September 25, 2020 5:35pm
Volatility plays both sides as the decliners bounced; but what are the real signs of strength, just being oversold – speculation or FOMO (fear of missing out)
Pre-open indication results: 3 HITs and 1 MISS
An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector. I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't.
Week in review …
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The Dow closed UP +358.52 points (+1.34%), the S&P closed UP +51.87 points (+1.60%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +241.30 points (+2.26%)
Henry’omics:
U.S. stocks rose on Friday as tech shares recovered some of their declines for the month. However, Indexes were still headed for its fourth (4th) consecutive week of losses.
This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: ain’t feelin’ the love ... https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11562
Saying it like it is, “After a buoyant and hopeful summer, financial markets are cooling in the face of reality,” strategists at MRB Partners said in a note. “High-flying tech and tech-related stocks are in a full-blown correction, and weakness has recently spread to broader indexes, with a distinct smell of risk-off in the air. We had expected a gradual, albeit choppy, economic recovery, but it appears that some investors were not prepared for setbacks along the way.” <CNBC>
A side note: Biostage (BSTG +$0.19 to $1.70) – it COST “someone or thing – DST Capital?” 7,763 shares beyond the initial 750 shares traded (early session) to keep it inclined at +$0.19) through-out the session. Question#1: Are the desperate getting more desperate after Thursday’s 700 and Wednesday’s 800 daily share volume?
Pre-open indications: 3 HITs < Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.33), UniQure NV (QURE +$0.19), Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.22), > and 1 MISS <Biostage (BSTG +$0.19) >
RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …
- Friday opened positive at 29/5 and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day at 27/7 and 1 flat, closing positive at 32/2 and 1 flat;
- Thursday opened negative at 2/32 and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day at 9/24 and 2 flats, closing negative at 4/29 and 2 flats;
- Wednesday opened negative at 10/24 and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day at 14/19 and 2 flats, closing negative at 7/27 and 1 flat;
- Tuesday opened negative at 5/28 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 13/19 and 3 flats, closing positive at 20/13 and 2 flats;
- Monday opened negative at 1/32 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 1/33 and 1 flat, closing negative at 1/33 and 1 flat;
Key metrics:
- Sector volume was extremely LOW with 4 of the 32-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the 0 of 2-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday’s percentage (%) of the 32-upside were +0.12% (IONS) to +12.58% (BSTG) while the 2-downside ranges from -0.52% (VYGR) to -4.40% (RENE.L);
Hammered in today’s market:
- ReNeuron (RENE.L), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) to name 2 of the 2 declining of the 35 covered
Jumping with share pricing momentum:
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Ultragenyx (RARE), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), bluebird bio (BLUE) to name 5 of the 32 inclining of the 35 covered
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Friday, the IBB closed up +2.13% and XBI closed up +2.54%
- Thursday, the IBB closed down -1.05% and XBI closed down -0.99%
- Wednesday, the IBB closed down -1.27% and XBI closed down -3.17%
- Tuesday, the IBB closed up +0.76% and XBI closed up +0.62%
- Monday, the IBB closed down -2.56% and XBI closed down -3.55%
Friday’s (10 of 32) incliners:
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.97 after Thursday’s -$1.16, Wednesday’s +$0.86, Tuesday’s +$2.722 and Monday’s -$1.34);
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.06 after Thursday’s -$2.73);
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.92 after Thursday’s -$1.10 and Wednesday’s -$1.85);
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.81);
- bluebird bio (BLUE +$1.37);
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.84 after Thursday’s-$1.53);
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.83);
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.78 after Thursday’s -$1.38, Wednesday’s -$4.12 and Tuesday’s +$3.68);
- Pluristem (PSTI +$0.76);
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.76 after Thursday’s +$0.21);
Friday’s (2 of 2) decliners:
- ReNeuron (RENE.L -$4.00);
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.06 after Thursday’s +$0.03)
Closing flat: 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)
Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: 360 degrees comparisons
- Friday’s percentage (%) of the 32-upside were +0.12% (IONS) to +12.58% (BSTG) while the 2-downside ranges from -0.52% (VYGR) to -4.40% (RENE.L);
- Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 4-upside were +0.26% (VYGR) to +4.71% (ATHX) while the 29-downside ranges from -0.50% (BLUE) to -12.72% (BSTG);
- Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 7-upside were +0.28% (GBT) to +14.57% (BSTG) while the 27-downside ranges from -0.08% (RARE) to -9.64% (PGEN);
- Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 20-upside was +0.07% (BCLI) to 5.25% (FIXX) while the 13-downside ranges from -0.31% (FATE) to -13.22% (BSTG);
- Monday’s percentage (%) of the 1-upside was +12.26% (BSTG) while the33-downside ranges from -0.86% (VYGR) to -10.64% (PGEN);
Sentiment and a few daily indicators:
- Friday 6.98 M cases
- Thursday 6.93 M cases
- Wednesday 6.89 M cases
- Tuesday 6.86 M cases
- Monday 6.81 M cases
Friday’s death rate totaled 202,827 after Thursday’s 201,920, Wednesday’s 200,818, Tuesday’s 200,005, Monday’s 199,513 and last Friday’s 197,655 <Johns Hopkins University>
Stats:
Upside volume:
- Friday: 4 out of the 32-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Thursday: 0 out of the 4-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Wednesday: 3 out of the 7-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Tuesday: 2 out of the 20-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday: 0 out of the 1-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Friday was down -2.13 points or -7.47% at 26.38
- Thursday was down -0.07 points or -0.24% at 28.51
- Wednesday was up +1.72 points or +6.40% at 28.58
- Tuesday was down -0.92 points or -3.31% at 26.86
- Monday was up +1.87 points or +7.24% at 27.71
Downside volume:
- Friday: 0 out of the 2-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Thursday: 6 out of the 29-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Wednesday: 9 out of the 27-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Tuesday: 3 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday: 1 out of the33-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
September, the third month of Q3 …
Friday closed positive with 32 advancers, 2 decliners and 1 flat
Thursday closed negative with 4 advancers, 29 decliners and 2 flats
Wednesday closed negative with 7 advancers, 27 decliners and 1 flat
Tuesday closed positive with 20 advancers, 13 decliners and 1 flat
Monday (9/21) closed negative with 1 advancer, 33 decliners and 1 flat
Friday closed positive with 29 advancers, 5 decliners and 1 flat
Thursday closed negative with 13 advancers, 20 decliners and 2 flats
Wednesday closed positive with 23 advancers, 10 decliners and 2 flats
Tuesday closed positive with 22 advancers, 12 decliners and 1 flat
Monday (9/14) closed positive with 31 advancers, 3 decliners and 1 flat
Friday closed negative with 16 advancers, 17 decliners and 2 flats
Thursday closed negative with 12 advancers, 20 decliners and 3 flats
Wednesday closed positive with 27 advancers, 5 decliners and 3 flats
Tuesday (9/10) closed negative with 14 advancers, 19 decliners and 2 flats
Monday was a holiday
Friday closed negative with 5 advancers, 28 decliners and 2 flats
Thursday closed negative with 2 advancers, 32 decliners and 1 flat
Wednesday closed negative with 18 advancers, 25 decliners and 2 flats
Tuesday (9/1) closed negative with 4 advancers, 29 decliners and 2 flats
The Bottom Line: Indexes rose Friday while RegMed, cell and gene therapy sector shares rallied, overshadowing my own doubts.
I had expected that there would not be all that much activity “suspected” today – wrong, the algorithms pushed “our” universe above the threshold.
I still got on base with three (3) hits of individual “swings”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
