 10-downside ranged from -0.55% (MSXG) to -4.86% (BCLI).             

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators: suffering from a hope rally ...

  • The Dow and S&P 500 fell to their session lows after a STAT News report raised concerns about the trial results for a potential coronavirus vaccine from Moderna (MRNA)

The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases: every day I get sadder as I post these numbers …

  • Tuesday 1.5 million,
  • Monday 1.4 million,
  • Friday 1.4 million,

Tuesday’s death rate escalated to a total of 90,396 after Monday’s 89,666 and Friday’s 85,906 <John Hopkins University>

 

Upside volume stats: 

  • Tuesday: 4 out of the 9-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 12 out of the 29-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 8 out of the 24-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was down -0.67 points or -2.25% at 28.70,
  • Monday was down -2.58 points or -8.09% at 29.31,
  • Friday was down -0.72 points or -2.21% at 31.89,

Downside volume stats:

  • Tuesday: 2 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 6-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 2 out of the 10-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Closing flat: BSTG, ADRO and RENE.L

 

May

Tuesday closed negative with 23 decliners, 9 advancer and 3 flats

Monday (5/18) closed positive with 6 decliners, 29 advancer and - flat

Friday closed positive with 10 decliners, 24 advancer and 1 flat

Thursday closed negative with 24 decliners, 8 advancer and 3 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 31 decliners, 3 advancer and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 21 decliners, 11 advancer and 3 flats

Monday (5/11) closed positive with 9 decliners, 24 advancer and 2 flats

Friday closed positive with 12 decliners, 20 advancer and 3 flats

Thursday closed negative with 22 decliners, 11 advancer and 2 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 13 decliners, 20 advancer and 2 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 10 decliners, 25 advancer and 0 flats

Monday (5/4) closed positive with 7 decliners, 28 advancer and 0 flats

Friday (5/1) closed negative with 25 decliners, 8 advancer and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  I wasn’t wrong from last night’s post, “Do NOT CHASE HIGHS, SELL into them – I’m all for building portfolio cash strength to invest post a catalytic Q2 and a better Q3 results!”

WHERE is the bottom, I’d play with equities (buy and sell and a couple of holds) – Q2 results could "smoke” the reporting season deadly!

I continue to reiterate another old saying from past days, “Don't get wrapped around the axle” … steer clear of the moving too quickly ... momentum is fragmented and volatility exceeds volume”. What I’m trying to forecast is as markets move, there are still headwinds lurking!

This signals a rising challenge for companies to find new … investors

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.