July 14, 2020 7:32pm

Pre-open indications: 4 HIT and 4 MISS

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The Dow closed UP +566.79 points (+2.13%), the S&P closed UP +42.30 points (+1.34%) while the NASDAQ closed UP +97.73 points (+0.94%)

 

Pre-open indication results: 4 HIT < Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.00), Athersys (ATHX +$0.16), bluebird bio (BLUE +$2.12), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.68)> and 4 MISS <Biostage (BSTG +$0.23 on 837 shares traded), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.11), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.25), uniQure NV (QURE -$0.56)>

 

Henry’omics:

Stocks rose on Tuesday as investors added exposure to some of the more cyclical names

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Tuesday opened negative at 12/22 and 1 flat, slipped neutral at the mid-day at 17/17 and 1 flat, closing positive at 25/8 and 2 flats;
  • Monday opened positive at 21/11 and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 22/9 and 4 flats, closing negative at 4/29 and 2 flats;
  • Friday opened positive at 16/15 and 4 flats, dropped precipitously negative at the mid-day to 9/27 and 4 flats, closing negative at 9/22 and 4 flats;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 25-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume and 3 out of the 8-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 25-upside were +0.18% (CLLS) to +38.89% (CLBS) while the 8-downside ranged from -0.35% (GBT) to -4.11% (BLCM); 

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • uniQure NV (QURE), Mesoblast (MESO), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) and Pluristem (PSTI) to name 5 of the 8 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and ReNeuron (RENE.L) to name 5 of the 25 trading up of 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +2.12% and XBI also closed up +2.55%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -1.34% and XBI also closed down -2.58%
  • Friday, the IBB closed down -0.97% and XBI also closed down -1.02%

 

Tuesday’s (10 of 25 incliners:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.68 after Monday’s -$3.24 and Friday’s -$4.55);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.49 after Monday’s -$9.51 after Friday’s +$3.22);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.52 after Monday’s -$1.79 and Friday’s -$1.19);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$2.50);
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$2.34 after Monday’s -$4.31 and Friday’s -$1.69);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$2.33);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$2.12 after Monday’s -$3.28 and Friday’s -$2.17);
  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS +$0.84 after Monday’s +$0.13 and Friday’s +$0.03);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.83 after Monday’s -$2.36 and Friday’s -$0.76);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.81 after Monday’s -$2.05 and Friday’s -$1.09);

Tuesday’s (bottom 8 of 8) decliners:

  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.56 after Monday’s -$2.34 and Friday’s -$1.25);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.31);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.28);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.25);
  • Pluristem (PSTI -$0.21);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.18);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.14);
  • Aduro Biotech (ADRO -$0.01 after Monday’s +$0.05 and Friday’s +$0.01);

Closing flat: 2 – Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) and Stemline Therapeutics (STML – being acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: look closely … notice percentage (%) movements are declining

  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the x-upside were +0.18% (CLLS) to +38.89% (CLBS) while the xx-downside ranged from -0.35% (GBT) to -4.11% (BLCM); 
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 4-upside were +0.60% (AXGN) to +6.40% (CLBS) while the 29-downside ranged from -0.10% (BLFS) to -9.91% (NTLA); 
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.38% (ADRO) to +8.43% (BLFS) while the 22-downside ranged from -0.61% (MESO) to -5.92% (ADVM); 

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators - cases:

Sentiment got a boost after Florida reported a daily coronavirus case increase that was below a seven-day average. California’s daily Covid-19 case rate decreased slightly from Monday’s as well.

YET, hot-spot states, including Texas, California and Florida, state and local officials are reconsidering reopening plans.

  • Tuesday 3.3 million cases
  • Monday 3.3 million cases
  • Friday 3.11 million cases

Tuesday’s death rate totaled 135,900 after Monday’s 135,205 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Upside volume stats: 

  • Tuesday: 5 out of the 25-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 4-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 1 out of the 9-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was down -2.67 points or -8.29% at 29.52
  • Monday was up +4.90 points or +17.96% at 32.19
  • Friday was down -1.97 points or -6.73% at 27.29;

Downside volume stats:

  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 8-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 10 out of the 29-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 1 out of the 22-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

July

Tuesday closed positive with 25 advancers, 8 decliners and 2 flats

Monday (7/13) closed negative with 4 advancers, 29 decliners and 2 flats

Friday closed negative with 9 advancers, 22 decliners and 4 flats

Thursday closed negative with 10 advancers, 24 decliners and 1 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 28 advancers, 5 decliners and 2 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 18 advancers, 12 decliners and 5 flats

Monday (7/6) closed positive with 19 advancers, 15 decliners and 1 flat

Friday was a market holiday;

Thursday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday (7/1) closed positive with 24 advancers, 7 decliners and 4 flats

 

The Bottom line:  Reiterating, I believe we are at a scary time in the sector and the market – the upside is like “rolling thunder” however, I had expected a reversal after the downside slide!

There has been NO news of value although Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.81) entered into an exclusive license agreement with Baylor College of Medicine covering alloimmune defense receptors, a first-in-class approach that renders off-the-shelf allogeneic cell products resistant to host immune rejection and got a pop.

Again, “How can the stock market be so strong in the face of such bad (infection) news? Investors are valuing companies over the SHORT term and chasing pricing - these present “assumptions” have led to a big overbought dip.”

Q2 results are coming, so will momentum last? I tend to be a contrarian – safety is NOT a virtue! Speculation has proved to be a VICE … it’s gambling in a bigger casino or sports stadium.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.