July 10, 2020 5:42pm

As far as our cell and gene therapy sector is concerned, another I told you so … from this a.m.’s post, “declining territory ahead.”

Pre-open indications: 5 HITs and 2 MISS

Week in review …

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The Dow closed UP +369.21 points (+1.44%), the S&P closed UP +32.99 points (+1.05 %) while the NASDAQ closed UP +69.69 points (+0.66%)

 

Pre-open indication results: 5 HITs < Sell into Strength, Toxic Sell Biostage (BSTG -$0.00), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.08), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$4.55), Fate therapeutics (FATE -$1.09), BUY - BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.51> and 2 MISS < Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.27), Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.16)>

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose Friday as news about a potential coronavirus treatment increased hope for an economic recovery following the outbreak.

  • Gilead Sciences (GILD +$1.61 or +2.15%) <said> its coronavirus treatment candidate, remdesivir, showed an improvement in clinical recovery and a 62% reduction in the risk of mortality compared with standard care.
  • BioNTech’s (CEO said) their coronavirus vaccine candidate could be ready for approval by December. Pfizer (PFE) and its German partner BioNTech SE are entering large-scale human trials this summer for their coronavirus vaccine and expect to seek FDA approval by the end of 2020.

Friday’s gains put the Dow up 0.9% for the week. The S&P 500 was up +1.7% and Nasdaq 4.0%.

For the year, the Dow is down -8.6%, the S&P 500 -1.4% while the Nasdaq is up more than 18%.

“For the US, the outlook is bleak – the COVID crisis continues to metastasize as transmissions stay elevated while hospitalizations and fatalities rise too,” said Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge, in a note. “While US bulls hang on to ‘Amazon, a vaccine, and the Fed’ and those three items will prevent a steep decline, it’s very hard to look at the SPX and find it near-term compelling.” <CNBC>

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Friday opened positive at 16/15 and 4 flats, dropped precipitously negative at the mid-day to 9/27 and 4 flats, closing negative at 9/22 and 4 flats;
  • Thursday opened positive at 18/14 and 3 flats, dropped precipitously negative at 10:18 a.m. to 7/27 and 2 flats, was negative at the mid-day at 7/25 and 3 flat, closing negative at 10/24 and 1 flat;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 22/11 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 24/10 and 1 flat, closing positive at 28/5 and 2 flats;
  • Tuesday opened positive at 16/15 and 4 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 23/9 and 3 flats, closing positive at 18/12 and 5 flats;
  • Monday opened positive at 21/11 and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 22/12 and 1 flat, closing positive at 19/15 and 1 flats;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was EXTREMELY LOW with 1 of the 9-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume and 1 out of the 22-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.38% (ADRO) to +8.43% (BLFS) while the 22-downside ranged from -0.61% (MESO) to -5.92% (ADVM); 

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP); bluebird bio (BLUE), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Editas medicine (EDIT) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) to name 5 of the 22 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Vericel (VCEL) to name 5 of the 9 trading up of 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed down -0.97% and XBI also closed down -1.02%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.17% and XBI also closed down -0.57%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +0.54% and XBI also closed up +1.50%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +0.44% and XBI also closed up +1.88%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +0.65% and XBI also closed up +0.03%

 

Friday’s (9 of 9) incliners:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.22 after Wednesday’s -$1.39);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.78 after Thursday’s +$1.11, Wednesday’s +$1.45, Tuesday’s -$0.64 and Monday’s -$0.29);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.65);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.51);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.52 after Thursday’s +$0.38 and announcing preliminary financial results for the quarter ended 6/30/20, and provided business updates);
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.21);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.08 after Thursday’s +$0.34 and announcing their P2a trial (BCT-201-EU) is expected to enroll approximately 40 patients with prodromal to mild AD. It will be taking place at medical centers in France and the Netherlands);
  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS +$0.03);
  • Aduro Biotech (ADRO +$0.01);

Friday’s (bottom 10 of 22) decliners:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$4.55);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$2.17);
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.69 after Thursday’s -$2.05, Wednesday’s +$2.12, Tuesday’s +$1.13 and Monday’s +$0.71);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.62);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$1.25 after Thursday’s -$0.51 and Wednesday’s +$1.16);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$1.25 after Thursday’s +$1.06, Wednesday’s +$1.08, Tuesday’s +$0.93 and Monday’s -$0.73);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.19 after Thursday’s -$0.290;
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.16 after Thursday’s -$0.55, Wednesday’s +$1.20, Tuesday’s +$1.50 and Monday’s -$1.89);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.09 after Thursday’s -$1.36 and announcing that the U.S. (FDA has cleared their Investigational New Drug (IND) application for FT819, an off-the-shelf allogeneic chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy targeting CD19+ malignancies.
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.76 after Thursday’s -$0.36);

Closing flat: 4 – Biostage (BSTG), ReNeuron (RENE.L), Verastem (VSTM) and Stemline Therapeutics (STML – being acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: look closely … notice percentage (%) movements are declining

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.38% (ADRO) to +8.43% (BLFS) while the 22-downside ranged from -0.61% (MESO) to -5.92% (ADVM); 
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 10-upside were +0.80% (BSTG) to +3.57% (ATHX) while the 24-downside ranged from -0.16% (CRSP) to -5.66% (CLBS); 
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 28-upside were +0.26% (ALNY) to +8.15% (CLLS) while the 5-downside ranged from -0.40% (BSTG) to -6.09% (FIXX); 
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 18-upside were +0.03% (GBT) to +10.93% (BLUE) while the 12-downside ranged from -0.33% (BLFS) to -15.83% (CLLS); 
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 19-upside were +0.13% (FIXX) to +9.14% (MESO) while the 15-downside ranged from -0.02% (IONS) to -8.09% (AGTC); 

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators - cases:

Record single-day spike in cases; Dr. Gottlieb (former FDA head) says 1 in 150 Americans are infected; is the market discounting the impact of the virus?

  • A key to today’s rally, Gilead Sciences (GILD) says remdesivir reduces risk of death in SOME patients

Virus ‘most likely’ transmitted through particles in the air, health officials say. Wearing masks is more important for the economic recovery at this point than fiscal or monetary policy, according to Robert Kaplan, president of the Federal Reserve’s Dallas district.

  • Friday 3.11 million cases
  • Thursday 3.05 million cases
  • Wednesday 3 million cases
  • Tuesday 2.93 million cases
  • Monday 2.89 million cases

Friday’s death rate totaled 133,291 after Thursday’s 132,309, Wednesday’s 131,594, Tuesday’s 130,306 and Monday’s 130,007 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Upside volume stats: low and lower

  • Friday: 1 out of the 9-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 5 out of the 10-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 7 out of the 28-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 7 out of the 18-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 4 out of the 19-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -1.97 points or -6.73% at 27.29;
  • Thursday was up +1.18 points or +4.20% at 29.26;
  • Wednesday was down -1.35 points or -4.59% at 28.08;
  • Tuesday was up +1.49 points or +5.33% at 29.43;
  • Monday was up +0.26 points or +0.94% at 27.94;

Downside volume stats:

  • Friday: 1 out of the 22-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 1 out of the 24-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 1 out of the 5-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 2 out of the 12-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 3 out of the 15-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

July

Friday closed negative with 9 advancers, 22 decliners and 4 flats

Thursday closed negative with 10 advancers, 24 decliners and 1 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 28 advancers, 5 decliners and 2 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 18 advancers, 12 decliners and 5 flats

Monday closed positive with 19 advancers, 15 decliners and 1 flat

Friday was a market holiday;

Thursday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday (7/1) closed positive with 24 advancers, 7 decliners and 4 flats

 

The Bottom line:  Today’s sector decline – expected, it was OVERBOUGHT.

I am glad this week is over; the closer we get to Q2 results and their announcements could also be scary – notice, three (so far) sales oriented cell therapy companies are announcing preliminary Q2 financial results <Vericel (VCEL) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS) who executed an offering and AxoGen (AXGN) who executed a draw-down debt deal>.

I am as much a keep your eyes, open ears flappy and a word writing (versus mouth shut) type of guy; as I have said to friends, associates and many – keep some things in the back of your mind, they will become relevant.

Many analysts have spent the past few weeks advising investors to buy the dips and pointing to unprecedented levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus, among other things, as reasons to be bullish on stocks.

  • Not BofA head of equity research Savita Subramanian.
  • On a midyear outlook briefing conducted this week via webinar, Subramanian explained that her year-end target for the S&P 500 SPX, 1.05% is 2,900, implying an 8% decline from current levels.
  • She offered one bull case for stocks — that they’ve rarely been so attractive, relative to bonds — but also noted a litany of headwinds.
  • She added, referring to the effort to resuscitate the economy from its pandemic doldrums:
  • “We’ve had a reopening frenzy, and now we’re seeing payback.” <MarketWatch>

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.