July 16, 2020 5:30pm

Another I told you so

Pre-open indications: 4 HIT and 3 MISS

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The Dow closed DOWN -135.39 points (-0.50%), the S&P closed DOWN -10.99 points (-0.34%) while the NASDAQ closed DOWN -76.66 points (-0.73%)

 

Pre-open indication results: 4 HITs <Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.83), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.30), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.88), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.29) and 3 MISS Pluristem (PSTI +$0.33), BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.37), Biostage (BSTG +$0.21 on 1,540 shares traded at end of session),  

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes fell on Thursday as shares of the major tech companies struggled once again as traders digested  economic data.

  • The weekly jobless claims number came in slightly worse than expected. The Labor Department said a total of 1.3 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, compared to estimates of 1.25 million first-time filers.
  • Retail sales jumped 7.5% in June, topping expectations of a 5.2% increase after May’s 17.7% surge, which blew past estimates and was the largest reading on record.

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Thursday opened negative at 5/27 and 3 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 5/27 and 3 flats, closing negative at 7/25 and 3 flats;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 29/4 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 29/5 and 1 flat, closing positive at 30/4 and 1 flat;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 12/22 and 1 flat, strayed neutral at the mid-day at 17/17 and 1 flat, closing positive at 25/8 and 2 flats;
  • Monday opened positive at 21/11 and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 22/9 and 4 flats, closing negative at 4/29 and 2 flats;

 

Key metrics:

Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 7-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume and 2 out of the 25-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

  • Versus … Wednesday’s sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 30-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume and 2 out of the 4-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 7-upside were +0.81% (CLBS) to +7.66% (BSTG) while the 25-downside ranged from -0.13% (AXGN) to -6.04% (VYGR); 

  • Versus … Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 30-upside were +0.08% (BCLI) to +7.37% (CLLS) while the 4-downside ranged from -0.70% (MDXG) to -17.33% (CLBS); 

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Regenxbio (RGNX), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) to name 5 of the 25 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI), Homology Medicine (FIXX), Pluristem (PSTI), Precigen (PGEN), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), Biostage (BSTG) to name 7 of the 7 trading up of 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.82% and XBI also closed down -0.92%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +1.68% and XBI also closed up +2.13%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +2.12% and XBI also closed up +2.55%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -1.34% and XBI also closed down -2.58%

 

Thursday’s (7 of 7 incliners:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.72 after Wednesday’s +$3.08, Tuesday’s +$2.12 and Monday’s -$3.28);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.57);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.49);
  • Pluristem (PSTI +$0.30);
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.21)
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.15);
  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS +$0.02 after Wednesday’s-$0.52, Tuesday’s +$0.84 and Monday’s +$0.13);

Thursday’s (10 of 25) decliners:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.00 after Wednesday’s +$2.41, Tuesday’s +$4.68 after Monday’s -$3.24);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.99);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.46 after Wednesday’s +$1.61 and Tuesday’s +$2.33);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.41 after Wednesday’s +$1.60, Tuesday’s +$2.52 and Monday’s -$1.79);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.32);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.17);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.96 after Wednesday’s +$1.22);
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.83 after Wednesday’s +$0.93);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.76 after Wednesday’s +$1.45);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.66 after Wednesday’s +$1.39, Tuesday’s -$0.56 and Monday’s -$2.34);

Closing flat: 3 – ReNeuron (RENE.L), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO), Stemline Therapeutics (STML – being acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: look closely … notice percentage (%) movements are declining

  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 7-upside were +0.81% (CLBS) to +7.66% (BSTG) while the 25-downside ranged from -0.13% (AXGN) to -6.04% (VYGR); 
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 30-upside were +0.08% (BCLI) to +7.37% (CLLS) while the 4-downside ranged from -0.70% (MDXG) to -17.33% (CLBS); 
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the x-upside were +0.18% (CLLS) to +38.89% (CLBS) while the xx-downside ranged from -0.35% (GBT) to -4.11% (BLCM); 
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 4-upside were +0.60% (AXGN) to +6.40% (CLBS) while the 29-downside ranged from -0.10% (BLFS) to -9.91% (NTLA); 

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

“Wall Street was also coming off strong gains from Wednesday’s session, as news regarding a potential coronavirus vaccine lifted investor sentiment. <CNBC>
I had stated expectations should be tempered.

  • Thursday’s 3.5 cases
  • Wednesday 3.43 million cases
  • Tuesday 3.3 million cases
  • Monday 3.3 million cases

Thursday’s death rate totaled 137,846 after Wednesday’s 136,400 after Tuesday’s 135,900 after Monday’s 135,205 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Upside volume stats: 

  • Thursday: 3 out of the 7-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 3 out of the 30-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 5 out of the 25-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 4-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.21 points or -0.76% at 27.55
  • Wednesday was down -1.76 points or -5.96% at 27.76
  • Tuesday was down -2.67 points or -8.29% at 29.52
  • Monday was up +4.90 points or +17.96% at 32.19

Downside volume stats:

  • Thursday: 2 out of the 25-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 2 out of the 4-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 8-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 10 out of the 29-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

July

Thursday closed negative with 7 advancers, 25 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 30 advancers, 4 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed positive with 25 advancers, 8 decliners and 2 flats

Monday (7/13) closed negative with 4 advancers, 29 decliners and 2 flats

Friday closed negative with 9 advancers, 22 decliners and 4 flats

Thursday closed negative with 10 advancers, 24 decliners and 1 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 28 advancers, 5 decliners and 2 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 18 advancers, 12 decliners and 5 flats

Monday (7/6) closed positive with 19 advancers, 15 decliners and 1 flat

Friday was a market holiday;

Thursday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday (7/1) closed positive with 24 advancers, 7 decliners and 4 flats

 

The Bottom line:  Haven’t change MY view …

Reiterating, “I believe we are at a scary time in the sector and the market – the upside is like “rolling thunder” however, I had expected a reversal after the downside slide!”

Q2 results are coming, so will momentum last? I tend to be a contrarian – safety is NOT a virtue! Speculation has proved to be a VICE … it’s gambling in a bigger casino or on sports.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.