August 13, 2020 7:07pm

With NO significant news, it’s still a speculative and earnings’ driven sector

Pre-open indication results: 4 HIT and 3 MISS

Earnings: Biostage (BSTG) net loss of -$1.2 M or -$0.14 per share, cash $600 K and debt -$400 K

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't; I put into context what is relevant for investors

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The Dow closed DOWN -80.12 points (-0.29%), the S&P closed DOWN -6.92 points (-0.20%) while the NASDAQ closed UP +30.26 points (+0.27%)

 

Pre-open indication results: 4 HITs <Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$2.39), Biostage (BSTG -$0.22), Mesoblast (MESO $0.00), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.43) and 3 MISS < Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.04), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.06), Editas medicine (EDIT +$0.57)>

 

Henry’omics:

The Dow and S&P 500 closed lower as the Nasdaq stayed up on Thursday after flirting with its record high from February as traders digested better-than-expected unemployment data and monitored the stalemate in stimulus negotiations.

This a.m. I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: let’s not downplay the importance of indications … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11500

From this a.m.’s “Data Docket”, Initial weekly jobless claims fell below 1 million for the first time since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

  • The Labor Department reported that 963,000 Americans filed for first-time jobless benefits in the week ended Aug. 8, down from a revised 1.186 million claims the week earlier. Economists polled had been expecting claims of 1.15 million.

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Thursday opened positive at 25/7 and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 18/13 and 4 flats, closing positive at 19/11 and 4 flats;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 21/11 and 3 flats, flipped negative at the mid-day at 12/20 and 3 flats, closing negative at 13/19 and 3 flats;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 8/25 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 5/28 and 2 flats, closing negative at 3/32 and 1 flat;
  • Monday opened positive at 24/10 and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day at 25/9 and 1 flat, closing positive at 25/8 and 2 flats;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 19-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume and the 1 of 11-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 19-upside were +0.21% (IONS) to +4.33% (ATHX) while the 11-downside ranges from -0.38% (VCEL) to -16.04% (ADVM); 

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), bluebird bio (BLUE), Biostage (BSTG), Precigen (PGEN), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) to name 5 of the 11 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Regenxbio (RGNX) to name 5 of the 19 trading up of 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.14% and XBI also closed up +1.38%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +1.46% and XBI also closed up +0.32%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -2.22% and XBI also closed down -3.98%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -1% and XBI also closed down -0.01%

 

Thursday’s (10 of 19) incliners:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.08 after Wednesday’s +$0.95 and Tuesday’s -$2.29);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.90 after Wednesday’s -$0.59);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.74);
  • Editas medicine (EDIT +$0.57 after Wednesday’s +$0.56 after Tuesday’s -$1.32 and Monday’s +$0.80);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.54 after Wednesday’s -$0.78);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.54 after Wednesday’s -$1.49, Tuesday’s -$2.75 and Monday’s +$1.55);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.43 after Wednesday’s +$1.86, Tuesday’s -$1.32 and Monday’s +$0.96);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.37 after Wednesday’s +$0.27);
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.36);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.29 after Wednesday’s +$1.12);

Thursday’s (11 of 11) decliners:

  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$2.39 after Wednesday’s -$0.69, Tuesday’s -$3.11 and a proposed 14.5 million shares offering);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.88 after Wednesday’s -$0.71, Tuesday’s -$3.28 and Monday’s +$2.29);
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.22);
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.16);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.11);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.06 after Wednesday’s -$0.46);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.06 after Wednesday’s -$0.40 and Tuesday’s +$0.13);
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.04);
  • Pluristem (PSTI -$0.04 after Wednesday’s +$0.22);
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0.02);
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.01);

Closing flat: 4 –Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), Mesoblast (MESO), ReNeuron (RENE.L) and Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: comparisons

  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 19-upside were +0.21% (IONS) to +4.33% (ATHX) while the 11-downside ranges from -0.38% (VCEL) to -16.04% (ADVM); 
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 13-upside were +0.06% (ALNY) to +6.21% (VSTM) while the 19-downside ranges from -0.09% (VYGR) to -7.52% (BLFS); 
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 3-upside were +0.18% (VYGR) to +0.88% (RENE.L) while the 32-downside ranges from -$0.69 (BSTG) to -34.96% (MESO); 
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 25-upside were +0.06% (CLLS) to +8.60% (MESO) while the 8-downside ranges from -$0.09 (VYGR) to -4.50% (GBT); 

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Sentiment seemed mixed Thursday after initial weekly jobless claims fell below 1 million for the first time since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic and stimulus talks remained deadlocked.

  • Thursday 5.2 cases
  • Wednesday 5.1 cases,
  • Tuesday 5.09 cases,
  • Monday 5.05 cases,

Thursday’s death rate totaled 166,623 after Wednesday’s 164,900, Tuesday’s 163,400 and Monday’s 162,950 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume: 

  • Thursday: 0 out of the 19-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 3 out of the 13-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 1 out of the 3-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 3 out of the 25-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.15 points or -0.67% at 22.13
  • Wednesday was down -1.75 points or -7.28% at 22.28
  • Tuesday was up +1.90 points or 8.59% at 24.03
  • Monday was down -0.08 points or -0.35% at 22.13

Downside volume:

  • Thursday: 1 out of the 11-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 3 out of the 19-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 9 out of the 32-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 8-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

August, the second month of Q3 …

Thursday closed positive with 19 advancers, 11 decline and 4 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 13 advancers, 19 declines and 3 flats

Tuesday closed negative with 3 advancers, 32 declines and 1 flat

Monday (8/10) closed positive with 25 advancers, 8 declines and 2 flats

Friday closed positive with 21 advancers, 11 declines and 3 flats

Thursday closed negative with 11 advancers, 23 decline and 1 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 19 advancers, 15 declines and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 13 advancers, 20 declines and 2 flats

Monday (8/3) closed positive with 31 advancers, 1 decline and 3 flats

 

The Bottom line: As I stated in the title, there is no significant news of stimulus relief as unemployment numbers were lower.  Thematic of the market is rotation from being oversold and waiting for the overbought clue.

On vacation … yet, I end up doing more than usual … there will be a re-do!

While many talk about the shift in alternating sentiment, I monitor the pulse and focus of possible outcomes

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.