September 29, 2020 8:04am

Topic of the day: What’s the bet on the presidential debate?

Pre-open indications: 7 SELLs 

What I provide is an “intelligence daily” to ensure that shareholders are kept apprised based on a 24-hour surveillance of “our” universe, the RegMed/cell and gene therapy sector and its surrounding markets

Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  My gift to you, I've kept RMi subscription FREE during these COVID-19 and volatile times

 

 


Dow futures are DOWN -0.09% (-25 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.12% (-4 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.34% (-39 points)

 

Stock futures fluctuated to the downside early Tuesday ahead of the first U.S. presidential debate;

European markets retreated with Brexit talks and the first U.S. presidential debate on investors’ radar as the pan-European Stoxx 600 fell -0.5% in early trade;

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index fractionally higher.

 

Data Docket: final euro zone economic sentiment and consumer confidence readings

 

Henry’omics:

The $2.2 trillion stimulus package debate is but a reflection of this polarized election news coverage … the major driver of sentiment for the rest of this week will be the first debate between President Trump and Democratic nominee Biden tonight.

Pearls of info, a continuation from the morning’s sub-title ... debates ordinarily don’t alter the course of history. They haven’t been a major market mover either. But could this hotly anticipated tête-à-tête between President Trump and Democratic challenger Biden may prove different?

That’s the question some investors may be pondering as they brace for Tuesday’s first scheduled presidential debate between the two political opponents. Certainly, the U.S. equity market has moved in sometimes violent fits and starts—mostly lower in September—as the race for the White House has heated up, amid a global viral outbreak that has rocked economies world-wide.

  • On average, going back to 1960, when televised debates started to become more of a fixture in American politics, the S&P 500 index has fallen in the next day and posted lower returns in the 5-day, 10-day and one-month period, according to Ryan Detrick, chief strategist at LPL Financial.
  • Data from Dow Jones on the stock market’s performance after the first presidential debates between the final front-runners show that a 0.14% decline on average on the day after the debate, a 1.51% decline from the first debate to the next, a 2.51% decline between the first debate and the final presidential face-off and a 0.35% slump from the first debate to Election Day. <MarketWatch>

 

Monday night’s post: RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “sector seesaws to a neutral close with low volume setting the tone” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11565

  • The Nasdaq closed UP +203.96 points (+1.87%);
  • The IBB closed up +0.76% and XBI closed up +0.12%;
  • Sector volume was extremely LOW with 2 of the 16-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the 3 of 16-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) was down -0.19 points or -0.72% at 26.19;
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 16-upside was +0.52% (RARE) to +10.83 (MESO) while the 16-downside ranges from -0.28% (NTLA) to -4.35% (ADVM); 

Q3 so far:

  • September, 1 neutral, 7 positive and 11 negative closes with 1 holiday
  • August, 10 positive closes and 11 negative closes
  • July - 11 positive and 11 negative closes with 1 holiday

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:

Maintaining Sell:

Biostage (BSTG) closed up +$0.04 to $1.74 after Friday’s +$0.19 to $1.70, Thursday’s -$0.22 to $1.51, Wednesday’s +$0.22 to $1.73 and last Tuesday’s -$0.23 to $1.51. Question#1: What is the level of debt - on May 1, 2020, BSTG entered into a promissory note with Bank of America, NA (Bank), which provided a loan in the amount of $404,221 (PPP Loan) pursuant to the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) administered by the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA)? Question#2: In the event (serious questions) that any portion of the PPP Loan is not forgiven in accordance with the PPP, following a six-month deferred period that ends November 4, 2020; will BSTG be required to pay the Bank monthly payments of principal and interest to repay the PPP Loan in full on or before the maturity date?

 

Maintaining SELL into Strength:

Athersys (ATHX) closed up again +$0.04 to $2.08 after Friday’s +$0.04 to $2.04, Thursday’s $2.00, Wednesday’s $1.91 and last Tuesday’s $1.97 and has a negative -$0.02 or -0.93% aftermarket indication.

BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.78 to $27.03 after Friday’s $26.25 Thursday’ $26.10, Wednesday’s $27.18 and last Tuesday’s $26.98 and has NO aftermarket indication. Chart is “peaky” and has a 52-week +57.85% - time to let some go;

Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed up $2.70 to $40.50 (an all-time high) after Friday’s $37.80, Thursday’s $35.99, Wednesday’s $36.47 and last Tuesday’s $37.09 with NO aftermarket indication. FATE has a 52-week change of +1.43%, a 52-week low of $12.59 and high of $40.52 and a short percentage (%) of float of -20.78%. Plenty of room to “loosen i.e. profit” a number of shares;

Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed up +$0.65 to $18.50 after Friday’s $17.85, Thursday’s $17.35, Wednesday’s $19.79 and last Tuesday’s $19.10 and has a positive +$0.50 or +2.70% aftermarket indication;

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$0.40 to $83.69 after Friday’s $84.09, Thursday’s $83.31, Wednesday’s $84.69 and last Tuesday’s $88.81 and has a positive +$0.16 or +0.19% aftermarket indication.

Mesoblast (MESO) closed up +$1.90 to $19.44 after Friday’s $17.54, Thursday’s $17.18, Wednesday’s $17.55 and last Tuesday’s $18.14 and has a positive +$0.56 or +2.88% aftermarket indication;

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Sticking to my central theme, “All we have seen are the extremes of sentiment and electronic trading effecting our universe of RegMed, cell and gene therapy companies.”

And how much of this irregularity is due to the head and tailwinds of Washington DC’s polarization and geopolitics?

Reiterating, “I hate to say it, but I’m still telling sector investors that these new highs are fleeting.” Stick by fundamentals …

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.