Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: analysts don’t always have the luxury of time or deferring judgement to come to a definitive, it’s about the reliability of current evidence

August 19, 2020 7:26pm

Pre-open indication results: 6 HITs and 0 MISS

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector. I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't.

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The Dow closed DOWN -85.19 points (-0.31%), the S&P closed DOWN -14.93 points (-0.44%) while the NASDAQ closed DOWN -64.38 points (-0.57%)

Pre-open indication results: 6 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.18), Mesoblast (MESO -$1.14), Cellectis SA (CLLS +$1.14), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.19), Pluristem (PSTI +$1.05), Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.40) and 0 MISS

Henry’omics:

Indexes closed lower on Wednesday as a grim outlook on the economy from the Fed.

In the minutes from its July meeting, the Fed said “the ongoing public health crisis would weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term and was posing considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.” The Fed kept rates unchanged last month, noting the economy was still in need of monetary support.

This a.m. I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: objectivity and realism … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11508

As I stated yesterday, “Enjoy the highs while they last” … and they didn’t - again. I make a commitment to provide need-to-know “facts in evidence” as equity’s volatility is one tactical signal for stocks.

Continue to “grip” your portfolio, the worst isn’t over …

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

Wednesday opened negative at 12/20 and 3 flats, strayed positive at the mid-day at 17/14 and 4 flats, closing negative at 16/17 and 2 flats;
Tuesday opened negative at 8/26 and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day at 9/24 and 2 flats, closing negative at 13/20 and 2 flats;
Monday opened positive at 27/7 and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day at 29/4 and 2 flats, closing positive at 29/4 and 2 flats;

Key metrics:

Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 16-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume and the 5 of 17-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 16-upside were +0.05% (RARE) to +10.89% (PSTI) while the 17-downside ranges from -0.51% (EDIT) to -13.33% (BSTG);

Hammered in today’s market:

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Regenxbio (RGNX), uniQure NV (QURE), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Mesoblast (MESO) to name 5 of the 17 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Cellectis SA (CLLS), Pluristem (PSTI), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Precigen (PGEN) to name 5 of the 16 trading up of 35 covered

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Wednesday, the IBB closed down -1.06% and XBI also closed down -0.17%
Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.57% and XBI also closed down -0.88%
Monday, the IBB closed up +1.97% and XBI also closed up +3.50%

Wednesday’s (10 of 16) incliners:

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$5.72 after Tuesday’s +$3.27 and Monday’s +$2.15);
Cellectis SA (CLLS +$1.14 after Tuesday’s +$0.74);
Pluristem (PSTI +$1.05);
Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.63 after Tuesday’s -$0.48 and Monday’s +$3.43);
Precigen (PGEN +$0.39);
Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.34 after Tuesday’s +$0.34);
Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.32 after Tuesday’s +$0.21):
Vericel (VCEL +$0.28 after Tuesday’s +$0.15);
Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.17 after Tuesday’s -$0.40 and Monday’s -$0.21);
Aduro Biotech (ADRO +$0.16 after Tuesday’s +$0.30);

Wednesday’s (10 of 17) decliners:

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.70 after Tuesday’s -$0.78 and Monday’s +$4.56);
Regenxbio (RGNX -$2.43);
uniQure NV (QURE -$2.04);
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.37 after Tuesday’s -$0.34 and Monday’s +$1.21);
Mesoblast (MESO -$1.14 after Tuesday’s -$0.89 and Monday’s +$1.93);
bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.90 after Tuesday’s -$0.41 and Monday’s +$2.59);
Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.52);
Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.43 after Tuesday’s -$0.53 and Monday’s +$1.12);
Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.40 after Tuesday’s +$0.37 and Monday’s -$0.06);
Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.35 after Tuesday’s -$0.35);

Closing flat: 2 – ReNeuron (RENE.L) and Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: comparisons

Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 16-upside were +0.05% (RARE) to +10.89% (PSTI) while the 17-downside ranges from -0.51% (EDIT) to -13.33% (BSTG);
Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 13-upside were +0.03% (RGNX) to +13.81% (SLDB) while the 20-downside ranges from -0.41% (PSTI) to -37.50% (BSTG);
Monday’s percentage (%) of the 29-upside were +0.58% (CLLS) to +13.26% (PGEN) while the 4-downside ranges from -1.82 (BSTG) to -3.05% (BLCM);

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. are trending lower, but officials are cautious as students begin returning to school and college campuses. Some colleges have been forced to change to all online learning because of outbreaks. <CNBC>

Wednesday 5.48 cases
Tuesday 5.45 cases
Monday 5.4 cases

Wednesday’s day’s death rate totaled 172,418 after Tuesday’s 171,013 and Monday’s 170,000, <Johns Hopkins University>

Stats:

Upside volume:

Wednesday: 5 out of the 16-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Tuesday: 2 out of the 13-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Monday: 5 out of the 29-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

Wednesday was up +1.03 points or +4.79% at 22.54
Tuesday was up +0.16 points or +0.75% at 21.51
Monday was down -0.70 points or -3.17% at 21.35

Downside volume:

Wednesday: 5 out of the 17-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Tuesday: 3 out of the 20-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Monday: 2 out of the 4-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

August, the second month of Q3 …

Wednesday closed negative with 16 advancers, 17 declines and 2 flats

Tuesday closed negative with 13 advancers, 20 declines and 2 flats

Monday (8/17) closed positive with 29 advancers, 4 declines and 2 flats

Friday closed negative with 10 advancers, 23 decline and 2 flats

Thursday closed positive with 19 advancers, 11 decline and 4 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 13 advancers, 19 declines and 3 flats

Tuesday closed negative with 3 advancers, 32 declines and 1 flat

Monday (8/10) closed positive with 25 advancers, 8 declines and 2 flats

Friday closed positive with 21 advancers, 11 declines and 3 flats

Thursday closed negative with 11 advancers, 23 decline and 1 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 19 advancers, 15 declines and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 13 advancers, 20 declines and 2 flats

Monday (8/3) closed positive with 31 advancers, 1 decline and 3 flats

The Bottom line: from the title, “Judgments will almost always be a process of inference and a product of inductive reasoning.”

It’s not hard to be right so often, it’s about refining expectation, defining insight and NOT being indentured to ANY financial institution! That’s why my “quantamental” blend of the two styles has become common parlance among investors and traders.

On vacation … yet, I end up doing more than usual … there will be a re-do!

As I had stated, sector investors should be prepared for some profit-taking.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.