July 6, 2020 7:31pm

There are serious headwinds ahead …

Pre-open indications: 7 HITs and 1 MISS

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The Dow closed UP +369.14 points (+1.430%), the S&P closed UP +43.33 points (+1.38%) while the NASDAQ closed UP +210.11 points (+2.06%)

 

Pre-open indication results: 7 HITs < AxoGen (AXGN -$0.06), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.52), Vericel (VCEL -$0.31), SELL into strength - CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP+$4.41), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.10), Mesoblast (MESO +$1.10) Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.71)> and 2 MISS < ReNeuron (RENE.L +$1.00), Biostage (BSTG +$0.08) >

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes closed sharply higher on Monday, led by momentum from last week’s solid performance that shook-off a continued rise in coronavirus cases.

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Monday opened positive at 21/11 and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 22/12 and 1 flat, closing positive at 19/15 and 1 flats;
  • Friday was a market holiday;
  • Thursday opened positive at 22/11 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 21/11 and 3 flats, closing positive at 18/14 and 3 flats;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 4 of the 19-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume and 3 out of the 15-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 19-upside were +0.13% (FIXX) to +9.14% (MESO) while the 15-downside ranged from -0.02% (IONS) to -8.09% (AGTC); 

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Regenxbio (RGNX), bluebird bio (BLUE), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), UniQure NV (QURE) and Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) to name 5 of the 15 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Mesoblast (MESO), ReNeuron (RENE.L) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) to name 5 of the 19 trading up of 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB closed up +0.65% and XBI also closed up +0.03%
  • Friday was a market holiday;
  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.85% and XBI also closed up +0.37%

 

Monday’s (10 of 19) incliners:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.41 after Thursday’s +$1.20, Wednesday’s +$5.01, Tuesday’s -$1.56 and last Monday’s +$1.01);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.56 after Thursday’s +$1.10);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$1.10 after Thursday’s +$0.46);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$1.00);
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.71 after Thursday’s +$1.39, Wednesday’s +$6.43, Tuesday’s +$4.56 and last Monday’s -$2.92);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.59);
  • MiMedx (OTC Pink sheets: MDXG +$0.41 after Thursday’s -$0.41);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.40 after Thursday’s +$0.59);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.20);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.19);

Monday’s (bottom 10 of 15) decliners:

  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.89 after Thursday’s -$0.65, Wednesday’s +$1.92, Tuesday’s -$0.13 and last Monday’s -$1.13);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE-$1.42 after Thursday’s -$1.52);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.05 after Thursday’s -$0.34, Wednesday’s +$1.77 and last Tuesday’s -$0.19);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.73 after Thursday’s -$1.52, Wednesday’s +$1.15, Tuesday’s -$0.67 and last Monday’s -$0.75),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.52 after Thursday’s +$0.60);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.36 after Thursday’s -$0.26);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.32);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.31);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.29 after Thursday’s -$2.61, Wednesday’s +$7.31, Tuesday’s -$3.37 and last Monday’s +0.94);
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.250;

Closing flat: 1 – Stemline Therapeutics (STML – being acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: look closely … notice percentage (%) movements are declining

  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 19-upside were +0.13% (FIXX) to +9.14% (MESO) while the 15-downside ranged from -0.02% (IONS) to -8.09% (AGTC); 
  • Friday was a market holiday;
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 18-upside were +0.000% (BSTG) to +12.09% (BLFS) while the 14-downside ranged from -0.48% (BLCM) to -7.59% (MDXG); 

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators - cases:

Some states continued to report record-high levels of new cases over the holiday weekend yet, the market discounts the numbers however a vaccine won’t be available to late 2021.

  • Monday 2.89 million cases
  • Friday – not recorded
  • Thursday 2.7 million

Monday’s death rate totaled 130,007 after Friday being not reported after Thursday’s 128,421 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Upside volume stats: 

  • Monday: 4 out of the 19-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday was a market holiday;
  • Thursday: 4 out of the 18-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +0.26 points or +0.94% at 27.94;
  • Friday was a market holiday;
  • Thursday was down -0.94 points or -3.28% at 27.68;

Downside volume stats:

  • Monday: 3 out of the 15-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday was a market holiday;
  • Thursday: 3 out of the 14-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

July

Monday (7/6) closed positive with 19 advancers, 15 decliners and 1 flat

Friday was a market holiday;

Thursday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday (7/1) closed positive with 24 advancers, 7 decliners and 4 flats

 

The Bottom line:  Don’t DUMP your whole positions for July to same old theme and different session: “Skim if you can trim, buy if it will fly and sell if compelled!”

Earning’s season could be VERY volatile!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.