August 4, 2020 7:07pm

A bubble is a bubble until stimulus “talks” are solidified and even then?

Pre-open indication results: 6 HITs and 1 MISS

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The Dow closed UP +164.07 points (+0.62%), the S&P closed UP +11.90 points (+0.36%) while the NASDAQ closed UP +38.37 points (+0.35%)

 

Pre-open indication results: 6 HITS <Biostage (BSTG -$0.01), Athersys (ATHX -$0.05), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.30), uniQure NV (QURE -$0.08), Mesoblast (MESO +$1.27), Pluristem (PSTI -$0.76)> and 1 MISS < Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.60)>

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose across the board on Tuesday, building on Monday’s session’s gains, as lawmakers tried to make inroads on a new coronavirus stimulus package.

This a.m. I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter - RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: somethings gotta give … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11485  “It’s not the movie … how long can markets ignore coronavirus deaths and headlines, damage to the economy, once normal living and continue animus over a fiscal relief package”

Also, this a.m.’s Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles also offered a warning especially their “art of deceptions” re past PPP loan and future of debt and possible non-compliance as the soon to be approved stimulus bill includes an INELIGIBILITY warning of future loans with Chinese board of directors (BOD) – three (3) on the BOD of BSTG <read a.m. post for who> and possibilities of non-forgiveness of the $404,211.00 already loaned through Bank of America.

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Tuesday opened negative at 8/25 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 13/21 and 1 flat, closing negative at 13/20 and 2 flats;
  • Monday opened positive at 27/6 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 25/3 and 2 flats, closing positive at 31/1 and 3 flats;
  • Friday opened negative at 9/23 and 3 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 6/28 and 1 flat, closing negative at 7/27 and 1 flat;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 13-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume and the 2 of 20-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 13-upside were +0.08% (IONS) to +7.52% (MESO) while the 20-downside ranged -0.10% (BLFS) to -8.90% (ADRO); 

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), Regenxbio (RGNX), Pluristem (PSTI), Brainstorm Cell therapeutics (BCLI) to name 5 of the 20 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Mesoblast (MESO), AxoGen (AXGN), Ultragenyx (RARE) to name 5 of the 13 trading up of 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB closed down -0.64% and XBI also closed down -0.31%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +3.13% and XBI also closed up +4.20%
  • Friday, the IBB closed down -1.93% and XBI also closed down -2.35%

 

Tuesday’s (10 of 31) incliners:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$3.37);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.07 after Monday’s +$7.04 and Friday’s -$0.90)
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$1.08);
  • Ultragenyx (+$0.63 after Monday’s +$5.38 and Friday’s +$0.56);
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.53);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.46 after Monday’s +$6.54 and Friday’s -$5.35);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.34);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.31 after Monday’s +$2.21 and Friday’s -$1.27);
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.16);
  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS +$0.10);

Tuesday’s (10 of 20) decliners:

  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.72 after Monday’s +$3.00 and Friday’s -$2.02);
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.98);
  • Pluristem (PSTI -$0.88);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.69);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.59 after Monday’s +$1.94 and Friday’s -$0.33);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.59);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.55);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.37);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.34 after Monday’s +$2.08 and Friday’s -$0.59);
  • Aduro Biotech (ADRO -$0.26);

Closing flat: 2 – ReNeuron (RENE.L) and Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: comparisons

  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 13-upside were +0.08% (IONS) to +7.52% (MESO) while the 20-downside ranged -0.10% (BLFS) to -8.90% (ADRO); 
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 31-upside were +1.33% (AGTC) to +8.24% (CRSP) while the 1-downside was -14.80% (BSTG); 
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 7-upside were +0.72% (RARE) to +19.05% (BSTG) while the 27-downside ranged from -0.21% (BLFS) to -5.67% (FIXX); 

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

The wrangling over the stimulus, coronavirus relief continues struggling due to party polarization.

  • Tuesday 4.71 cases
  • Monday 4.66 cases,
  • Friday 4.4 cases,

Tuesday’s death rate totaled 155,478 after Monday’s 154,860 and Friday’s 152,074 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume: 

  • Tuesday: 2 out of the 13-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 8 out of the 31-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 5 out of the 7-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was down -0.52 points or -2.14% at 23.76
  • Monday was down -0.18 points or -0.74% at 24.28
  • Friday was down -0.30 points or -1.21% at 24.46

Downside volume:

  • Tuesday: 2 out of the 20-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 1-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 4 out of the 27-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

August, the second month of Q3 …

Tuesday closed negative with 13 advancers, 20 decline and 2 flats

Monday (8/3) closed positive with 31 advancers, 1 decline and 3 flats

 

The Bottom line:  The myth of Icarus flying too high was also exhibited by RegMed/cell and gene therapy stocks as earnings reporting swings up - tomorrow.

The major averages were coming off their fourth (4th) consecutive monthly gain in July, with last months “numbers” inclining as the Dow gained 2.4%, the S&P 500 rising 5.5% and the Nasdaq jumping more than 6%.

After yesterday’s earnings’ report by Aduro Biotech (ADRO -$0.26), we are headed into the storm of earnings announcements this week … which will open the kimono of LPS (loss-per-share) and visibility of development status and revenue’s expectation versus estimates.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.