June 13, 2020 12:37pm

Pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 1 MISS <who>

The week in review …

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The Dow closed UP +477.37 points (+4.90%), the S&P closed UP +39.21 points (+1.31%) while the NASDAQ closed UP +96.08 points (+1.01%)

 

Pre-open indications: 6 HITs < bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.81), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.19), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.90), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.98), Pluristem Therapeutics (PSTI +$0.15), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.51) > and 1 MISS < Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.01), >

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes inclined on Friday and then deteriorated slowly from its highs, clawing back some of the sharp losses from yesterday’s (Thursday) worst day since March.

Despite those sharp gains, the major averages were all on pace to post their first weekly losses in four (4) weeks. The Dow lost -5.5% and S&P 500 -4.7% in the week to date while the Nasdaq has lost 2.3%.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) i.e. “fear gauge” jumped to trade above 40 (Thursday) for the first time since May 4 and remained elevated Friday, above 43, then dipped to 36.09.

A review of the week: a BINGE (to the table), a drop of the main course and a BOLT (with no tip)!

I also believe that this moderate turmoil (Friday) wasn’t a retail-only play

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Friday opened positive at 32/1 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 21/11 and 3 flats, closing positive at 25/8 and 2 flats;
  • Thursday opened negative, stayed negative at the mid-day at 3/30 and 2 flats, closing negative at 2/31 and 2 flats;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 28/6 and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day at 17/16 and 2 flats, flipping at 2 p.m. to 25/7 and 3 flats, closing negative at 15/17 and 3 flats;
  • Tuesday opened positive at 18/15 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 17/16 and 2 flats, closing negative at 14/19 and 2 flats;
  • Monday opened positive at 17/16 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 23/10 and 2 flats, closing positive at 22/9 and 4 flats;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume continued LOW with x out of the 25-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume and 2 out of the 8-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 25-upside were +0.18% (GBT) to +12.20% (PGEN) while the 8-downside ranged from -0.05% (ADVM) to -2.53% (MDXG); 

 

Hammered in Friday’s market:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sangamo therapeutics (SGMO), Mesoblast (MESO), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI), MiMedx (Pink sheets: MDXG)
  • to name a few of the 8 slipping of the 35 covered

Jumping with increasing share pricing:

  • Editas Medicine (EDIT), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Ultragenyx (RARE), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and uniQure NV (QURE) to name the only 25 trading up of 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.53 % and XBI also closed up +1.27 %
  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -5.93% and XBI also closed down -5.53%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +0.32% and XBI also closed up +0.12%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.14% and XBI also closed down -0.17%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +1.33% and XBI also closed up +1.85%

 

Friday’s (top 10 of 25) incliners:

  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.98 after Thursday’s -$2.48, Wednesday’s +$0.68 and Tuesday’s -$0.31);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.86);
  • Sage therapeutics (SAGE +$1.51);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.60 after Thursday’s -$4.85, Wednesday’s -$0.54, Tuesday’s +$1.18 and Monday’s +$0.75);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$1.27);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.14 after Thursday’s -$2.68, Wednesday’s -$0.22 and Tuesday’s -$0.41);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.14);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.81 after Thursday’s -$5.20, Wednesday’s +$1.55, Tuesday’s -$2.37 and Monday’s -$1.84);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.50);
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.45);

Friday’s (only 8) decliners:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.52 after Thursday’s -$3.80, Wednesday’s -$0.08 after Tuesday’s -$0.65 and Monday’s +$2.85)
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.28 after Thursday’s +$0.21);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.28);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.10);
  • MiMedx (Pink sheets: MDXG -$0.09 after Thursday’s +$0.05);
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.08);
  • Biostage (-$0.05);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.01 after Thursday’s +$2.55, Wednesday’s +$0.44 and Tuesday’s +$0.55);

Closing flat: 2 –ReNeuron (RENE.L) and Stemline Therapeutics (STML – being acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: look closely …

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 25-upside were +0.18% (GBT) to +12.20% (PGEN) while the 8-downside ranged from -0.05% (ADVM) to -2.53% (MDXG); 
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 2-upside were +1.42% (MDXG) to +1.90% (SGMO) while the 31-downside ranged from -1.43% (ATHX) to -15.75% (PGEN); 
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 15-upside were +0.15% (IONS) to +25.86% (PGEN +$0.90 to $4.38) while the 17-downside ranged from -0.06% (STML) to -6.35% (ADRO); 
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 14-upside were +0.19% (AGTC) to +15.58% (FATE) while the 19-downside ranged from -0.16% (VYGR) to -8.70% (ADRO); 
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 22-upside were +0.08% (MESO) to +21.05% (ADRO) while the 9-downside ranged from -0.74% (AXGN) to -6.83% (BCLI); 

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

The major averages, whipsawed back having clinched their worst week since March as traders took profits and grew nervous of a resurgence in Covid-19 cases.

The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases: every day I get sadder as I post these numbers …

  • Friday 2.04 million
  • Thursday 2 million
  • Wednesday 1.98 million
  • Tuesday 1.96 million
  • Monday 1.95 million

Friday’s death rate escalated to a total of 114,669 after Thursday’s 112,924, Wednesday’s 112,402, Tuesday’s 111,375 and Monday’s 110,734 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Upside volume stats: 

  • Friday: 8 out of the 25-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 1 out of the 2-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 4 out of the 15-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 4 out of the 14-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 4 out of the 22-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up down -4.70 points or -11.52% at36.09;
  • Thursday was up at +13.32 points or +48.31% at 40.81;
  • Wednesday was flat at 0.00 points or 0.00% at 27.57;
  • Tuesday was up +1.76 points or +6.82% at 27.57;
  • Monday was up +1.29 points or +5.26% at 25.81;

Downside volume stats:

  • Friday: 2 out of the 8-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 10 out of the 31-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 4 out of the 17-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 19-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 4 out of the 9-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

June

Friday closed positive with 25 advancers, 8 decliners and 2 flats

Thursday closed negative with 2 advancers, 31 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 15 advancers, 17 decliners and 3 flats

Tuesday closed negative with 14 advancers, 19 decliners and 2 flats

Monday (6/8) closed positive with 22 advancers, 9 decliners and 4 flats

Friday closed negative with 16 advancers, 19 decliners and 0 flat

Thursday closed negative with 5 advancers, 30 decliners and 0 flat

Wednesday closed negative with 9 advancers, 25 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed positive with 21 advancers, 13 decliners and 1 flat

Monday (6/1) positive with 23 advancers,10 decliners and 2 flats

 

The Bottom line:  The question that resounds was, had markets got ahead of themselves, then way behind their “skis” and again leaning forward; a slippage on psychological impetus or just scared of words of uncertainty and virus counts?

The potential of the RegMed/cell and Gene therapy sector has the same potential as it has had – it’s just more a victim of speculation;

Q2 results are being prepared but, stocks are up the most from the lows are still the risk-on, high beta, value, small-cap stocks.

There’s more pain to come in the short and near-term before the market clears out kind of this excessive speculation and electronic trading carve-out.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.