September 24, 2020 5:35pm

With no support and increasing resistance

Pre-open indication results: 3 HITs and 3 MISSes

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't.

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The Dow closed UP +52.31 points (+0.20%), the S&P closed UP +9.67 points (+0.30%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +39.28 points (+0.37%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose slightly on Thursday as RegMed, cell and gene therapy shares borrowed deeper from Wednesday’s losses while algorithms “ruled’ the latest batch of economic data.

Market sentiment was kept in check, however, as first-time claims for state unemployment benefits totaled 870,000 for the week ended Sept. 19.

 

From this a.m.’s Data Docket; “Stock futures extend losses after worse-than-expected jobless claims … First-time claims for state unemployment benefits were expected to total 850,000 for the most recent week, down slightly from the 860,000 claims reported for the previous week.”

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: volatility, seasonality and political uncertainty undermine markets … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11559

 

 

Pre-open indications: 3 HITS < Biostage (BSTG -$0.22), Athersys (ATHX +$0.09%0; Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.06)> and 3 MISS < Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.15), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS -$0.05), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$2.37)>

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Thursday opened negative at 2/32 and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day at 9/24 and 2 flats, closing negative at 4/29 and 2 flats;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 10/24 and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day at 14/19 and 2 flats, closing negative at 7/27 and 1 flat;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 5/28 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 13/19 and 3 flats, closing positive at 20/13 and 2 flats;
  • Monday opened negative at 1/32 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 1/33 and 1 flat, closing negative at 1/33 and 1 flat;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was extremely LOW with 0 of the 4-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the 6 of 29-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 4-upside were +0.26% (VYGR) to +4.71% (ATHX) while the 29-downside ranges from -0.50% (BLUE) to -12.72% (BSTG); 

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Regenxbio (RGNX), Cellectis SA (CLLS), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Biostage (BSTG) to name 6 of the 29 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI), Athersys (ATHX), Homology Medicine (FIXX), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) to name 4 of the 4 inclining of the 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -1.05% and XBI closed down -0.99%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -1.27% and XBI closed down -3.17%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +0.76% and XBI closed up +0.62%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -2.56% and XBI closed down -3.55%

 

Thursday’s (4 of 4) incliners:

  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.21);
  • Athersys (ATHX +$0.09),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.06),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.03)

Thursday’s (10 of 29) decliners:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$2.73);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$2.37 after Wednesday’s -$1.31);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.53);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$1.44);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.38 after Wednesday’s -$4.12 and Tuesday’s +$3.68);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.16 after Wednesday’s +$0.86, Tuesday’s +$2.722 and Monday’s -$1.34);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.10 after Wednesday’s -$1.85);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.08 after Wednesday’s +$0.20 and Tuesday’s +$0.58);
  • UniQure NV (QURE -$0.81 after Wednesday’s -$2.08, Tuesday’s +$1.32 and Monday’s -$2.96);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.77);

Closing flat: 2 – ReNeuron (RENE.L) and Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: 360 degrees comparisons

  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 4-upside were +0.26% (VYGR) to +4.71% (ATHX) while the 29-downside ranges from -0.50% (BLUE) to -12.72% (BSTG); 
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 7-upside were +0.28% (GBT) to +14.57% (BSTG) while the 27-downside ranges from -0.08% (RARE) to -9.64% (PGEN); 
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 20-upside was +0.07% (BCLI) to 5.25% (FIXX) while the 13-downside ranges from -0.31% (FATE) to -13.22% (BSTG); 
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 1-upside was +12.26% (BSTG) while the33-downside ranges from -0.86% (VYGR) to -10.64% (PGEN); 

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

U.S. jobless claims remain high, having plateaued above 800,000 for weeks now. There hope that Congress could revive stalled stimulus talks, with House Democrats preparing a smaller package to bring Republicans to the table.

  • Thursday 6.93 cases
  • Wednesday 6.89 cases
  • Tuesday 6.86 cases
  • Monday 6.81 M cases

Thursday’s day’s death rate totaled 201,920 after Wednesday’s 200,818, Tuesday’s 200,005, Monday’s 199,513, Friday’s 197,655 and last Thursday’s 196,831 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume: 

  • Thursday: 0 out of the 4-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 3 out of the 7-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 2 out of the 20-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 0 out of the 1-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.07 points or -0.24% at 28.51
  • Wednesday was up +1.72 points or +6.40% at 28.58
  • Tuesday was down -0.92 points or -3.31% at 26.86
  • Monday was up +1.87 points or +7.24% at 27.71

Downside volume:

  • Thursday: 6 out of the 29-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 9 out of the 27-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the33-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

September, the third month of Q3 … check the regression

Thursday closed negative with 4 advancers, 29 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 7 advancers, 27 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed positive with 20 advancers, 13 decliners and 1 flat

Monday (9/21) closed negative with 1 advancer, 33 decliners and 1 flat

Friday closed positive with 29 advancers, 5 decliners and 1 flat

Thursday closed negative with 13 advancers, 20 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 23 advancers, 10 decliners and 2 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 22 advancers, 12 decliners and 1 flat

Monday (9/14) closed positive with 31 advancers, 3 decliners and 1 flat

Friday closed negative with 16 advancers, 17 decliners and 2 flats

Thursday closed negative with 12 advancers, 20 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 27 advancers, 5 decliners and 3 flats

Tuesday (9/10) closed negative with 14 advancers, 19 decliners and 2 flats

Monday was a holiday 

Friday closed negative with 5 advancers, 28 decliners and 2 flats

Thursday closed negative with 2 advancers, 32 decliners and 1 flat

Wednesday closed negative with 18 advancers, 25 decliners and 2 flats

Tuesday (9/1) closed negative with 4 advancers, 29 decliners and 2 flats

 

The Bottom Line: September’s trend is sure’nuf not our friend!

As I had stated, “The path to the next, of the next and the future new normal is likely to be bumpy amid uncertainty over the coronavirus, the US political environment, and US-China tensions.”

Again, another quote reinforces the “bumpy road ahead”, “Claims, arguable the most important high frequency data point currently, missed expectations and moved up week-over-week,” Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere, said in a note Thursday. “With the Fed diminishing its own credibility by continually emphasizing the ineffectiveness of monetary policy and begging for fiscal support, weaker data will have a big impact on risk assets. Especially if the fiscal cliff starts to bite, which some indicators suggests might be starting.”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.