July 24, 2020 5:23pm

Geopolitical tensions, upcoming Q2 results, jobless claims, stalled reopening and renewed shutdowns during the coronavirus epidemic   

Pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 4 MISS

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Week in review …

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The Dow closed DOWN -182.44 points (-0.68%), the S&P closed DOWN – 20.03 points (-0.62%) while the NASDAQ closed DOWN -98.24 points (-0.94%)

 

Pre-open indication results: 6 HITs <Biostage (BSTG -$0.46), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.03), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.06), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.24), Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.33), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.45) 4 MISS < Mesoblast (MESO +$0.17), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.45) Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.53), uniQure NV (QURE -$1.25).

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes fell on Friday as the week wrapped up volatile f trading with RegMed, cell and gene therapy shares declining for four (4) out of five (5) sessions as U.S.-China tensions rose.

For the week, the Dow fell -0.07%, the S&P declined -0.02% as the NASDAQ faded -1.3%.

Also, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) — seen by many investors as the best “fear gauge” on Wall Street — traded above 25 <see week’s breakdown>.

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: surge and purge, gains and pains … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11471

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Friday opened negative at 7/27 and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day at 6/29 and 1 flat, closing negative at 7/28 and 1 flat;
  • Thursday opened negative at 15/18 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 11/22 and 2 flats, closing negative at 4/29 and 2 flats;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 15/19 and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day at 11/23 and 1 flat, closing negative at 12/22 and 1 flat;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 14/18 and 3 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 24/10 and 1 flat, closing negative at 10/24 and 1 flat;
  • Monday opened positive at 21/11 and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 23/11 and 1 flat, closing positive at 24/10 and 1 flat;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 7-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume and 3 out of the 28-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 7-upside were +0.11% (RGNX) to +5.80% (VSTM) while the 28-downside ranged from -0.35% (ADVM) to -15.03% (BSTG); 

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), bluebird bio (BLUE), Ultragenyx (RARE), uniQure NV (QURE) to name 5 of the 28 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Mesoblast (MESO), MiMedx (OTC Pink sheets: MDXG), Regenxbio (RGNX), Verastem (VSTM), Vericel (VCEL), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) to name 7 of the 7 trading up of 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed down -2.19% and XBI also closed down -2.34%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -1.85% and XBI also closed down -2.02%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -0.25% and XBI also closed down -0.48%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -2.29% and XBI also closed down -2.08%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +1.28% and XBI also closed up +1.36%

 

Friday’s (7 of 7 incliners:

  • Sage therapeutics (SAGE +$0.36);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.17);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.11);
  • Verastem (VSTM +$0.08);
  • MiMedx (OTC Pink sheets: MDXG +$0.08);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.04 after Thursday’s-$1.47, Wednesday’s +$0.89, Tuesday’s -$1.72 and Monday’s -$0.37);
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.03);

Friday’s (10 of 28) decliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$3.50 after Thursday’s -$1.00, Wednesday’s -$9.00, Tuesday’s -$4.25 and Monday’s +$2.50);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.51 after Thursday’s -$3.37);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$1.25);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.16 after Thursday’s -$4.02, Wednesday’s -$1.35, Tuesday’s -$3.61 and Monday’s +$2.03);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.02);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.01 after Thursday’s +$0.05, Wednesday’s -$0.91 after Tuesday’s +$0.42 and Monday’s +$1.45);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.75 after Thursday’s -$0.97, Wednesday’s -$0.38, Tuesday’s -$1.02 and Monday’s -$0.08);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.62 after Thursday’s -$1.07, Wednesday’s -$0.24 and Tuesday’s -$1.11);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.53 after Thursday’s -$0.74, Wednesday’s -$0.44, Tuesday’s +$0.01 and Monday’s +$1.23);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.50 after Thursday’s -$0.50 and Wednesday’s -$0.71);

Closing flat: 1 –Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: look closely … notice percentage (%) movements are declining

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 7-upside were +0.11% (RGNX) to +5.80% (VSTM) while the 28-downside ranged from -0.35% (ADVM) to -15.03% (BSTG); 
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 4-upside were +0.24% (BLFS) to +2.46% (SLDB) while the 29-downside ranged from -0.04% (GBT) to -6.51% (PGEN); 
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 12-upside were +0.06% (CLLS) to +6.25% (OTC Pink sheets: MDXG) while the 9-downside ranged from -0.01% (GBT) to -6.67% (RENE.L); 
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 10-upside were +0.06% (FIXX) to +2.67% (MESO) while the 24-downside ranged from -0.33% (BSTG) to -6.88% (EDIT); 
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 24-upside were +0.23% (VYGR) to +8.07% (FIXX) while the 10-downside ranged from -0.13% (IONS) to -4.98% (ADVM); 

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

U.S. daily new cases of the coronavirus appear to be tapering off, on a 7-day rolling average basis, as states pull back reopening plans, more companies mandate public safety measures and widespread testing delays hinder data collection.

The Senate will delay the release of their coronavirus relief plan until next week, all but ensuring that Congress will miss a deadline to extend a key unemployment insurance boost. <CNBC>

  • Friday 4.07 million cases
  • Thursday 3.9 million cases
  • Wednesday 3.9 million cases
  • Tuesday 3.85 million cases
  • Monday 3.77 million cases

Friday’s death rate totaled 144,780 after Thursday’s 143,100, Wednesday’s 142,095, Tuesday’s 141,118, Monday’s 140,563 and last Friday’s 138,000 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Upside volume stats: 

  • Friday: 0 out of the 7-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 2 out of the 4-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 1 out of the 12-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 6 out of the 10-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 6 out of the 24-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.24 points or +-0.92% at 25.84
  • Thursday was up +1.76 points or +7.24% at 26.08
  • Wednesday was down -0.52 points or -2.09% at 24.32
  • Tuesday was up +0.38 points or +1.55% at 24.84
  • Monday was down -1.22 points or -4.75% at 24.46

Downside volume stats:

  • Friday: 3 out of the 28-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 4 out of the 29-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 2 out of the 22-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 4 out of the 24-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 0 out of the 10-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

July

Friday closed negative with 7 advancers, 28 decliners and 1 flat

Thursday closed negative with 4 advancers, 29 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 12 advancers, 22 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 10 advancers, 24 decliners and 1 flat

Monday (7/20) closed positive with 24 advancers, 10 decliners and 1 flat

Friday closed positive with 24 advancers, 9 decliners and 2 flats

Thursday closed negative with 7 advancers, 25 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 30 advancers, 4 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed positive with 25 advancers, 8 decliners and 2 flats

Monday (7/13) closed negative with 4 advancers, 29 decliners and 2 flats

Friday closed negative with 9 advancers, 22 decliners and 4 flats

Thursday closed negative with 10 advancers, 24 decliners and 1 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 28 advancers, 5 decliners and 2 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 18 advancers, 12 decliners and 5 flats

Monday (7/6) closed positive with 19 advancers, 15 decliners and 1 flat

Friday was a market holiday;

Thursday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday (7/1) closed positive with 24 advancers, 7 decliners and 4 flats

 

The Bottom line: I am glad the week is over; my view of it is WEAKNESS is beginning to show!

NOT changing MY tune … although even I MISS a few with my HITs on my pre-open indication “calls” – at the least I was even - today!

Q2 sector results should start appearing in the first week of August … AxoGen (AXGN) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals IONS on 8/5, Editas Medicine (EDIT) with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) on 8/6 and Athersys (ATHX), Vericel (VCEL), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on 8/10.

They will also be a litmus test of on-going sector share pricing … challenging will be a key word!

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.