June 16, 2020 7:23pm

While valuations are in flux, some deflated, others stretched until investors are driven away by poor data, lured elsewhere or algorithmic hit jobs

Pre-open indications: 8 HITs and 0 MISS

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The Dow closed UP +526.82 points (+2.04%), the S&P closed UP +58.15 points (+1.90%) while the NASDAQ closed UP +169.84 points (+1.75%)

 

Pre-open indications: 8 HITs <Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.33), uniQure NV (QURE -$0.17), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.82), Precigen (PGEN -$0.00), Athersys (ATHX -$0.17)  – sold into strength <Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.94), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.63), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.14)> and 0 MISS

 

Henry’omics:

Retail sales numbers made the day …

  • The U.S. government reported a record 17.7% increase in retail sales for May having expected a gain of 7.7%.

Tuesday followed a striking rebound in U.S. equity markets a day earlier. The Dow closed 157.62 points higher on Monday after the blue-chip index fell more than 760 points earlier in the session. The S&P 500 also had a sharp turnaround.

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Tuesday opened positive at 28/5 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 29/5 and 1 flat, closing positive at 23/8 and 4 flats;
  • Monday opened negative at 13/21 and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day at 25/9 and 1 flat, closing positive at 28/5 and 2 flats;
  • Friday opened positive at 32/1 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 21/11 and 3 flats, closing positive at 25/8 and 2 flats;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume continued LOW with 6 out of the 23-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume and 1 out of the 7-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 23-upside were +0.46% (AXGN) to +8.80% (RENE.L) while the 7-downside ranged from -0.20% (VCEL) to -5.31% (ATHX); 

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Pluristem (PSTI), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), uniQure NV (QURE), MiMedx (Pink sheets: MDXG), Vericel VCEL) and Athersys (ATHX) to name the 8 slipping of the 35 covered

Jumping with momentum:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP) to name a few of the 23 trading up of 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB closed +1.83% and XBI also closed up +1.54%
  • Monday, the IBB closed +1.99% and XBI also closed up +2.82%
  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.53 % and XBI also closed up +1.27 %

 

Tuesday’s (top 10 of 23) incliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$11.00 after Monday’s -$5.00)
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$4.27);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.88 after Monday’s +$2.99 and Friday’s -$0.52)
  • CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.82 after Monday’s +$2.56); 
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.94 after Monday’s +$1.95 and Friday’s +$1.98);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.59);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.93 after Monday’s +$1.09 and Friday’s +$1.51);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.83);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.74 after Monday’s +$1.64 and Friday’s +$1.14);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.63 after Monday’s +$2.39 and Friday’s -$0.01);

Tuesday’s (only 8) decliners:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.44 after Monday’s -$0.39 and Friday’s +$0.81);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.33 after Monday’s +$1.16 and Friday’s -$3.14);
  • Pluristem (PSTI -$0.31);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.21 after Monday’s -$1.16 and Friday’s +$1.86);
  • Athersys (ATHX -$0.17);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.17 after Monday’s +$2.12 and Friday’s +$1.27);
  • MiMedx (Pink sheets: MDXG -$0.12);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.03);

Closing flat: 4 – Biostage (BSTG), Precigen (PGEN), Aduro biotech (ADRO) and Stemline Therapeutics (STML – being acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: look closely …

  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 23-upside were +0.46% (AXGN) to +8.80% (RENE.L) while the 8-downside ranged from -0.20% (VCEL) to -5.31% (ATHX); 
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 28-upside were +0.67% (SLDB) to +17.36% (BCLI) while the 5-downside ranged from -0.09% (SGMO) to -3.85% (RENE.L); 
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 25-upside were +0.18% (GBT) to +12.20% (PGEN) while the 8-downside ranged from -0.05% (ADVM) to -2.53% (MDXG); 

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

A record jump in retail sales — coupled with positive trial results from a potential coronavirus treatment and hopes of more stimulus — sent market sentiment soaring.

Trial results announced Tuesday showed dexamethasone — a widely available drug — can help critically ill coronavirus patients. The treatment reportedly reduced Covid-19 deaths in hospitalized patients by up to one third.

the Trump administration is drawing up a $1 trillion infrastructure proposal with a preliminary version being prepared would set aside the majority of the money for traditional infrastructure projects such as roads and bridges, though funds would also be reserved for 5G wireless infrastructure and rural broadband.

The number of confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases: every day I get sadder as I post these numbers …

  • Tuesday 2.11 million
  • Monday 2.09 million
  • Friday 2.04 million

Tuesday’s death rate escalated to a total of 116,341 after Monday’s 115,732 after Friday’s 114,669 and last Monday’s 110,734 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Upside volume stats: 

  • Tuesday: 6 out of the 23-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 7 out of the 28-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 8 out of the 25-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was down -0.73 points or -2.12% at 33.67;
  • Monday was down -1.69 points or -4.68% at 34.40;
  • Friday was up down -4.70 points or -11.52% at36.09;

Downside volume stats:

  • Tuesday: 1 out of the 8-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 5-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 2 out of the 8-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

June

Tuesday closed positive with 23 advancers, 8 decliners and 4 flats

Monday (6/15) closed positive with 28 advancers, 5 decliners and 2 flats

Friday closed positive with 25 advancers, 8 decliners and 2 flats

Thursday closed negative with 2 advancers, 31 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 15 advancers, 17 decliners and 3 flats

Tuesday closed negative with 14 advancers, 19 decliners and 2 flats

Monday (6/8) closed positive with 22 advancers, 9 decliners and 4 flats

Friday closed negative with 16 advancers, 19 decliners and 0 flat

Thursday closed negative with 5 advancers, 30 decliners and 0 flat

Wednesday closed negative with 9 advancers, 25 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed positive with 21 advancers, 13 decliners and 1 flat

Monday (6/1) positive with 23 advancers,10 decliners and 2 flats

 

The Bottom line:  Are we trading into an electronic trading algorithmic trap?

Peaks and streaks somehow end up falling into slowly deepening quicksand.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.