July 30, 2020 7:05pm

When you’re on a roller coaster, the only thing you can be sure of is you’ll end up back where you started

Pre-open indications: 2 HITs and 2 MISS

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't; I put into context what is relevant for investors

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The Dow closed DOWN -225.92 points (-0.85%), the S&P closed DOWN -12.22 points (-0.38%) while the NASDAQ closed UP +44.87 points (+0.43%)

 

Pre-open indication results: 2 HITs <Biostage (BSTG -$0.49), Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.06) and 2 MISS <CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.83), bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.05)>

 

Henry’omics:

The Dow and S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday as investors digested a huge drop in economic reports affirming the worst quarterly drop of economic activity on record during Q2 and showed a second straight increase in weekly unemployment insurance claims.

Investors also continued to digest the Fed’s latest monetary policy statement, which was largely viewed as dovish as officials braced for weak growth due to the virus.

This a.m.’s newsletter, RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde might make for a great read … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11479 . 

<Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles offer a cautionary tale>  

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Thursday opened positive at 19/15 and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day at 22/11 and 3 flats, closing positive at 24/8 and 3 flats;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 12/21 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 9/24 and 2 flats, closing negative at 9/25 and 2 flats;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 5/28 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 8/25 and 2 flats, closing negative at 6/27 and 2 flats;
  • Monday opened positive at 25/7 and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 21/12 and 2 flats, closing positive at 22/11 and 2 flats;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 24-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume and 1 out of the 8-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 24-upside were +0.37% (ALNY) to +14.55% (SGMO) while the 8-downside ranged from -0.18% (VCEL) to -18.92% (BSTG); 

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), bluebird bio (BLUE), Biostage (BSTG), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Cellectis SA (CLLS), Vericel (VCEL), Verastem (VSTM) to name 8 of the 8 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • uniQure NV (QURE), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO), Ultragenyx (RARE), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) to name 5 of the 24 trading up of 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.29% and XBI also closed up +1.43%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -1.11% and XBI also closed down -1.62%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -1.35% and XBI also closed down -2.55%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +2.67% and XBI also closed up +2.59%

 

Thursday’s (1 of 24) incliners:

  • uniQure NV (QURE +$1.68 after Wednesday’s -$1.81, Tuesday’s -$1.48 and Monday’s +$1.54);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$1.44);
  • Ultragenyx (+$1.35);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.03 after Wednesday’s -$2.49, Tuesday’s +$9.22 and Monday’s -$1.00);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.83) after Wednesday’s -$0.87, Tuesday’s -$5.72 and Monday’s +$1.77)
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.82);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.81 after Wednesday’s +$0.20, Tuesday’s -$0.99);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.59);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.55 after Wednesday’s -$3.77, Tuesday’s -$3.18 and Monday’s +$4.41);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.37 after Wednesday’s +$0.07);

Thursday’s (8 of 8) decliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$2.50 after Wednesday’s -$2.50, Tuesday’s +$5.00 and Monday’s -$9.00);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.05 after Wednesday’s -$3.42);
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.49 after Wednesday’s -$0.01);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.14 after Wednesday’s +$0.37);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.22 after Wednesdays’ +$0.04);
  • Sage therapeutics (SAGE -$0.14);
  • Cellectis SA (-$0.07);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.03 after Wednesday’s +$0.48);
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0.015);

Closing flat: 3 – Athersys (ATHX), MiMedx (OTC Pink sheets: MDXG) and Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: comparisons

  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 24-upside were +0.37% (ALNY) to +14.55% (SGMO) while the 8-downside ranged from -0.18% (VCEL) to -18.92% (BSTG); 
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.57% (MESO) to +5.88% (PSTI) while the 25-downside ranged from -0.13% (SAGE) to -8.80% (FIXX); 
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 6-upside were +0.31% (GBT) to +4.44% (RENE.L) while the 27-downside ranged from -0.32% (BLUE) to -9.64% (SGMO); 
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 22-upside were +1.64% (RGNX) to +10.01% (MESO) while the 11-downside ranged from -0.58% (BCLI) to -10.53% (SLDB); 

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Democrats and Republicans have made little progress toward a new coronavirus relief package as a weekly benefit $600 for those unemployed due to the pandemic is set to expire on Friday.  <CNBC>

  • Thursday 4.42 cases
  • Wednesday 4.36 cases
  • Tuesday 4.3 million cases
  • Monday 4.26 million cases

Thursday’s death rate totaled 150,733 after Wednesday’s 149,375, Tuesday’s 148,298 and Monday’s 147,143 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume: 

  • Thursday: 2 out of the 24-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 2 out of the 9-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 2 out of the 6-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 3 out of the 22-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up +0.66 points or +2.74% at 24.76
  • Wednesday was down -1.34 points or -5.27% at 24.10
  • Tuesday was up +0.86 points or +3.48% at 25.59
  • Monday was down -1.10 points or -4.26% at 24.74

Downside volume:

  • Thursday: 1 out of the 8-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 6 out of the 25-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 5 out of the 27-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 3 out of the 11-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

July

Thursday closed positive with 24 advancers, 8 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 9 advancers, 25 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 6 advancers, 27 decliners and 2 flats

Monday (7/27) closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners and 2 flats

Friday closed negative with 7 advancers, 27 decliners and 1 flat

Thursday closed negative with 4 advancers, 29 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 12 advancers, 22 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 10 advancers, 24 decliners and 1 flat

Monday (7/20) closed positive with 24 advancers, 10 decliners and 1 flat

Friday closed positive with 24 advancers, 9 decliners and 2 flats

Thursday closed negative with 7 advancers, 25 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 30 advancers, 4 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed positive with 25 advancers, 8 decliners and 2 flats

Monday (7/13) closed negative with 4 advancers, 29 decliners and 2 flats

Friday closed negative with 9 advancers, 22 decliners and 4 flats

Thursday closed negative with 10 advancers, 24 decliners and 1 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 28 advancers, 5 decliners and 2 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 18 advancers, 12 decliners and 5 flats

Monday (7/6) closed positive with 19 advancers, 15 decliners and 1 flat

Friday was a market holiday;

Thursday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday (7/1) closed positive with 24 advancers, 7 decliners and 4 flats

 

The Bottom line:  My concern during earnings’ season, “As the cell and gene therapy sector runs out of buyers, it runs into trouble (just like a fire that runs out of wood).”

I say it again, “the sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be … when you point one finger, there are three fingers pointing back at you!”

Reiterating, “volatility sketches a contradictory picture of the short-term.”

Make sure (if at all possible) the companies whose stocks one holds or plan to buy can demonstrate the ability sustain share pricing!

An earning’s beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earning’s beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earning’s miss.

Same theme, different session: Skim if you can trim, buy if it will fly and sell if compelled!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.